Back resurgent New Zealand to have too much for the struggling Wallabies

The headline fixture of the final round of matches in the 2023 Rugby Championship sees Australia and New Zealand clash at the MCG this Saturday. As you will see from our Rugby betting picks, the Australians are really under the pump and in desperate need of a win. New Zealand needs a victory to secure yet another Rugby Championship title. And that sounds like bad news for Eddie Jones and his Wallabies side.

What; 2023 Rugby Championship - Round 3
Who; Australia vs New Zealand
Where; MCG, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
When; Saturday, July 29th
Time; 5.45 am ET

Although this is the final round of the 2023 Rugby Championship, it is the first of two matches between Australia and New Zealand to decide the 2023 Bledisloe Cup. The All Blacks hold the Bledisloe Cup and have held the trophy since 2003. So already, the omens look bad for the Wallabies.

The Bledisloe Cup is a separate event from the Rugby Championship, and it’s the latter we’re focusing on here. So far, the Aussies have had a stinker in the 2023 Rugby Championship, losing both their matches. In their opening match, they lost 43-12 away to South Africa. The manner of that defeat wasn’t great, but the Wallabies would have expected to lose.

But in their second match at home to Argentina, the Australians would have expected a victory. So losing 34-31 was a real setback for new coach Eddie Jones and left the Wallabies bottom of the Rugby Championship with just one point and only one match against the All Blacks remaining.

TRC RD#2 RESULT
In a wild finish, the hosts fought back from a 10 point deficit to almost pull off a remarkable victory but the Pumas scored in 79th minute to secure victory.
Details: https://t.co/33XyzZE7tU #TRC2023 #AUSvARG pic.twitter.com/xUwrPEWX8d

— TheRugbyChampionship (@SanzarTRC) July 15, 2023

Meaning now, beating the All Blacks is the only remaining positive for Australia in this year’s competition. So what are their chances of an unlikely win?

Australia vs New Zealand Match Odds

Not great in the eyes of the best online rugby betting sites is the short answer. On the money line, New Zealand is -600 to win their third match of the 2023 championship. For the Wallabies to cause an upset, you can get betting odds of +375.

On the handicap line, Australia is getting a start of 12.5 points. BetOnline has Australia at -118 with the head start and New Zealand at -112 to cover the 12.5-point spread.

Our Rugby betting table has more odds from the best sites for online rugby betting. You can read more about them on our sportsbook reviews page.

Australia vs New Zealand; 2023 Rugby Championship
Australia	+375	+375	+375
New Zealand	-600	-600	-600

Australia (+12.5)	-118	-110	-110
New Zealand (-12.5)	-112	-110	-110

Betting to win the 2023 Rugby Championship

In the futures betting, Ian Foster’s New Zealand is -1000 to win the 2023 Rugby Championship. South Africa is the second-favorite at +500, with an unlikely first-ever championship win for Argentina at +10000.

Looking bleak for Australia

Despite the latest attempts of Eddie Jones to spin the competition as merely being a glorified pre-season for Australia, things are looking very bleak for the Wallabies.

Jones has also stated that his Wallabies side are massive underdogs. And while this is factually correct, it also looks like typical Jones trying to downplay expectations in case of a heavy loss. Jones is a master of this art. But the truth is, he’s not kidding anyone with his attempts at spin.

The loss to South Africa was poor. But add the defeat at home to the Pumas into the equation, and this has set the Wallabies back in their 2023 World Cup preparations, and they look like a team a million miles away from having any success in France later this year.

New Zealand is starting to look more like the real deal

As for the All Blacks, this might need whispering after a troubled 2022, but they’ve looked impressive in their two wins in the 2023 Rugby Championship.

Victory over Argentina was expected. But they crushed the Springboks in the second round of matches. At times in the first half of the fixture in Auckland, the Springboks were blown away and couldn’t get near the dominant hosts.

TRC RD#2 RESULT
Fast starting All Blacks too good for strong finishing Springboks in Auckland and have one hand on the 2023 title...
Details: https://t.co/lsGuxF2Q61 #TRC2023 #NZLvRSA pic.twitter.com/Rh4OKMGoVn

— TheRugbyChampionship (@SanzarTRC) July 15, 2023

But the All Blacks can’t get too carried away just yet. The key to success for Ian Foster and his team is to back that win up. The All Blacks are one of the Rugby World Cup betting favorites, but they’re probably not going to win the competition with one or two good performances followed by a poor one. They will need to be more consistent.

And although the Wallabies might be in disarray, it goes without saying that they will make things hard for the All Blacks. So this will be a good test for the visitors.

Our Australia vs New Zealand betting pick

It’s pretty safe to say that a win for New Zealand is the likely outcome here. The question is can the All Blacks cover the spread or not? 12.5 points is a big ask, and this match is in Australia, not New Zealand.

But looking at the form, there can only be one call for our pick here. Australia lost by 31 points to South Africa. Yes, it was away from home. But it was a stinker of a result. They then followed that up losing at home to Argentina by three points.

The Wallabies are capable of better. But in its current form, New Zealand to cover the spread has to be our betting pick.

New Zealand -12.5 To beat Australia and cover the handicap spread

-110

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