Manchester will be the setting for one of soccer’s ultimate derbies this weekend. Yes that’s right, it is Manchester derby week as City hosts United in east Manchester at the revered Etihad Stadium. You have to go back to 2021 to find the last time United won away at City, but the odds are closer than anticipated this time around. Read on for an expert Manchester Derby prediction and explore Manchester Derby betting stats and tips.
- English Premier League
- Manchester City FC vs Manchester United FC
- December 15, 2024
- 11:30 AM EST
- Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
- Peacock, NBC
Manchester Derby Betting Odds
Manchester City are obviously the favorites to win at home against the struggling Red Devils, but perhaps not quite to the level many would have thought going into this season. A line of (-169) is the best available to back a Man City victory. A draw pays out at (+385). If you fancy Ruben Amorim’s chances of winning in his first Manchester derby, you can get a payout to the tune of (+415).
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about Premier League betting odds.
Man City Suffering Worst Run in Guardiola Era
Manchester City's last six weeks have been an absolute roller coaster. Title dreams have been severely crushed by a dismal run of form that has never been seen under a Pep Guardiola-led team. With just one league victory since October 26, Manchester is now in fourth place on the table, and many are speculating that the end is near. However, the team needs to pick up the pieces quickly, particularly given their arduous schedule of games upcoming.
During this terrible run, the Cityzens have given up several goals to every team save Nottingham Forest. Despite the problems of Foden, Erling Haaland, and Jack Grealish, their offense is still scoring, as evidenced by the eight goals they have scored in their previous four games across all competitions.
After a protracted injury layoff, Kevin de Bruyne's return to the locker room is encouraging. And Phil Foden has resumed his usual place in the lineup after fighting off bronchitis last week. Can Man City regain their former greatness with those additions?
I think the defensive midfield still has a Rodri-sized hole that needs to be filled. Gundogan, one of Guardiola's favorites, has been unable to replace Rodri and is obviously lacking in pace. If Manchester City wants to think they can still compete for a championship, they need to find other options during this winter transfer window.
New Hope for Man United with Ruben Amorim
Finally, a savior has arrived in Manchester. After months of agony and despair seeing their club fall to a perennial mid-table club, a change was made at the top. Erik ten Hag is out and in his stead is Ruben Amorim, Portugal’s newest coaching wunderkind. The head coach at Sporting that oversaw multiple league titles and sustained runs in European competition has brought along renewed hope to Red Devils supporters.
But the results are in, and opinion is divided. While continued optimists stress the importance of time as the manager adjusts to the stylings of the Premier League, doomsayers are already regretting the hire. Amorim has 5 matches under his belt so far, with 2 victories to show for his efforts. Never before has Amorim coached a side outside of Portugal, and his nascent experience with English soccer may be rearing its ugly head.
The English are notoriously impatient when it comes to managerial hirings, and with the new manager bounce now essentially behind him, Amorim must find a way to produce results soon. A statement victory over United’s biggest rival in the Manchester Derby is perhaps the best possible opportunity to turn the corner. What doesn’t help matters is the heavily-publicized departure of Dan Ashworth, an influential figure in United’s front office who reportedly did not see eye-to-eye with his peers on the hiring of Amorim. Ashworth may not be the only big name to leave Manchester soon.
Ruben Amorim has been rotating his squad heavily as he evaluates his talent. The winter transfer window is a perfect opportunity for Amorim to shed perceived dead weight and begin anew. If 2025 is to be a successful one, Amorim will want a locker room that is cohesive and productive. That could prompt the sales of big-name stars, including Marcus Rashford, Antony, and Harry Maguire.
Manchester Derby Betting Prediction
While Manchester City have clearly struggled defensively, I think the betting odds have shifted too far in favor of that narrative. Nottingham Forest were held to a bagel when Man City last hosted at the Etihad. In a similar vein, Man United were fruitless in their endeavor at Emirates Stadium last week.
My projections indicate there is value in fading Manchester United’s offense as well. Calculations suggest the Red Devils score 60.27% of the time, good for an implied probability of (-152). That means there is value in taking their team total under 0.5 at (+200).
While there is value on Man United team total under 1.5 goals as well, I am not a fan of playing odds at such high juice. One has to pay a pretty penny to get that number, and I would rather be on the side of variance in this beautiful game. I believe a City clean sheet is not a far stretch and will recommend taking a punt on it at Bovada for a 2:1 payout.
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