Back Seattle to see off Houston in Western Conference MLR clash

The standout fixture of Week 4 of the 2024 Major League Rugby season is the showdown between the Seattle Seawolves and the Houston Sabercats at the Starfire Sports Complex on Friday night. Seattle is the favorite to win with the sportsbooks. Have they got that right? Let’s give you the answer in our latest rugby betting picks.

What: 2024 Major League Rugby
Who: Seattle Seawolves vs. Houston Sabercats
Where: Starfire Sports Complex, Tukwila, Washington
When: Friday, March 22nd,
Time: 9.30 pm ET

With three weeks of the 2024 MLR season now complete, the league table is starting to take shape. The top two franchises are the Houston Sabercats and the Seattle Seawolves. The Sabercats lead by one point, the bonus point they picked up for scoring four tries against the Miami Sharks last weekend in Houston.

TWO undefeated teams remain ⚠️@SeawolvesRugby | @HOUSaberCats | @sportsbreakscom | #MLR2024 pic.twitter.com/AwIRlofiE3

— Major League Rugby (@usmlr) March 20, 2024

The Seawolves and the Sabercats are also the only two franchises unbeaten in the new season. Both have won three from three, but someone’s 100% record will go this Friday night.

Seattle Seawolves vs. Houston Sabercats Match Betting

In the betting to win the match, the latest rugby betting odds heavily favor the hosts. On the money line, the Seattle Seawolves are -350. While to pull off a fourth-successive win, the Houston Sabercats are +275.

Onto the handicap spread, and the Sabercats are receiving an 8.5-point start. To win with the spread, Houston is -105. To win and cover the 8.5-point spread, the Seawolves are -115 with Bovada.

More Seattle Seawolves vs. Houston Sabercats betting options are on our odds table. We have gathered our odds from the best rugby betting online sites for MLR.

Seattle vs. Houston
Seattle	-350	-350	-350
Houston	+275	+275	+275

Seattle (-8.5)	-105	-110	-110
Houston (+8.5)	-115	-110	-110

Recent Form

Not only is this a top-of-the-table MLR clash, but it is also a top-of-the-table Western Conference showdown.

We know that both sides are unbeaten so far this season. They both have three wins apiece. But a closer look at the opposition shows that Houston hasn’t beaten anybody of any significant quality.

So far this season, the Sabercats have defeated Utah 22-15, Los Angeles 27-12, and Miami 30-19.

A similar view can be taken about the Seawolves, as they have also defeated Utah and Miami in their opening three matches. But Seattle’s opening weekend 25-19 victory over the San Diego Lions has to trump Houston’s win against the Miami Sharks.

Took care of business. 👊

The Seattle Seawolves opened up their season with a 25-19 win over San Diego Legion. #TogetherWeHunt 🌊 pic.twitter.com/JKgwbfq2YD

— Starfire Sports (@StarfireSports) March 3, 2024

To further underline why Seattle is such a short-priced favorite, the Seawolves defeated the Sabercats 37-26 the last time the two franchises met. That was last year in the postseason Championship Series eliminators. But it was a comprehensive home-field win for the Seawolves.

Seattle Seawolves vs. Houston Sabercats: Head-to-head

MLR is a pretty new competition, so head-to-heads are quite relevant. No one needs to know what happened between the two teams in 1906, and thankfully, the head-to-heads between these two franchises are more recent.

The Seattle Seawolves hold the upper hand with a 6-2 record over the Houston Sabercats from their eight matches. Seattle won all three fixtures played between the teams last season, and they’ve also won the previous five.

The Sabercats last win over Seattle (21-19) came in their first meeting in the 2022 season. Houston’s only other win over the Seawolves came in 2021. Again, this was in their first meeting of the season. With the Sabercats recording a 30-24 victory over their Western Conference rivals.

Seattle Seawolves vs. Houston Sabercats betting picks

Both of Houston’s wins have come at SaberCats Stadium. They are yet to pick up a win on the road against the Seawolves.

It's also hard to say that much has changed since the Seawolves last beat the Sabercats in 2023. Yes, the Sabercats have started the 2024 season in good form. And they will travel to Washington with plenty of confidence. But does that mean they have enough to win away at the Starfire Sports Complex?

When the money line odds went live, our first thoughts were that they were a touch harsh on the Sabercats. But when you look at the head-to-head, the recent form, and also how well Mack Mason has started the season for Seattle, it’s easy to see why the sportsbooks have priced this matchup as they have.

Congratulations to the Alpha Back of the Match thanks to @VMFHealth

Shout out to Mack Mason for his 100% on target performance on Saturday! @mackmason 🎉@usmlr | #TogetherWeHunt #MLR2024 #rugby #manofthematch #seattlesports pic.twitter.com/7PcxfjCNWq

— Seattle Seawolves Rugby (@SeawolvesRugby) March 11, 2024

Mack scored 20 points alone in the 25-19 win over San Diego, with a 100% kicking rate consisting of six penalties and one conversion. He followed that up with another 17 points against the Miami Sharks, again with a 100% record off the tee (five pens and one conversion), and another eight points against the Utah Warriors in matchweek three.

The handicap spread of 8.5 equals one converted try and a penalty, or three penalties, to cover. We say with Mason Mack in such good form, the Seawolves have it in them to better that. We expect a similar scoreline to the last time the two franchises met. So our betting pick is for the Seattle Seawolves to win and cover the 8.5-point spread.

Seattle Seawolves (-8.5) To beat Houston and Cover

-115

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