We’re about to have a new president in Argentina, a country that’s reeling from one of the worst rates of inflation in the world. Who is it going to be — Javier Milei or Sergio Massa? Before the runoff election goes down, you’ll want to get our expert pick of the next Argentine president.
- What: Argentina Presidential Election
- When: November 19
2024 Argentina Presidential Election Preview
Argentina is in economic crisis — again. Inflation is hovering near 140 percent at the moment, one of the worst in the world. That’s been the story of Argentina’s history this entire century, but even then, recent spikes have the country on edge more than usual. That’s the backdrop you need to know to understand the 2024 Argentina presidential election.
This is a runoff election as the previous election went down in late October. It featured three candidates — Milei, Massa, and Patricia Bullrich. No one secured the 51 percent vote needed to win the candidacy, which forced this run-off between the top-two vote-getters. Massa won that first election with 36.3 percent, while Milei followed at 30.2 percent. Bullrich was eliminated from contention with only 23.8 percent.
Right now, it’s dead even with Massa and Milei. That’s reflected in the current betting odds. Just take a look at the latest lines available at the most-used betting sites for politics:
This entire race has been wildly unpredictable. Before the first round election, there was a primary in August to get a spot in the real election. Milei shocked the country and world when he won 30 percent of the vote. Before this, he was seen as an interesting, but fringe candidate. Massa was third with 27.7 percent of the vote. Obviously, all that flipped with the first-round election.
Now the most recent poll from local company Analogias shows Massa with a slight edge over Milei. The margin between the two is only three percent, per the pollsters. So if it feels like anything can happen, then it’s probably because it can given the state of the country.
2024 Argentina Presidential Betting Prediction
Before we dish out our Argentinian presidential prediction, we should quickly break down the two remaining candidates. It’ll help inform our decision:
Javier Milei
Milei is very much the outsider — and that label has fueled his quick ascent. Sometimes referred to as a Donald Trump-like candidate because of those outsider (and polarizing) ways, Milei isn't that easy to put in a box. He’s an economist by trade, not a politician.
His policies are more libertarian than anything else. Milei founded his own party in 2018 so we’re looking at a dramatic rise from nothing to possible President in five years.
The core of Milei’s campaign is a dollarization of Argentina. To him, the Argentina peso and the Central Bank that maintains it, are beyond repair, hence why the country should move to the U.S. dollar.
Sergio Massa
Massa is the opposite of Milei in every sense. In many ways, he’s the “establishment.” His political party is the Peronist coalition, which has dominated the political scene for the better part of a century now. Massa is the current economy minister and has been involved with politics for most of his adult career.
His economic agenda isn’t as drastic as Milei’s. Instead, Massa wants to enact price and currency controls to curb record inflation. Other highlights of his economic plan include stiffer penalties for dodging taxes, an anti-money laundering law, and a decrease in the value-added tax.
Our Betting Pick
Intuitively, you can’t look at the current situation in Argentina and not think, “it’s time for a change” right? You’d think so. As we said, the country is in peril, and one candidate, Massa, could very well be represented as part of the problem. He’s steered the economy and is a figurehead of the most popular political group that’s long reigned over Argentina.
Milei can play the “change” card better because he’s not a politician in the traditional sense. However, if Latin American politics have taught us anything, it’s that “the more things change, the more they stay the same.” The whole region has routinely elected the status quo (left-leaning candidates) despite serious social and economic issues. This phenomenon has been called a “pink tide.” Plus, Argentina has had these problems for decades and Peronist candidates continue to get elected.
Our money is on Massa. Argentina’s leftist ways are deep rooted and not even record inflation can change it. Bet on the status quo to prevail.
How To Bet On Argentina Election?
Argentina presidential elections come once every four years — do you really want to wait until 2027 to make money off this? We hope not, especially after we’ve given you a money pick. To place your bets on the Argentina election, we’d start with the bookmakers below. Every type of bet on politics, whether it’s Argentina or another nation, will be offered at these sites.
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