The Copa del Rey kicks off with an unexpected final showdown at Estadio La Cartuja in Seville, Spain, where two unlikely finalists will clash on Saturday. Athletic Club aims to clinch their first Copa title in over 40 years, while Real Mallorca seeks their first triumph since 2003. Stay tuned for an expert Copa del Rey prediction, along with insights into stats and the latest Copa del Rey odds for the 2024 tournament.
- Athletic Club vs RCD Mallorca
- Copa del Rey Final
- April 6, 2024
- 4 PM EST
- ESPN+
- Estadio La Cartuja, Seville, Spain
Copa del Rey Prediction: Who do Bettors Favor?
This season, the Spanish Cup appears to be destined for the Basque Country, with Athletic leading as favorites with odds of (-145). On the other hand, Mallorca, representing the island, seeks to defy the odds as underdogs with odds of (+425). For those anticipating a draw and the possibility of extra time, the odds are set at (+270).
To better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market, see our soccer betting tips and learn about La Liga betting odds.
Copa del Rey Format and Results in 2024
Established in 1903, the Copa del Rey holds the distinction of being the oldest Spanish football tournament played nationally. Winning the Copa del Rey not only guarantees qualification for the UEFA Europa League in the subsequent season but also grants entry into the Spanish Supercup.
In a recent development, each round of the competition now consists of single-leg ties, with lower division teams hosting the matches. The majority of top-level clubs enter at the First Round, except for four teams participating in the Supercopa de España, who join in the Third Round, the last 32. Athletic Bilbao has notably adapted well to this format, triumphing in a total of 21 single-leg ties and securing a spot in the two-legged semi-finals in each of the initial five seasons under this structure. The final is played as a one-off match at a neutral location.
Athletic Club Season Breakdown
The Lions have emerged victorious over Rubi, Cayon, Eibar, Alaves, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid in their journey to this season's final. Their exceptional display in the semi-finals, where they dominated Atletico 4-0 on aggregate, solidified their place in the final. Additionally, a 4-2 triumph over Barcelona in the quarterfinals further strengthens their claim to the final spot.
Athletic Club holds the distinction of being the second-most frequent winner of the Copa del Rey trophy, clinching the Spanish Cup 23 times in their history. However, they have endured a title drought since 1984, despite reaching the finals six times during that period. This includes consecutive runner-up finishes in 2020 and 2021. Their impressive tally underscores their success in the early 20th century, before the dominance of clubs like Real Madrid and Barcelona.
Athletic is grappling with concerns over Nico Williams' fitness due to a muscular problem, with a last-minute decision expected regarding the Spain international's participation this weekend. Additionally, Yeray Alvarez's availability remains uncertain after being substituted early in the match against Real Madrid.
In La Liga, Julen Agirrezabala currently ranks behind Unai Simon in the goalkeeping hierarchy. Nevertheless, Agirrezabala is slated to retain his position for the final in the Copa del Rey.
Mallorca Recent Form and Injury Updates
Mallorca's journey to the Copa del Rey final holds significant historical weight, marking only their fourth appearance in the tournament's history. The islanders aim to replicate their 2003 triumph over Recreativo de Huelva, securing a 3-0 victory highlighted by two goals from Samuel Eto'o. Priced at (+200), they are eager to lift the trophy as underdogs this year.
In the next match, Mallorca is expected to rely on Dominik Greif, their second-choice goalkeeper. Unfortunately, Omar Mascarell will be sidelined due to a hamstring injury sustained against Valencia. Additionally, Martin Valjent's participation is uncertain due to a thigh issue, pending assessment before the match. Samu Costa, Toni Lato, Dani Rodriguez, and Antonio Raillo are likely to return to the starting lineup after being benched in the previous match, indicating preparations for this weekend's grand finale.
Copa del Rey Prediction and Free Betting Pick
In their previous encounter, Athletic Club asserted their dominance comprehensively, securing a 4-0 victory on February 2. Mallorca struggled to create opportunities, managing just 0.37 expected goals from 6 shots while playing away. Looking at their overall head-to-head record, Athletic holds the advantage, having lost only twice in 16 total meetings.
Mallorca is expected to adopt a defensive approach in the Spanish Cup final, yet containing the attacking prowess of Inaki Williams and his teammates poses a significant challenge. On the other hand, Athletic Club demonstrated defensive solidity by keeping clean sheets against formidable opponents like Atletico Madrid and Barcelona, prior to their recent match against Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu.
Initially considering betting on the under, the line has since increased significantly, making it less appealing. Similarly, backing Athletic Club seems too risky. However, there's an opportunity in the team total market that aligns with both sentiments. With the likelihood of Athletic keeping another clean sheet in a slow match, the (-105) line offers value. Therefore, I'll wager half a unit on that outcome.
Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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