The 2024 US Presidential Election is drawing ever closer. We still donât have any clear idea who will win the keys to the White House. But in the betting to win the popular vote, the Democrats look set for victory. In our latest political betting picks, we look at the latest odds and name our best bets.
- The 2024 US Presidential Election is taking place on November 5th
- Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck in the race to win the White House
- Despite the closeness of the race, the Democrats are favored to win the Popular Vote
The big picture
You have to go back to 2004 and George W. Bush to find the last time a Republican won the popular vote in the USA. In that election, Bush polled 50.7% of the vote to John Kerryâs 48.3%.
Since that poll, the Democrats have won the popular vote in every election. Even in 2016, when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. On that occasion, Trump polled at 46.1%, Clinton at 48.2%.
Who is the betting favorite to win the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
In 2024, the US Presidential Election looks set to be close again. But despite the closeness of US Election betting odds, the bookmakers are slating Kamala Harris and the Democrats as short-priced favorites to win the popular vote.
In the candidate betting to win the popular vote, Kamala Harris is the favorite at -450, with Donald Trump Sr. at +275.
In the party betting to win the popular vote, the Democrats are -500, the Republican Party is +300, and any other party is an unlikely-looking +10000.
To win by a margin of between 0% and 2.49%, both Harris and Trump are +300. But to win by a margin of between 2.50% and 4.99%, Kamala Harris is +250, and Donald Trump is +800.
Take it up to the next betting bracket, and the margin is even greater. To have a winning margin between 5.0% and 7.49%, Harris is +300, and Trump is +2500.
More Popular Vote betting options can be found on our betting table. All our odds are taken from the best sites for politics betting online.
The case for Harris -450
Alongside polling intentions, one of the biggest factors in Harris being the overwhelming favorite in this market is recent history.
The Democrats won the popular vote in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020.
Okay, they won the White House in three of those four elections. But even in 2016 when Trump shocked the world with his election win, the Democrats still polled higher in the popular vote.
In the lead-up to the 2016 vote, Hillary Clinton was -500 to win the keys to the White House. So even though it was a shock to some that she lost the election, it was no major surprise she won the popular vote.
To put it another way, there is a possibility that history may repeat itself in 2024.
If nothing else, Kamala Harris has shown that she has a far better chance of winning than Joe Biden.
She is gaining a lot of support from voters who might not think she is that great, but simply donât want another four years of Trump and would vote for almost anybody other than the former President.
The case for Trump +275
Donald Trump has made plenty of hay by attacking the Democratâs record on both the economy and immigration.
The former President is quick to point out that as part of the Biden administration, Kamala Harris is equally culpable for what he says is a poor record on both issues.
And this is an attack line that is working for Trump.
Both the economy and immigration concern a lot of Americans. And even some, who may despise Trump, might be prepared to take a punt on him in the belief he will make the dollars in their pockets go further and also be stricter on immigration than the Democrats have been.
But even beating Hillary Clinton to the White House in 2016 wasnât enough to win the popular vote for Trump.
Similar to what he has done with Kamala Harris, Trump was great in highlighting Clintonâs areas of weaknesses on the campaign trail.
Nevertheless, Hillary Clinton still won nearly three million more votes than Trump.
Best bet
A lot of the election prediction models produced by people like Thomas Miller and Allan Lichtman are predicting an election win for Harris.
But with the shadow of Hillary Clinton still looming large, how much can we trust these algorithms in this more bonkers than ever US Presidential Election?
At the time of writing, Trump is -125 to win the Election, with Harris at +105. So with all this uncertainty, a vote on Harris winning the popular vote at -450 could be too risky.
Instead, we are going to back Kamala Harris to win the popular vote by a margin of between 0% and 2.49% at odds of +300.
If you wish to hedge your bet, cover Harris by backing her to win by between 2.5% and 4.99% as well.
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