2025 Australian Federal Election Futures and Picks

Anthony Albanese (+175) and his Labor Party are the betting favorites to win when Australians go to the polls to vote for their next Prime Minister. Albanese (-175) is the current PM, and all the indications are that he will be reelected when the country next goes to the polls. We look ahead to his chances in our latest political betting futures.

Anthony Albanese is the current Prime Minister of Australia
Albanese is seeking a second term in office when Australians go to the polls in 2025
Leader of the opposition, Peter Dutton, is yet to convince Australians he is up to the job

The big picture

Politics in the USA may be reaching fever pitch (for more info on the US Election, check out our US Election betting odds page), but there is a big world outside of the USA, and who wins elections in some of the major economies around the world is of interest to American citizens.

One such country that the USA has built up a strong alliance with in recent years is Australia. And the Aussies are set to have their next Federal Election in May 2025.

The Australian political system is generally a two-way battle between the Labor Party and the Liberal/National coalition, who are referred to as the coalition.

The Labor Party leader is Anthony Albanese. Peter Dutton is the leader of the coalition.

The coalition is actually two parties. It is made up of the Liberal Party and the National Party. The National Party is more rurally and agriculturally focused. Australia is a vast country where rural areas can be very isolated. So a party that focuses on suburban areas would have little interest to voters in these rural areas.

The National Party doesn’t put candidates up against the Liberal Party, who fight the election across the rest of Australia. And whoever is the leader of the Liberal Party, is expected to be the Prime Minister if the coalition wins the Federal Election.

Betting to win the next Australian Federal Election

When the next Federal Election is called, Labor will be seeking reelection. And despite plenty of ups and downs in recent years, Albanese and Labor are favored to win another term.

The Labor Party is -175 to win the next Australian Federal Election. The Liberal/National coalition is +125, and any other party is +10000.

More Australian Federal Election betting options can be found on our betting table. All our odds are taken from the best sites for politics betting online.

Party
Labor Party	-175	-175	-175
Coalition	+125	+125	+125
Any Other	+10000	+10000	+10000

Labor Party -175

The current Australian Prime Minister is Anthony Albanese of the Australian Labor Party.

The 2022 election was held and Hon Anthony Albanese MP has been sworn in as the 31st Prime Minister of Australia.
https://t.co/bruvDDYRvN pic.twitter.com/jLK9RLJQZA

— Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (@pmc_gov_au) May 23, 2022

Albanese won the 2022 Australian Federal Election, defeating incumbent Scott Morrison and his Liberal/National coalition.

The coalition won the 2019 election, taking 77 seats, to Labor’s 68. Albanese turned that around in 2022, taking 77 of the 151 seats. The coalition lost 19 seats, finishing with just 58.

The next Federal Election will be fought over 150 seats. But Albanese will still need 76 seats to have a majority.

In a recent blow to Anthony Albanese, his approval ratings have taken a hit, dropping to their lowest level since he took office in 2022. He will be looking to reverse that in the upcoming weeks. If he manages it, Albanese is likely to win again.

Labor Party To win the next Australian Federal Election

-175

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The Coalition +125

During the duration of this Parliament, the coalition has lost three seats for various reasons, leaving leader Peter Dutton with just 55 sitting members.

As a result, Dutton has to hold onto his 55 seats and also win a further 21 to gain the majority needed to form the next government.

Dutton has seen a steady rise in his approval ratings. They now sit at 42%, the highest since he took over the role in 2022.

Dutton’s views on immigration may have played a role, where he has called for a pause in new visa applications.

It's not certain whether this will be enough to convince Australians of his credentials to be their next leader.

The Coalition To win the next Australian Federal Election

-175

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Best bet

Despite the drop in approval ratings for Anthony Albanese, Peter Dutton still isn’t fully cashing in.

Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings have slumped to the equal-lowest level since he became Prime Minister, as Peter Dutton fails to sway voters over management of the inflation crisis. Read more: https://t.co/wDz4kF2tVn pic.twitter.com/BY5olWgmbQ

— The Australian (@australian) September 1, 2024

Dutton is doing no better than his political rival, Albanese, in their approval ratings battle. But going in Dutton’s favor, is the pair's approval ratings are now traveling in opposite directions.

Further muddying the waters is that most Australians believe that Albanese would make a better Prime Minister than Dutton.

Recent polling shows 45% of voters favor the Labor leader, compared to 37%, who felt Dutton would make a better leader.

There is no clear selection at the moment. If the approval ratings continue on their current trajectories, a bet on the coalition would appear to make more sense.

But we’re not convinced that Australia is ready for change just yet. We expect to see Albanese lose seats, but we still say he is set to win the most seats.

Albanese is likely to survive. But probably in a minority government relying on support from independents.

Labor Party To win the next Australian Federal Election

-175

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