The 2024 U.S. Election officially begins in Iowa with the first Republican vote of the season. Here’s an in-depth look at the upcoming 2024 Iowa Caucus, including our best pick to win the state. You’re going to want to read this for money-making advice.
- What: 2024 Iowa Caucus
- When: January 15
- Where: Iowa state
2024 Iowa Caucus Preview
Let’s be honest, Donald Trump has the 2024 Republican ticket won — so long as he doesn’t get imprisoned for the various charges he’s facing. That’s the giant variable, and really, the only wildcard the rest of the Republican candidates for President have cause they aren’t beating the ex-President on the polls no way. That’s the elephant in the room as we begin our preview of the Iowa caucus.
For those unfamiliar, a caucus isn’t your typical primary where people cast ballots and the winner is whoever gets the most votes. Instead, caucus organizers registered party members into a meeting — broken up by district, precinct, or county. These members then publicly discuss who they’re voting for and try to sway others (particularly undecided voters). After all this hoopla, votes are cast in a more traditional manner.
Iowa is heavily valued by politicians because it can act as a springboard per se. A big performance can create momentum for the rest of the election season. But ironically, the last three Republican Iowa winners — Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Ted Cruz — failed to win their party’s nominations in 2008, 2012 or 2016.
As it stands, Trump is -1200 to win the Iowa caucus. That’s a staggering figure, and he’s more of a favorite here than in New Hampshire which is the second vote later in January. Obviously, it’s not worth your money to vote on such strong odds since there’s hardly any money to make.
However, since it’s so lopsided, top-used betting sites for politics released an alternate betting line that excludes Trump. Essentially, it’s a bet on who finishes second (assuming Trump wins). The odds here are much more heated, as seen below:
| Candidate |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | -140 | -140 | -140 |
| Nikki Haley | +100 | +100 | +100 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Chris Christie | +6500 | +6500 | +6500 |
This is the bet to make since Trump, without question, is going to bulldoze his fellow Republican nominees. With that in mind, here’s how we plan on betting this Trump-less bet.
Best Bet To Win Iowa Without Trump
With this Iowa bet excluding Trump, you can only put money on one candidate and one only. That’s because the only real contenders are DeSantis and Haley — and both their odds are too close to be both ways. Let’s break down each candidate's case before making our ultimate selection.
Ron DeSantis
FiveThirtyEight currently has DeSantis second in Iowa polling at 22 percent. That’s significantly behind Trump’s 45 percent, but a slight lead over Haley at 19 percent. Vivek Ramaswamy has stolen a lot of headlines, but he’s polling abysmally at five percent. So it’s really Haley vs. DeSantis here for second place and that’s it.
From the get-go, DeSantis made Iowa a heavy priority. Get this, he’s visited all 99 counties in Iowa — a feat none of his competitors can claim. Moreover, popular state governor Kim Reynolds publicly endorsed DeSantis over Trump.
You would think DeSantis would have a lot going for him with those credentials, but Iowa — like the rest of his campaign — is sagging. During the 2022 midterms, there was serious talk of DeSantis beating Trump. Now no such thing exists. Trump, like he does to everyone else, has berated him nonstop. DeSantis also doesn’t have the charisma to appeal to the “average Joe.” Momentum is noticeably flat for DeSantis.
Nikki Haley
Speaking of momentum, Haley has gained it — the only non-Trump candidate who can really say that right now. Multiple strong performances at the national debates have surged Haley in the voting. FiveThirtyEight had her as low as 4 percent in Iowa in August, but now at 19 percent. Recently, the influential brothers, Charles and David Koch, endorsed her.
Haley has taken strong stances on Ukraine and Israel-Gaza, pushing for more war support. That stance has been a big hit for Republican voters, who are historically more pro-war. She’s also been careful not to criticize Trump like DeSantis — which might help her become Vice President instead.
We very much believe in “riding the hot hand” and that’s Haley. We’re comfortably betting on her to get second place. This will probably continue in New Hampshire and South Carolina (her home state) in case you want follow-up bets elsewhere.
How To Bet On US Politics?
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