In the latest betting to be Taoiseach after the next Irish General Election, current Taoiseach Simon Harris is the betting favorite at -150. Harris will face stiff opposition from Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Fein as he seeks to win another term in office. In our latest political betting picks and futures, we look ahead to the Irish General Election and name our best bets.
- Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris has enjoyed a bounce in popularity in recent months
- Harris has until February 2025 to announce the next Irish General Election
- But with Sinn Fein suffering a slump in the opinion polls, Harris looks set to call an early election
Electoral laws in Ireland state that the same Dail cannot sit for more than five years after its first meeting. The current Dail first met on February 20th, 2020, so it must be dissolved no later than February 19th, 2025.
When the Dail is dissolved, the writ of the general election is moved, and a new date for an election is set. The latest date for the General Election is March 22nd, 2025.
But all this depends on when the current Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister), Simon Harris, decides to call the General Election. He can drag it out to March 2025. Or he may go early as Rishi Sunak did in the recent UK General Election.
The indications are that Harris will go early. In the latest betting on which year the election will take place, a 2024 Irish General Election is -350, with a 2025 date at +250.
Simon Harris has insisted his government will run for the full term until March 2025. But despite this, rumors persist about him calling a November ballot due to a recent slump in support for Sinn Fein.
Betting to be Taoiseach after next Irish General Election
Before we get onto the betting to be the next Taoiseach, you can check out what’s been happening stateside on our US Election betting odds page, where it’s fair to say things have been heating up since Joe Biden stood aside.
Now, back to European politics, and more specifically, Ireland. In the latest politics betting online, Simon Harris is the favorite to be Taoiseach after the next Irish General Election. Harris is -150, with Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Fein second in the betting at +165 and Micheál Martin of Fianna Fáil third at +325.
Harris, McDonald, and Martin are the leaders of the three biggest parties.
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Harris | -150 | -150 | -150 |
| Mary Lou McDonald | +165 | +165 | +165 |
| Micheál Martin | +325 | +325 | +325 |
| Jack Chambers | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Jim O'Callaghan | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Darragh O'Brien | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Pearse Doherty | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Dara Calleary | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
How it all works
There are 174 seats up for grabs in an Irish General Election. To win an overall majority, a party would need to win 88 seats.
However, gaining an overall majority is difficult, so as a result, coalition governments have become the norm in Ireland in recent years. There has now been a coalition government of some form in charge of Ireland since 1989.
The current government is a coalition of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and the Green Party.
The current Taoiseach is Simon Harris. He is from the Fine Gael Party. Harris took over the role in March 2024 after the resignation of Leo Varadkar.
Simon Harris has become the new Taoiseach, replacing Leo Varadkar. Mr Harris was the only person in the running for the top job. He's already been talking about his responsibilities to protect peace on this island and his intention to work with Stormont. Aoife Moore reports pic.twitter.com/4hEsFyHZUL
— BBC Newsline (@bbcnewsline) April 9, 2024
In the 2020 General Election, Fine Gael won 35 seats. Fianna Fáil won the most seats with 38, and Sinn Fein was the second largest with 37 seats.
Despite finishing with the third most seats, a Fine Gael TD is still the Taoiseach, and this is an example of why calling the next Taoiseach is difficult.
The role is not always decided by who wins the most seats. It can sometimes be on who can negotiate the best to form a majority coalition government.
As things stand politically, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are best equipped to put their differences aside and form a coalition with one another, forcing Sinn Fein onto the sidelines.
Simon Harris -150
Simon Harris is the safe bet. He can control the destiny of when the next General Election takes place, and unless his Fine Gael party gets wiped out at the vote, he will be involved in the makeup of the next coalition.
A vote for Fine Gael and Harris will effectively be a vote for more of the same for the next five years, and at times, the country has expressed a desire to move on from this.
But since Harris took over from Leo Varadkar, he has improved the popularity of Fine Gael with voters.
As a result, an election wipeout is no longer likely, and as things stand, Harris has taken Fine Gael to the brink of winning the most seats should an election be held now.
Mary Lou McDonald +165
Mary Lou McDonald does offer something different to Harris and his coalition government.
The Party’s biggest problem is they are more socialist and appeal more to younger voters.
Mary Lou McDonald has struggled to get voters of a certain age to trust her Sinn Fein party with their pensions and the way of life they are accustomed to in Ireland.
And with potential coalitions less likely to involve Sinn Fein, they find themselves down in the polls on where they were in 2020.
We say something drastic has to happen if Mary Lou McDonald is to become the next Taoiseach.
Micheál Martin +325
Micheál Martin has been Taoiseach in the current Dial. The Fianna Fáil leader was in office from June 2020 to December 2022, when he handed the reins to Leo Varadkar in a pre-agreed deal.
Martin’s longer odds are mainly due to the increase in popularity of Simon Harris and his Fine Gael party since Harris took over from Leo Varadkar.
If the current trend continues, Fine Gael will win more seats, putting Martin on the back foot in any coalition negotiations.
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