The 2024 Major League Soccer season is in its twilight moment as teams return from the summer break. The Leagues Cup culminated last week with Columbus taking the grand prize, but there is still plenty of silverware up for grabs. The Western Conference title is still wide open, along with the MLS Cup and Top Goalscorer. Read on to access expert MLS betting predictions and explore stats and a breakdown of the odds for the MLS Cup.
- Major League Soccer
- Based in United States and Canada
- 29 total clubs
- Regular season culminates in MLS Cup playoff tournament
- MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
MLS Betting: Odds for MLS Cup
Inter Miami are a big favorite to win the MLS Cup with Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez. The Herons are (+160) to win their first-ever MLS Cup and second-ever trophy (Leagues Cup, 2023). LAFC represents the biggest favorite from the Western Conference at (+600), along with their local rivals LA Galaxy at (+900). Columbus and Cincinnati follow at (+1200) each.
MLS 
Miami +160 +160 +160 LAFC +550 +600 +600 LA Galaxy +900 +700 +700 Columbus +1100 +1200 +1200 Cincinnati +1000 +1200 +1200 Salt Lake +1400 +2000 +2000 Vancouver +2200 +2000 +2000 NY Red Bulls +2500 +2500 +2500 New York City +2800 +2800 +2800 Charlotte +4000 +4000 +4000 Colorado +4000 +4000 +4000 Seattle +4000 +4000 +4000 Austin +6600 +8000 +6600 Dallas +8000 +10000 +6600 Toronto +8000 +10000 +6600 Houston +8000 +8000 +8000 Minnesota +6600 +6600 +8000 Orlando +6600 +8000 +8000 Portland +5000 +6600 +8000 Atlanta +8000 +10000 +10000 New England +12500 +15000 +10000 Philadelphia +10000 +10000 +10000 Chicago +15000 +15000 +12500 Nashville +12500 +12500 +12500 Montreal +10000 +10000 +15000 DC United +12500 +10000 +15000 St. Louis +15000 +25000 +25000 Sporting KC +15000 +25000 +25000 San Jose +50000 +250000 +250000
Want to better understand the soccer futures market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about MLS betting in 2024.
Should You Bet on Inter Miami?
Inter Miami are (+160) favorites to win the MLS Cup, a strong indictment on their ability to win a tournament upon the conclusion of the season. Lionel Messi should be healthy in time to return for their postseason, and they will likely be the number one overall seed in the bracket. Without Messi, they have still looked very strong.
I was wrong in my MLS futures preview earlier this year about their chances of winning it all. I believed Messi would be injury-prone and Miami would struggle in his absence. While I was right about the first prediction, I was wrong about the second. Miami don’t look one beat off from the version of themselves with Messi starting, and should easily win the initial round in which they have a Best-of-Three series.
But I still believe at (+160), Miami has far too high of a price to trust them winning three single-elimination ties. They will likely host these, but I could see a strong performance from Columbus, Red Bulls, LAFC, and even LA Galaxy being enough to knock them out. They actually are not even that stellar at home, with only +0.33 xGD. I advise staying away from betting on Messi and Co.
Why LAFC are West Favorites Despite Being in Second Place
LAFC are currently sitting in second place in the Western Conference on 47 total points. But the curious thing about their position is they are two games behind everyone else. This means that they could pick up 6 points in those two extra games in hand, and be in first place with 53 points over the LA Galaxy. While that is not guaranteed by any means, it is the upside that gives them such an advantage.
Additionally, they already have the best goal differential in the MLS and have many underlying metrics that go in their favor. They have an incredible +1.33 xGD at home, nearly 25% higher than the next closest club in the entire league (NY Red Bulls). They are also the only other team (besides Columbus) who have a positive xGD on the road.
If LAFC knows they are close to winning the Western Conference, they have a favorable schedule in their final four games to make a push. They host St. Louis and San Jose, along with trips to Kansas City and Vancouver. The first three teams just mentioned all sit in the bottom three places in the conference.
While LAFC are already favorites, I think they should be minus money to win the West with newly-signed French star Olivier Giroud joining them for the final stretch. I will be backing them to do so for a full unit.
MLS Betting: Denis Bouanga Should be Top Goalscorer Favorite
The Top Goalscorer award will come down to the wire this season, as three players are just one goal away from the lead. Christian Benteke of DC United and Cristian Arango of Real Salt Lake are tied with 17, while Denis Bouanga of LAFC has 16. There are still some outside candidates who could make a run: Luis Suarez should get plenty of chances with Lionel Messi still nursing an injury, and Daniel Gazdag heads a lethal Philadelphia Union attack.
But it is Bouanga who jumps off the board for me. As discussed earlier, LAFC still have two games in hand compared to most of the MLS. While Bouanga will receive less opportunity with Olivier Giroud now starting for the club, he has those two games ahead of his competition. That makes the upside apparent for a guy tabbed as the 3rd-likelist player to win Top Goalscorer just one goal behind.
How Denis Bouanga Can Outpace the Competition
Additionally, Bouanga has accrued the most expected goals of any player in the league at the moment. He has been less efficient than Lionel Messi, Cristian Arango, and Christian Benteke, however. But efficiency does not win Top Goalscorer, volume does.
But be careful where you bet this. At BetUS, they are offering (+400) for Bouanga in the Top Goalscorer market. It is better to take Bouanga in a market labeled “Top Goalscorer” rather than “Golden Boot.” This is because if two players are tied for the Golden Boot, the first tiebreaker is assists. Messi and Cristian Arango are ahead of Bouanga in assists.
While Bounga could still win the Golden Boot in a tiebreaker scenario, you are introducing more uncertainty to your bet. Unless you can find a price much better than the (+400) offered at most sportsbooks in a Golden Boot market, I would only bet Bouanga to be the Top Goalscorer.
Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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