Marseille the Best Pick in French Derby

Marseille v Monaco
Saturday January 28, 2023, 15:00 ET
At the Stade Velodrome, Marseille

Marseille entertains its Mediterranean neighbors on Saturday in a top four Ligue 1 clash and the home team looks the best pick in the match betting markets.

Who do Bettors Favor?

As you can see from the latest betting at the top rated online sportsbooks we can see that the bookies make the home team Marseille the favorites here, although at longer odds than you would usually expect. Marseille can be backed at +120, while Monaco is a +215 shot and the draw is rated around +270.

Marseille v Monaco
Marseille	+118	+120	+110
Draw	+281	+265	+270
Monaco	+218	+210	+215

In-Form Marseille Looking Up

Apart from a streak of defeats in the fall, this season has been a good one so far for Olympique Marseille, at least on the domestic front. The team was undefeated through nine games to kick off the season and then picked up crucial wins against Monaco and Lyon just before the World Cup hiatus.

Since Ligue 1 action has returned, Marseille has continued that form, beating Lorient, Troyes and Montpellier, as well as winning twice in the French Cup. All of which means that Igor Tudor’s men will head into this game on an eight-match winning run and looking up to the top two in the table.

The success of Tudor’s team is rooted in solid defense, as its five-man unit has the third best defensive record in Ligue 1, although there has been an impressive all around contribution. Between them, the Marseille defenders have scored 14 goals this season, well ahead of the competition.

During this successful run, the Stade Velodrome has once again looked like a tough venue for visiting teams. Marseille has won three consecutive games at home, with an aggregate 10-2 score and has only suffered one home Ligue 1 defeat, against Lens, which is currently in second place.

Monaco Searches for Consistency

Since the domestic season has resumed, Monaco has been searching for consistency of performance. It scored back-to-back wins against Brest and Auxerre, which helped to close the gap behind the top four in Ligue 1, but it was then knocked out of the French Cup by a second tier side, Rodez; a result that was followed by a disappointing 2-2 draw against Lorient.

Some of that lost momentum was regained, however, in its next game when Ajaccio were beaten 7-1 two weeks ago, a result that took Monaco into the top four, on goals scored, overtaking Rennes.

That goals scored figure is the standout stat for Monaco this season. It makes Philippe Clement’s team the second highest scorer in the Ligue, behind PSG, and even when it is not playing at its best, this Monaco team has a dangerous attacking presence.

The problem is the number of goals it has conceded. So far, Monaco has let in 26 goals, including seven since the resumption, of which two came against Rodez of Ligue 2. Fixing that defensive fragility and finding some consistency will be key to Monaco’s top four hopes.

Ligue 1 Betting Head-to-Head

Monaco and Marseille are two of the longest established clubs in Ligue 1 and as both have been near the top of Ligue 1 in recent seasons, their head-to-head record is fairly even.

Both have three games each in the win column, although there is an unusual feature to their rivalry in that the last three games have all seen the visiting team end up as the winner.

Their latest meeting proved to be a thriller. It came in November and saw the visitors Marseille take the lead with a goal from Alexis Sanchez. Monaco fought back well, to go into the lead just after 70 minutes, but when Jordan Veretout scored with seven minutes of normal time to go, it looked as though the game would end in a draw. Yet eight minutes into injury time, Marseille’s Sead Kolasinac scored the winner.

Ligue 1 Betting Team News

Jonathan Clauss of Marseille is expected back in late January, but it seems likely his recovery from a groin strain will not be in time for him to be available here. Eric Bailly, currently loaned from Premier League Manchester United, will miss the game as he is still serving a seven game ban following a red card in a Cup game, and Amine Harit remains a long term Marseille absentee.

The team news at Monaco is more encouraging. Kevin Volland will still be out, due to a rib injury, but otherwise there are no significant injury issues, though Mohamed Camara will be missing as a result of his suspension for earning another booking against Ajaccio.

Ligue 1 Match Betting Pick

Monaco’s ability to score goals means that the team cannot be overlooked and the strong record of visiting teams in this fixture is certainly encouraging for Monaco fans.

Still, there doesn’t seem to be much juice in Monaco’s odds on the match betting market right now, particularly given the team’s inconsistency in the last few weeks. Marseille is a stronger team all-round and at its current price, looks the best bet here.

Marseille To beat Monaco

+121

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