Argentina vs Canada: More Penalty Kicks at Copa America?

Argentina and Canada meet in the semi-finals of the Copa America this Tuesday. Both teams advanced past the quarter-finals via penalty kicks after 1-1 finishes. Argentina outlasted Ecuador despite Messi missing their first penalty shot, while Canadian keeper Maxime Crepeau made a big save to redeem himself after being caught far from net for a Venezuelan equalizer. Continue reading to access an expert Argentina vs Canada prediction and explore stats and a breakdown for Copa America betting in 2024.

CONMEBOL Copa America Semi-final
July 9, 2024 (Tuesday)
8 PM EST
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Argentina vs Canada
FOX

Argentina vs Canada Prediction: Who do Bettors Favor?

Argentina are prohibitive favorites to earn their 7th-ever spot in the Copa America final according to the top online sportsbooks. La Seleccion are (-262) to win in 90 minutes. Canada is just (+865) to achieve that same feat, while a draw would pay out bettors handsomely at (+400).

Copa America
Argentina	-262	-295	-275	-275	-275
Canada	+865	+845	+750	+770	+770
Draw	+382	+400	+390	+370	+370

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Does Argentina Have a Cakewalk to the Final?

Argentina are back in the semi-finals of an international tournament for the first time since defeating Croatia 3-0 in the 2022 World Cup. La Seleccion earned their way to the final four after getting past stubborn Ecuador in penalty kicks. A late header in stoppage time from Kevin Rodriguez forced the tiebreaker, which also signified Argentina’s first concession at the 2024 Copa America.

The group stage was a very friendly one for the tournament favorites. They were bracketed off into a group consisting of Peru, Canada, and Chile. Peru never scored a goal during their time in the USA this summer, while Chile seemed like a far cry from the squad that sent Lionel Messi into temporary international hiatus after winning in 2016. Canada put up a fight in the first half, but the pace of the match got away from them, leading to a 2-0 defeat.

Argentina To Win

-275

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Can Cinderella Team Canada Compete with La Seleccion?

The first match to kick off at the 2024 Copa America was Argentina vs Canada, so this week we get a rare look at a rematch within an international tournament. It wasn’t necessarily smooth sailing for the Argentinians, as the score remained level at halftime. But Canada never truly tested Argentina’s backline, giving the feeling that the best-case scenario for the Canadians is a penalty-kick shootout.

Hoping to win in penalty kicks against Argentine keeper Emiliano Martinez will be seen as a futile effort by many viewers though, and rightfully so. Martinez has saved nine of 24 penalties faced with his national team, with an additional three going off target. That is good for a prevention rate of 50%, an astonishing number. To put it into perspective, the average chance of scoring a penalty kick is 79%.

To predict a future outcome, we must consider not only historical results but also potential factors that could make an impact in the rematch. Unfortunately, not much has changed since that inaugural match of the Copa America. Canada was able to defeat Peru and draw Chile thanks to red cards received by their opponents in each fixture. They will also be without James Buchanan for the rematch, who suffered a broken leg in training last week.

Canada To Win

+865

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Argentina vs Canada Prediction and Free Euro Betting Pick

At the current price, there is really no value on Argentina. They were barely able to get by Ecuador in their last match and enter Tuesday night for what will be their 5th game in 20 days. Fatigue will almost certainly play a role in these semi-finals and final to come this week, shortening the margins between any two sides. If you like Messi and Co. to keep things rolling, I would recommend a “win to nil” or “shutout win” wager, backing Argentina to score at least once while holding the Maple Leafs scoreless.

But if you are on the other side of the spectrum, and believe there is still more left in this Canada team, perhaps a better angle than their moneyline is the draw. Draw bets in knockout stages of international events are incredibly lucrative, as many sides tense up and play it safe to avoid defeat. In this tournament alone, 3 of the 4 knockout games played so far have ended level. With a Canada goal seeming very unlikely given their output in the last match between these two, 0-0 seems in play.

Final Prediction for 2024 Copa America Semifinal Match

Instead of picking a side, I will advocate for a bet that targets the 1st half total. In the last game, Canada was able to match the high pace set by Argentina and effectively defend against crosses and wide balls, using their speed and athleticism to make big plays. Neither team could score by halftime, and I think that is very possible again here.

A draw in the first half is just (+135), but backing neither team to score is (+190). I think getting the better price while potentially missing out on a 1-1, 2-2, or further scoreline is worth the risk.

This game should be low-scoring in general, but I fear Canada will not be able to hold on until the final whistle.

Eventually, the high intensity and quick turnarounds that the Copa America demands of its participants will wear them down, leading to some late goals. I will conservatively back each side to remain solid defensively for the first frame at least, assuming Argentina likely prevails 1-0 or 2-0 by full time.

Under 0.5 1st Half Total Goals

+190

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Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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