The next UK General Election is taking place on July 4th. The announcement came from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak outside his Downing Street residence on Wednesday. So with the bookmakers predicting a win for the UK Labour Party, we look at the latest political futures and tell you if they are right.
- The next UK General Election is taking place in July 2024. The ruling Conservative Party is looking to secure another term in office
- Rishi Sunak is the current leader. Sunak has been in charge of what has become a deeply unpopular Tory Party since October 2022
- The general feeling is that the Tory Party will suffer a heavy defeat to Sir Keir Starmer and his Labour Party at the ballot box
The current situation
The UK Prime Minister shocked the nation on Wednesday by announcing that the next General Election will take place on July 4th.
Moment Prime Minister Rishi Sunak calls general election https://t.co/XshgUTR0LF
— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) May 22, 2024
The common consensus was that the General Election would be called in Fall. A date between October 2024 and December 2024 was the -700 favorite with the betting sites, with November selected as the most likely month by the more astute political analysts and journalists.
In calling a General Election now, Sunak hopes to have stolen a march on the Labour Party. But even if he has caught the Labour leader, Keir Starmer, off guard, the Tories are so far behind his Labour Party in the opinion polls that it is unlikely it will make much difference.
Current polling has Labour 20 points ahead. The lead is so large it is likely to see Labour not just win the most seats, but also have a ruling majority in the Houses of Parliament after the election.
To put it bluntly, Sunak has a mountain to climb to win the General Election.
Betting to win overall majority in the UK General Election
Before we go on, unless youâve been living on Mars for the last few months, you canât have failed to notice that there is also a Presidential Election taking place in the USA later in the year. For all the latest info on that, check out our US Election betting odds page.
The latest political betting online says Labour is the favorite to win the upcoming General Election.
The most popular betting markets on the UK General Election are who will win the most seats, will any party win an overall majority, and who will be the Prime Minister after the General Election.
In all three betting markets, the Tories and Sunak are miles behind.
To win the most seats, Labour are -2000, and the Conservatives are +1000. In the betting to have an overall majority, Labour are -700 to have a majority. A Conservative majority is +1600, and no overall majority is +550.
Finally, in the betting to be the Prime Minister after the General Election, Sir Keir Starmer is -2000, and Rishi Sunak is +1000.
It will take a huge turnaround in fortunes for Sunak to have a chance of winning.
Why did Rishi Sunak go early?
As previously mentioned, the general view was that Rishi Sunak wouldnât call a General Election until November 2023. So why did he go early?
The race for Number 10 begins in earnest today following Rishi Sunak's decision to call a snap summer general election in a high stakes move that could bring to an end his party's 14 years in government
Read moređhttps://t.co/AGU1JTixap
— Sky News (@SkyNews) May 23, 2024
One cynical view amongst his party was that he could go on a summer holiday after he lost. That seems highly unlikely.
Other theories could be that he thought he would catch Labour unaware. Again, this is highly unlikely as it has been well-known that Labour has been ready to fight a General Election for months now.
Other views are that he has made it impossible for the Tory Party to oust him and choose a new leader ahead of the General Election. And another view could be that he has caught the Reform Party off guard.
A lot of disgruntled Tory voters might have switched to Reform. But if the Reform Party isnât ready to fight the General Election, these voters may stick with the Tories for now.
Our UK General Election betting picks
So could taking votes off the Reform Party be enough to see Rishi Sunak win the General Election? Probably not.
Unless something drastic happens over the next six weeks, it looks like a nailed-on certainty that Sir Keir Starmer and Labour will win the General Election. The problem seems to be finding a good value bet on this outcome.
At the moment, a bet on Labour winning a majority is the best value bet at -700.
To achieve this, Labour needs to win more than half of the seats in the Houses of Parliament. There are 650 seats available in Parliament, meaning Labour would need to win 326 seats.
In April 2024, global data analysts YouGov predicted Labour was on course to win over 400 seats.
Elsewhere, figures released by the Electoral Calculus website on May 21st showed Labour were 98% likely to have an overall majority. The figures were based on Labour having a 44.3% vote share and the Tory Party getting 23.5.
These figures back up the 20% opinion poll lead for Labour and show that a huge turnaround is needed for Labour not to win an overall majority.
Therefore, the best value bet and our betting pick on the UK General Election is for the Labour Party to win an overall majority at -700.
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