Athletic will host Celta in Basque Country on Friday as they hope to build on their back-to-back victories. The visitors currently sit in the dreaded relegation zone with only 7 points earned through the first dozen games. Conversely, Ernesto Valverde’s side are currently within the top 5 of La Liga. Continue reading to access an expert Athletic vs Celta de Vigo prediction and explore the latest news in Athletic Bilbao soccer.
- Athletic Club vs Real Club Celta de Vigo, La Liga
- November 10, 2023
- 3 PM EST
- San Mames, Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain
- ESPN+
Athletic vs Celta de Vigo Betting Odds
Athletic are the odds-on favorites as they host Celta in Basque Country. The club is lined at (-169), good for an implied probability to win of 62.8%. Celta de Vigo are big underdogs at (+520), a market-best price currently available at highly-rated online sportsbook BetOnline. A draw would leave bettors with a (+325) payout at BetOnline as well.
To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our soccer betting tips and learn about La Liga betting odds.
Athletic Bilbao's Cultural Significance
Much like fellow La Liga members FC Barcelona, Athletic Club in Bilbao is deeply intertwined with the region's culture. Bilbao, located in northern Spain, serves as the unofficial capital of Basque Country. The club is renowned for its cantera policy, which prioritizes the development of young Basque talents and the recruitment of players from other Basque clubs.
Athletic's official policy revolves around signing players who are native to or have undergone football training within the broader Basque Country. This includes regions like Biscay, Gipuzkoa, Álava, and Navarre in Spain, as well as Labourd, Soule, and Lower Navarre in France. Since 1912, Athletic has exclusively fielded players meeting these Basque criteria, setting it apart in the realm of European football. While the club's emphasis on nurturing local talent and fostering club loyalty is widely respected, its limited opportunities for foreign players have been a subject of criticism.
Athletic Bilbao Recent Results and Schedule
Athletic are coming off a thrilling 3-2 victory over Villareal last weekend. The Basque outfit jumped to a 3-goal lead before almost caving late. Villareal scored twice in two minutes to make it a one-score game with 3 minutes, but they were unable to complete the comeback. The victory made it only one loss in their last 5 matches across all competitions.
Athletic must stay in the top 6 to earn European qualification. Two straight 8th-placed finishes in La Liga have kept them out of continental competitions lately. The Bilbao-based team will look for more production from Nico and Inaki Williams for support, both of whom scored against Villareal.
Celta de Vigo Showed Out Well Last Match
Celta looked strong against Sevilla in their most recent outing, holding the Southern side to only one goal in a draw. The Galicians still have plenty of work to do if they wish to remain in the top Spanish flight. They only have one win so far this season to go along with 4 draws and 7 losses.
However, when looking at advanced statistics such as expected goals, it is clear Celta are better than they appear. The club has accumulated over 1.4 expected goals per game, but are only actually gaining 0.92. Additionally, the club gives up 1.67 goals per game, but only 1.44 expected goals. This means there is a 0.71 goals per game discrepancy between what we would expect from Celta compared to their actual results.
These numbers are quite alarming and indicate bettors may be getting some value on a club that has been unfortunate to garner such poor performances in La Liga. They may be a much stronger club than they look on paper and because of that, the lines from sportsbooks may be off. Additionally, Celta have won 2 out of their last 3 games vs Athletic. In their last game at San Mames, they lost 2-1, an admirable effort for a typically worse side on the road.
Athletic vs Celta de Vigo Prediction and Free Betting Pick
Celta de Vigo are a better team than their recent results indicate. Despite a poor run of form, they looked strong against Sevilla and their expected goals prove they are actually a decent club in La Liga. Celta have had success against Athletic in the last two years, and have proven they can hang with top sides.
I think backing Celta de Vigo is a smart play in this matchup. However, I am not totally convinced they can earn a result. Therefore, I think it’s best to look at the asian handicap, currently set at +1. I think it’s best to lay a little juice and take Celta +1 at (-115) just in case Athletic score a late goal to spoil Celta’s efforts. Besides, this club is better in the first half than later, so this is an insurance policy if they get too exhausted late.
To learn more about betting on soccer matches like this La Liga fixture, check out our comprehensive soccer betting guide which covers everything from soccer odds to betting tips and strategies.
Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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