Go Low with Goals at the Emirates

Arsenal v Southampton
Friday, April 21 2023, 15:00 ET
At Emirates Stadium

Arsenal is expected to easily dispose of Southampton at the Emirates Stadium on Friday night but this will be a tense encounter and bettors may be wise to go low in the Total Goals market.

Who do Bettors Favor?

Checking out the top-rated sportsbooks we can see that bettors are heavily favoring the home team as it bids to regain momentum in the Premier League. Arsenal is as short as -530 with some bookmakers, while the draw is a big price at between +610 and +665 and Southampton is a huge underdog.

Arsenal v Southampton
Arsenal	-515	-526	-530
Draw	+665	+610	+625
Southampton	+1400	+1375	+1300

Pressure Starting to Tell for Arsenal

Arsenal's youthful team was always going to face a tough examination in the closing weeks of the season and there are signs that the pressure is starting to tell for the league leaders. Having looked unstoppable for much of the season, Arsenal has now dropped four points in two games, which has enabled Manchester City to close the gap to four points with one game in hand.

Finishing with a point at Anfield was not a disaster, given the talent in the Liverpool ranks, although the fact that Arsenal surrendered a 2-0 lead was a worrying sign, and alarm bells have started to ring after the same players lost another 2-0 lead, this time against West Ham, at the weekend.

The Premier League is still in Arsenal's hands, but the Gunners face a massive test after this game, when they travel to the Etihad Stadium to face City. A win here and a draw in Manchester would leave Arsenal's fate in its own hands with only five games remaining, but anything less than a win against Southampton would hand the initiative to Pep Guardiola's men and they are unlikely to hand it back.

Southampton Hopeful in London

Four points separate Southampton from Premier League safety, but the Saints still have winnable games remaining if they can find late-season form.

The team's performance away from St Mary's is slightly better than at home, so the fact that three of Southampton's next four matches are on the road could be advantageous.

In the past ten years, the typical amount of points required for Premier League survival has been 35, while the highest number is 38 and the lowest is 29. So with only 23 points currently, Southampton travels to North London on Friday needing 12 more from its remaining seven. This is the most difficult fixture of the seven, so anything it can gain in London will be a big boost to Southampton's hopes.

EPL Betting Head-to-Head

This rivalry dates back to 1927, when Arsenal defeated Southampton 2-1 in an FA Cup match, and the teams have met 105 times throughout their history.

Since Arsenal has been in the English Premier League since 1919, such a long head-to-head record is testament to Southampton's ability to remain in the top tier of the sport over the decades, despite the fact that it has historically struggled against the North London club.

Southampton has prevailed in just 23 games, while Arsenal has won 53 games, with 29 games ending in a draw. Southampton's best run of form occurred in the mid-1960s, when it won three consecutive games, but it has also performed well against Arsenal in recent months, winning 1-0 at St. Mary's in April and drawing 1-1 there in October last year.

EPL Team News

With the pressure mounting, Mikel Arteta may have hoped for some positive team news in recent days, but it has been relatively scarce. Mohamed Elneny and Takehiro Tomiyasu won't see the field again this season, and Arteta admitted last week that William Saliba isn't likely to be available for this match or the match against City. In more positive news, it seems that Oleksandr Zinchenko, who missed the game against West Ham, will be available for this one.

Tino Livromento and Juan Larios are still long-term absentees for Southampton, while Mohamed Salisu and Mislav Orsic are also unlikely to feature. Ainsley Maitland-Niles is unavailable as he is on loan from Friday's opponents, but Che Adams has an outside chance of returning for this match.

EPL Match Betting Pick

As Arsenal is priced very short in the match betting markets, many bettors will focus on the Total Goals betting options here.

Given that this is the top team taking on the bottom team, goals are to be anticipated, but this game may not play out that way. It's worth noting that Southampton has conceded just twice in its last four road games, which include contests against Manchester United and Chelsea. Add some Arsenal jitters to the mix, and this match could end up being much lower scoring than people expect.

”Under Aresnal v Southampton

+106

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