AC Milan takes on Cagliari this weekend as the newly crowned Italian Supercoppa champions. I Rossoneri knocked out both Juventus and Inter to win the prestigious trophy in Saudi Arabia. Now they must address more pressing matters: their 8th-placed position in the Serie A table. Read on for an expert AC Milan vs Cagliari prediction and explore tips for Milan betting, including custom projections.
- Serie A
- AC Milan vs Cagliari Calcio
- January 11, 2025
- 2:45 PM EST
- San Siro, Milan, Italy
- Paramount+
AC Milan vs Cagliari Betting Odds
Milan are sizable favorites to secure the maximum 3 points Saturday night against cagliari. The hosts are (-280) to win in regulation time. The Islanders are (+850) to earn back-to-back victories. A draw pays out at (+455).
Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our soccer betting tips and learn about online soccer betting odds.
Nightmare Domestic Start for Milan
Milan has not finished outside of the top 4 in the last four seasons, but that streak could be broken this year. AC Milan are currently sitting in 8th with 27 points behind a crowded title picture. Napoli sits in 1st currently, with Atalanta and Inter trailing right behind. At this point, hopes of a Scudetto would be quite far-fetched.
Instead, Milan supporters must set their aspirations a bit lower and look to at least qualify for European competition. The club has taken steps in that direction, getting rid of manager Paulo Fonseca in late December. Already, improvements are noticeable with the new hire. Sergio Conceicao propelled Milan to comeback wins over Juve and Inter to win the Super Cup.
Fittingly, it was Theo Hernandez and Rafael Leao who stepped up when it mattered most for Milan. The two players were constantly at odds with Fonseca but have gotten off to a better start under Conceicao. Each played a role in the 3-goal comeback to defeat their city rivals in the final. A decorated manager in Portugal with Porto, it took less than a week for the former Lazio player to earn his first Italian title.
With their games in hand, Milan could only be four points behind Lazio for a spot in the Champions League. That will assuredly be Conceicao’s objective for the club brimming with talent. Along with Hernandez and Leao, Christian Pulisic, Tijjani Reijnders and Alvaro Morata are all also incredibly skilled in the attacking end.
Cagliari Actively Fending for their Right to Remain in Serie A
Cagliari sit precipitously above the relegation line courtesy of goal difference in Serie A. With 17 points the club is level with 18th-placed Lecce but hold a 6-goal advantage. The island-based team has been on the ropes ever since rejoining the top flight two terms ago. Cagliari was at one point a mainstay in Serie A, albeit in the bottom ranks.
Bounced out of the Coppa Italia by Juventus and nowhere near European qualification, all targets are set on keeping their place with the best. An away victory over Monza certainly helped that cause. The red card accrued by Monza’s Danilo d’Ambrosio around the hour mark also helped matters. Looking around the corner, Cagliari has some opportunities to pick up points.
Post-Milan Cagliari are set to face Lecce, Torino, Lazio and Parma. Three of those four matches are in the bottom half of the division, and three of the four are also in Sardinia. In recent news, Cagliari and Napoli completed a goalkeeping swap, sending Simone Scuffet to Napoli with the younger Elia Caprille joining Cagliari in return. Caprille’s arrival may reduce expectations for Cagliari, but the youngster has recorded three clean sheets this season.
AC Milan vs Cagliari: Free Milan Betting Pick
For all the talk about Milan’s prolific offense, the club has actually scored nearly as many goals on their travels than at San Siro. The club fields barely an above-average offense at home. And Cagliari, for all their misgivings, has given up just four goals in their last three away games.
The last time these two clubs met, Cagliari earned a draw. And while I am inclined to favor Cagliari here again, I hesitate to side with them straight on the moneyline or Asian handicap markets. That is because it is Milan’s offense that I believe is being overrated in this spot, so I want to focus on that.
Interestingly, sportsbooks are not agreeing exactly on the lines for this match. Cagliari is down to (+850) on some books but (+700) on others. That discrepancy alone is enough to consider a wager if you like a particular side, since you are possibly removing a lot of the priced-in vigorish out of the equation. Additionally, sportsbooks will usually come to a consensus by the time of kickoff, making it logical to assume one of those prices is likely to be incorrect.
That being said, my prediction for this match is for Milan to score less than three goals. I think Milan should be tired after going to Saudi Arabia and playing twice in one week. Cagliari will be well-rested, immediately raising flags of a potential letdown spot for the hosts. My projections indicate this should be lined at (-201), but we are getting a price of (-151) at BetOnline, so that will be the bet I recommend.
Top Sportsbooks for Milan Betting
Explore some of the best sportsbooks for online betting below. Each website is reviewed by OnlineSportsBetting for user experience, customer service, new member promos, and more.
-
EXCLUSIVE BONUS
50% bonus up to $250Play NowT&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
-
50% bonus up to $1000Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
-
EXCLUSIVE BONUS 125% up to $3,125Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
-
50% up to $500Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
-
100% up to $1,000Play Now
T&C apply, 18+, Play responsibly
