An LA Draw is the Best Pick

LA Galaxy v Philadelphia
Saturday 8^th July, 2023, 2230 ET
Dignity Health Sports Park

An improving LA Galaxy is strong enough to match Philadelphia at Dignity Health Park on Saturday, where the draw is the best pick.

Who do Bettors Favor?

According to the best bookmakers (and you can check out our top sportsbook reviews here) the visiting team Philadelphia Union is the favorite with bettors. Philadelphia is available at +145, while the draw is rated as the underdog outcome at +280 and the home win is +169.

LA Galaxy v Philadelphia
LA Galaxy	+175	+169	+165
Draw	+280	+260	+270
Philadelphia	+145	+149	+145

LA Galaxy Improving Slowly

LA Galaxy has gone six games without a loss but is still towards the bottom of the Western Conference, sitting second from last. After a victory over Salt Lake City, there were four draws before the most recent match, when LAFC was defeated in a dramatic episode of El Trafico.

Given the poor beginning to the season that Greg Vanney's squad had, even though their form isn't fantastic, it counts as a remarkable improvement, and Vanney will work to keep the momentum going.

The team's sluggish start is still hurting its Conference standing. In its first 14 games, Galaxy only managed two victories, losing nine of them. According to the statistics, Galaxy still has the worst defensive and offensive records in the West. Although the Galaxy has plenty of time to qualify for the playoffs, it cannot afford to let its momentum wane.

Philadelphia Aim to Regain Momentum

Philadelphia Union, which comes this match in fifth place in the Eastern Conference and only four points behind Nashville in second place, is in a far stronger position than LA Galaxy, at least on paper. The problem is that Jim Curtin's team is moving in the opposite direction.

Philadelphia appeared to be on track to once again rule the East with a nine-game unbeaten streak between April and June that included seven victories and two draws. But over its last four games, during which it only accrued four points, that streak came to an end.

The most worrying aspect for Philadelphia is its away form. The last three games on the road have yielded just one point and the latest defeat, against Atlanta, was a shocking one, in which Philadelphia lost 2-0 and registered only one shot on goal. While it remains well-placed for the playoffs, Philadelphia needs to regain some momentum starting this weekend.

MLS Match Betting Head-to-Head

LA Galaxy was a founding member of MLS and Philadelphia joined in 2010, but the fact that these teams play in different conferences has meant that they haven’t met very often and the head-to-head record shows that this is a fixture that has only occurred 12 times since 2010.

The notable feature of this rivalry is that LA Galaxy has dominated consistently. Of the twelve games that these teams have played since 2010, the LA team has won eight, with three drawn. Philadelphia’s lone success occurred in 2012 when it won 2-1 in LA.

Since then, Galaxy has put together an eight-game unbeaten streak against Philadelphia, although three of those games have ended in draws. This will also be the first time that these teams have met since 2019, due to the effects of lockdown and fixture variance.

MLS Match Betting Team News

The team news for LA Galaxy remains relatively problematic. Javier Hernandez is still a long-term injury absence as he rehabilitates from an ACL injury. He is joined on the injury list by Memo Rodriguez and Martin Caceres who are suffering from thigh and ankle problems respectively.

Vanney may consider picking the same team that was successful against LAFC last weekend. That would mean Douglas Costa, the former Bayern Munich winger, starting up front with Tyler Boyd and Preston Judd in a front three formation.

Philadelphia is also missing a pair of key players. Kai Wagner is still out with a hamstring problem and first-choice goalkeeper Andre Blake is on international duty. That means Joe Bendik is likely to continue as replacement goalkeeper, behind a 3-4-1-2 formation.

MLS Match Betting Pick

Philadelphia has been one of the best teams in MLS over recent months and has made a stronger start to the 2023 season than Saturday’s rivals in the West. But momentum and recent form count for a lot in MLS and Philadelphia’s poor record on the road is a major concern ahead of this gruelling trip to the west coast. Galaxy is not a high-scoring team, but I think it has a good chance to keep Philadelphia at bay here, given the visiting team’s lack of firepower, so the draw looks a good pick in the match betting market.

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