Kemi Badenoch the early favorite to replace Rishi Sunak as Tory Party leader

It’s not just Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron having a bad time in politics. Spare a thought for Rishi Sunak. He has just seen his party routed at the 2024 UK General Election, losing his job as UK Prime Minister. As a result, Sunak will stand down as leader of the Tory Party and the race is on to find his successor. In our latest political futures, we look at the latest betting to be the next leader of the Conservative Party.

• The Conservative Party lost a whopping 251 seats at the 2024 General Election
• Former Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak was left to carry the can for the huge defeat
• The race is now onto succeed Sunak as the next leader of the Conservative Party

The 2024 UK General Election is over. The UK Labour Party won a landslide majority, seeing Sir Keir Starmer taking over as the new Prime Minister, and Rishi Sunak packing his bags and leaving Downing Street.

Rishi Sunak confirmed that he will step down as Conservative Party leader in his resignation speech as prime minister.

He said he will leave the role once 'formal arrangements' for his successor are in placehttps://t.co/fT2zvfjYxd pic.twitter.com/qtuxaWkc7b

— ITV News (@itvnews) July 5, 2024

As a result, Sunak will also step down as the leader of the Tory Party and they will have to find yet another leader as they attempt to come back from their worst General Election result in over 100 years.

In the short term, Sunak will stay on Tory Party leader as the party decides on its new leader.

Betting to be the next Conservative Party leader

Only elected members can serve in the Houses of Parliament. So anybody who lost their seat at the General Election can’t become leader of the Conservative Party.

Unfortunately for the Conservatives, some big names from the party lost their seats in the 2024 UK General Election. As a result, some of the favorites to lead the party into the next General Election are no longer eligible.

One of the previous betting favorites to have already fallen by the wayside is Penny Mordaunt. She was a serious candidate to take over from Rishi Sunak. But after losing her seat, the opportunity for Mordaunt has now passed.

Other big names who could have put their names in the hat were Grant Shapps and Gillian Keegan. Both lost their seats on a disastrous election night for the Tories.

Instead, Kemi Badenoch is the current front-runner. The former Secretary of State for Business and Trade is now the favorite at odds of just +150. In the absence of Mordaunt, the closest rivals to Badenoch are Robert Jenrick at +333, Tom Tugenhat at +450, Priti Patel at +650, and James Cleverly at +700.

Two outliers are Suella Braverman at +1000 and Nigel Farage (of the Reform Party) at +2800.

More political betting options can be found on our politics betting table.

Candidate
Kemi Badenoch	+150	+150	+150
Robert Jenrick	+333	+333	+333
Tom Tugenhat	+450	+450	+450
Priti Patel	+650	+650	+650
James Cleverly	+700	+700	+700
Suella Braverman	+1000	+1000	+1000
Victoria Atkins	+1600	+1600	+1600
Nigel Farage	+2800	+2800	+2800
Jeremy Hunt	+2800	+2800	+2800
Boris Johnson	+3300	+3300	+3300
Mel Stride	+4000	+4000	+4000
David Cameron	+4000	+4000	+4000
Claire Coutinho	+5000	+5000	+5000

And in case you’ve been on the moon for the past few months and not realized, there is also a Presidential Election in the USA. For more information, check out our US Election betting odds page.

The favorites

To become leader of the Conservative Party, an MP would first need to win the most votes from their fellow members of parliament. The top two candidates are then presented to all the paid-up Tory Party members who vote for their leader out of the two candidates.

As a result, any potential leader will have to be popular with both their Parliamentary colleagues and with Conservative party members.

The name that has been long mooted to tick both boxes is Kemi Badenoch. She has managed to navigate her way unscathed through the recent turmoil in the party.

Kemi Badenoch To be Next Tory Party Leader

+150

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Second in the betting is Robert Jenrick. Jenrick is one of those names that comes with baggage. He hasn’t covered himself in glory in recent months, and we doubt he would be a popular choice to put to the Tory Party membership. The same would apply to James Cleverly.

Tom Tugenhat would represent a clean break from the recent past. But Tugenhat has unsuccessfully run for leader in the past.

Finally, Priti Patel. She has held top Government positions in the past. She would be popular with the right wing of the party and the membership. But she is associated with past Tory Party failures.

Priti Patel To be Next Tory Party Leader

+650

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The outsiders

Suella Braverman was practically running her own campaign to be the new leader of the Tory Party while she was the serving Home Secretary. Braverman continually went against her boss, Rishi Sunak, undermining him on any issues she believed would later go against her in any leadership bid.

As a result, Braverman alienated herself from a lot of her party, who regarded her as selfish for putting herself above the best interests of the party and country.

Nigel Farage isn’t even a member of the Conservative Party. So why is he in the running to be leader?

The answer is that he is the leader of the Reform Party, who sits on the right wing of British politics.

If the Tory Party decides to pursue a right-wing agenda, a pact with Reform could be on the cards. Farage is the biggest name on the right of politics, so putting him in charge would make perfect sense.

The other outside pick would have to be Claire Coutinho. She looks like a safe pair of hands who could gain the votes of backers of Penny Mordaunt who can no longer stand.

Coutinho could also pick up the votes of Tory MPs who represent the center ground of the party.

The best value picks

The chances are that out of the favorites, it will be either Kemi Badenoch or Priti Patel. But history tells us that the Tories can go leftfield. David Cameron came from nowhere to be the leader in 2005, and there is a chance something similar might happen here.

Claire Coutinho could be worth a small wager at +5000. She has no real baggage and is someone the whole party could get behind.

Claire Coutinho To be Next Tory Party Leader

+5000

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