Is heavily favored Sadiq Khan a safe bet to win the 2024 London Mayoral Election?

The 2024 London Mayoral Elections are taking place on May 2nd, 2024. Current Mayor Sadiq Khan is a heavy favorite. But Khan is perceived to be deeply unpopular with plenty, certainly within the media. So, in our latest political futures betting, we look at the case for backing the Conservative Party candidate, Susan Hall, and tell you if she is a viable betting pick.

• The 2024 London Mayoral Elections are taking place on Thursday, May 2nd. The winner of the Election serves a four-year term.
• Sadiq Khan of the Labour Party is the current Mayor. He has won two Elections and has been in the role since 2016.
• No Mayor has ever been returned for a third term, so Khan is seeking to break new ground. The role was only established in 2000. And Khan is only the third Mayor to have held the job.

The current situation

Sadiq Khan was elected Mayor of London in 2016. He was re-elected for a second term in 2021. The Elections were carried over from 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Since his win, Khan has been under constant attack from sections of the public and large swathes of the media. Khan expanded the ULEZ scheme to outer London in August 2023 in what was described as a cash grab that was deeply unpopular with plenty of voters. The scheme sees motorists in highly polluting vehicles charged for simply driving in London.

Such was the unpopularity of the scheme that voters in a by-election held in Uxbridge and South Ruislip abandoned Labour and elected a Conservative Party candidate, leading to Labour Party Leader Sir Keir Starmer telling the BBC the Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) had cost Labour victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

So all this leads us to ask why on earth is Khan -3300 to win the upcoming Mayoral Elections in the latest political betting online? And more importantly, is the Conservative candidate, Susan Hall, worth backing at +900?

Betting to win the 2024 London Mayoral Election

Sadiq Khan is the betting favorite to win the London Mayoral Election at -3300 with BetUS. Second in the betting is the Conservative Party candidate Susan Hall at +950.

It seems a two-horse race between the candidates of the two main parties. The Liberal Democrats candidate Rob Blackie is at +9700 with BetUS. Zoe Garbett (+6600) of the Green Party is the only other viable candidate.
But realistically, all that Blackie and Garbett will do is get the votes of Londoners who are sick of both the main two parties.

Candidate
Sadiq Khan	-3300	-2500	-2500
Susan Hall	+950	+1000	+1000
Jeremy Corbyn	+3100	+5000	+5000
Rob Blackie	+9700	+6600	+6600
Zoe Garbett	+9300	+6600	+6600
Natalie Campbell	N/A	+6600	+6600
Howard Cox	N/A	+6600	+6600

The case for backing Susan Hall

In the 2016 US Presidential Election, it was presumed that Hilary Clinton was a lock-in to win. Odds between -333 and -500 were quoted on Clinton, who was regarded as 85-90% certain to win the Presidency.

That all turned out to be wrong, and Donald Trump was elected as the 45th president of the United States. For more information about how this year’s race for the White House is progressing, check out our US Election betting odds page.

But the point here is that the polls aren’t always correct. At the moment Khan is registering at between 44 and 51% in Voting Intention data (depending on where you look). The odds are following the data, and this is why Khan is so short.

🚨 New London Mayoral Voting Intention data with @Savanta_UK

🌹Sadiq Khan is set to win the upcoming 2024 Mayoral Election, despite divided opinions on his performance as Mayor.

Follow us for more data releases and analysis throughout the week. pic.twitter.com/CUOr1K0FSq

— Centre for London (@centreforlondon) March 22, 2024

So can we trust the data? It’s been wrong before, and it will be wrong again.

Also, should we see the Uxbridge and South Ruislip By-Election defeat for Labour as a referendum on Khan and his UZEL policy?

The elements of the media that want Khan out (and there are lots of them) have certainly seized this opportunity, and you can be sure that they will be beating this drum ferociously in the lead-up to polling day.

Here's why London mayor Sadiq Khan shouldn't be re-elected https://t.co/Cb6AMRsTS5 via @MailOnline

— Andrew Pierce (@toryboypierce) April 2, 2024

The case against Susan Hall

Going against Hall and in favor of Khan is the First-past-the-post (FPTP) voting system.

London used to use the Supplementary Vote system, which meant second preferences went to other candidates. That was changed ahead of this vote. And by removing that, Khan only needs to gain more votes than Susan Hall to get a third term.

Susan Hall is also not a very well-known name. The last Conservative Mayor was Boris Johnson. Although Johnson became far more well-known in the UK and around the world after he became Mayor, and later Prime Minister, he still had a massive presence before he was elected as Mayor of London in 2008, which Hall simply does not currently have.

NEW: Our Conservative candidate for Mayor of London is Susan Hall pic.twitter.com/vXhRkWNyk4

— Conservatives (@Conservatives) July 19, 2023

Also working in favor of the current Mayor is the general unpopularity of the current Conservative UK government. Khan is unpopular, but the UK government is arguably even more unpopular. It could be that voters are faced with the proverbial least worst option, which seems to be working in Khan’s favor.

London Mayoral Election Picks and Predictions

We can’t help thinking that the Conservative Party has missed a trick here. Sadiq Khan is deeply unpopular, and large parts of the media simply don’t like him and continue to attack him. Even Donald Trump has at times taken swipes at Khan, but would Trump even know who Susan Hall is?

If the Conservatives had put up a credible, well-known candidate they could have won this. But they didn’t.

Even though he should win, we wouldn’t be comfortable backing Khan at -3300. We feel the margin will be smaller than the current opinion polls suggest, so backing Khan to get less than 40% of the vote when the props markets go live could be the best way to go.

Under 40% Vote Share Sadiq Khan 2024 London Mayoral Election

-110

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