The time has come again for Milan to play Inter in the storied Derby della Madonnina, which many refer to as the Milan Derby. The leadership of AC Milan has changed, with Sergio Conceicao taking over for Paulo Fonseca, his Portuguese counterpart. With a victory and a Napoli defeat, who travel to Roma this week, Inter will have the chance to take control of the Scudetto race. Continue reading for an expert Milan Derby prediction and explore tips and stats for Inter Milan betting.
- AC Milan vs Internazionale
- January 28, 2025
- 12 PM EST
- San Siro, Milan, Italy
- Fubo, FOX Deportes, Paramount+
Milan Derby: AC Milan vs Inter Milan Betting Odds
Although Inter is the favorite, Milan is officially the host team and will have additional fan privileges at the San Siro this weekend. In regulation, the Nerazzurri are about even money at (+101) to win. The home team has odds of (+288) to defeat Inter for the third straight time. The payout for a draw is (+260).
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about soccer betting odds.
Milan Making Comeback Victories a Habit
Last week's match served as a reflection of Milan's struggles over their turbulent season. Milan is outside the top six, which is indicative of the positions required for 2025 European qualification. Paulo Fonseca's final days at Milan came to an end before the Supercoppa Italiana after their lackluster start. That left Sergio Conceicao to complete the task and relish the results of Stefano Pioli's initial efforts in 2023-24.
Indeed, Milan's runner-up finish that year under Pioli secured them a spot in the four-team playoff competition. Conceicao won his first two games as manager right away, including the final with Inter as a Milan Derby. Their victory over Parma on Saturday, overcoming a 2-1 deficit in the 80th minute, was reminiscent of that performance against Internazionale. The team is now just five points behind Lazio in fourth place.
Under Conceicao's guidance, the Milanese have only suffered one defeat (away to Juventus). There is an overall feeling of positive hope at San Siro. After defeating your biggest rivals, winning trophies in the middle of winter, and only losing once in your previous 11 games, how could there not be? With the Milan Derby this week and a Coppa Italia quarterfinal matchup against Roma, Milan will have an opportunity to build on those positive vibes.
But without some transfer rumors, a January soccer breakdown would not feel right. Feyenoord and Milan have been negotiating for Santiago Gimenez. The striker might be helpful to Milan, whose offense has been surprisingly weak this season. However, Tottenham is also interested in the 22-year-old Mexican international. Gimenez’s purple patch culminated in a brace against Bayern last week in the Champions League.
Inter On the Hunt for New Wingbacks Pending Buchanan Departure
Following consecutive clean sheets in the previous week, Inter appeared to have patched their defensive holes. Concerning signals for a team that is usually impermeable at the back were a home draw against Bologna, in which they gave up goals twice, and a home concession to Empoli. However, Inter’s hosts were unsuccessful in their attempts to score in their visits to Sparta Praha and Lecce. When they play AC Milan on Sunday and Monaco on Wednesday, their defensive prowess in Milan will yet again be put to the test.
Canadian international Tajon Buchanan appears to be leaving Giuseppe Meazza, based on rumors of a loan to Villarreal. The defenseman joined Internazionale from Club Brugge, but he hasn't left an impression. According to Jesse Marsch, manager of the Canadian national team, Buchanan told him he wanted to play somewhere where he would have more playing time. Sources indicate that if Inter decides to bid Buchanan farewell, they will try to sign a wingback in his place.
Inter needs a good supply of wingbacks to fall back on in the event of weariness or injury due to their back three tactical style. As one of the top teams in Europe, Inter plays a lot of games and often go deep into tournaments, resulting in a congested schedule requiring many talented players to be available on the bench. Although a suitable candidate has not yet been identified, it is thought that Inter does not consider four wingbacks to be sufficient.
Milan Derby Prediction: Free Inter Milan Betting Pick
Under Conceicao, Milan is showing their teeth. Exhibit A is Conceicao's postgame altercation with Davide Calabria, which shows how much smarter, more assured, and more fierce they have appeared. However, compared to the majority of the clubs they have played against, Inter is a whole different beast. Additionally, they have become less effective at attacking when up against defenses that are better than average. Cagliari and Girona reduced Milan to just one goal, and Juventus kept them scoreless.
I anticipate Sunday's match to be cagey and low-scoring, despite the excitement of Milan's previous encounter with Parma. Inter may have the finest defense on the continent, but Milan's home defense is underappreciated. However, I believe that from a betting standpoint, Milan's incapacity to score is worth more than Inter's.
To add fuel to the fire, this isn't a "real" home game because Inter isn't going anywhere. San Siro is the same stadium they call home, albeit somewhat redecorated this weekend. According to my calculations, Milan to finish with under 0.5 goals should be priced at (+132). However, this line is in the (+175) range for the majority of top online sportsbooks.
BetOnline is willing to pay (+205) to see Inter maintain a clean sheet this weekend. If you want a less risky play, there is a lot of value on the under 2.5 total goals, but I believe this is the move to make. I predict that Inter will win 1-0 or 2-0, so I'll wager that Milan won't score.
Top Sportsbooks for Inter Milan Betting
Explore some of the best sportsbooks for online betting below. Each website is reviewed by OnlineSportsBetting for user experience, customer service, new member promos, and more.
-
50% bonus up to $1000Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
-
EXCLUSIVE BONUS125% up to $3,125Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
-
50% up to $500Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
-
100% up to $1,000Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
-
50% bonus up to $1000Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly