Leverkusen is booked to host Milan in their second game of the Champions League this season. Last season’s Europa League finalists and Bundesliga champions are back in action with roughly the same squad as before, including esteemed manager Xabi Alonso. Leverkusen have garnered a reputation for their late-game heroics, a specialty AC Milan excel in as well. Read on for an expert Leverkusen vs Milan betting prediction and explore a breakdown of Champions League stats.
- UEFA Champions League, league phase
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs AC Milan
- September 24, 2024
- 3 PM EST
- BayArena
- Fubo, Paramount+
Leverkusen vs Milan Betting Odds
Bayer Leverkusen are odds-on favorites to win at home and begin their Champions League campaign with 6 points. They can be bet at a current line of (-161). Milan will look to pull off the upset and earn their first points as (+425) underdogs. A draw is available at (+330), if you believe teams could be tied at the end of the match (there will be no extra time or penalty kicks).
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about Champions League betting in 2024.
UEFA Champions League: New Format for 2024-25
Since June, the UEFA Champions League has undergone significant changes. The group stage is eliminated in favor of a "league phase" in the new model. Based on their UEFA club coefficient, the 36 teams are divided into four pots of nine clubs each for this first phase. By coincidence, Monaco hosted this year's draw.
All clubs will be ranked 1 through 36 based on points at the end of the league phase, which saw them face eight different opponents (four at home and four away). All top 8 finishers automatically advance to the round of 16. The following 16 go into a double-leg knockout phase of the playoffs. The losers and the final 12 teams from the league phase are formally eliminated, while the victors are then paired again in the Round of 16.
This is all pure speculation, but it's possible that the new structure will increase the number of draws and low-scoring games in the Champions League. There is a lower threshold to reach the knockout stage because there is a greater pool of competitors. It wouldn't surprise me if coaches began to play more conservatively because they understand how important it is to win games.
Milan Hoping for European and Domestic Success This Season
Internationally, Milan is one of the most successful clubs on the planet. AC Milan has won the third-most international trophies in the world, only behind Boca Juniors and Independiente. But their last European trophy came in 2006-07, when they won the Champions League with Andrea Pirlo and Filippo Inzaghi.
Last week we witnessed Milan upset Inter in the Derby della Madonnina. Milan was technically the home side, but were playing the match in their shared home of San Siro. It was a thoroughly deserved win for Milan, who accrued over an expected goal more than their opponents.
The victory was a massive relief for Milan boss Paulo Fonseca, who had been under pressure from the I Rossoneri tifo. Fonseca has overseen a number of disappointing performances in the past month, including a home defeat to Liverpool and a pair of draws in Serie A and a loss to Parma of all clubs.
Christian Pulisic has truly come into his own at Milan after struggling at Chelsea. The American wonderkid has grown up in European club dressing rooms and now leads his team as arguably the best player. Pulisic leads the team in scoring with 3 goals and is tied with Rafael Leao for most assists, giving him 5 total goal contributions through the club’s first 5 domestic games.
Leverkusen vs Milan Betting Breakdown and Free Pick
Milan have the most goals scored in Serie A and Leverkusen similarly boast the second-highest tally in the Bundesliga. These teams love to keep up a pace and run up the score, rarely shy to commit numbers in attack. Leverkusen are also one of the best build-up teams in the world and should have no issue carving through a fragile Milan backline that gave up 3 goals to Liverpool in their last match, even after taking an early lead.
A total at a flat line of 3 is far too low for this matchup. Yes, both teams will be on less rest than is typical of a domestic fixture, but since it is the Champions League you can trust they will put up their better lineups. Every single one of Milan’s matches this season, in all competitions, has reached this number. And for Leverkusen, all but once (a cup tie in DfB Pokal).
Betting the over is a no-brainer here, but the line is moving. Therefore, I have written this article well in advance so you can get your money down before this total inevitably climbs up further. I would not be surprised in the slightest to see it close at 3.5. But at the moment, pay a little juice and sit comfortably with an over 3 bet knowing there is far greater likelihood this match goes over than it does under, and you’ll get full money back in the event of a push.
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