If the polls are to be believed, Donald Trump is on course to make a sensational return to the White House in January 2025. But if he wins, what will be his winning margin? In the latest Electoral College winning margin political futures, a win for Trump by between 65 and 104 votes is favored. But have the bookmakers called it correctly?
- The 2024 US Presidential Election is taking place on November 5th
- The futures markets are showing that Donald Trump is on course to win a second term. He is -200 to win again in 2024. Kamala Harris is +170
- The so-called Blue Wall Swing States are set to decide the outcome of the election and what Trump’s margin of victory might be
There are 538 Electoral College votes up for grabs. The winning line is 270. In 2016, Donald Trump won with 304 votes, in 2020, Joe Biden won with 306.
Most states never change hands and are regarded as safe states. If you tally up the safe states, Kamala Harris would have 225 Electoral College votes to Donald Trump’s 219.
This leaves eight key swing states, which are set to decide the 2024 US Presidential Election. The swing states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska 2nd District.
Between them, they represent the remaining 94 Electoral College votes. They are known as the swing states, and it’s those states that will decide who wins the election, and by how many Electoral College votes.
- Pennsylvania - 19 Votes
- Georgia - 16 Votes
- North Carolina - 16 Votes
- Michigan - 15 Votes
- Arizona - 11 Votes
- Wisconsin - 10 Votes
- Nevada - 6 Votes
- Nebraska (2nd District) - 1 Vote
2024 US Presidential Election - Electoral College winning margin betting
In the latest 2024 US Election betting odds, Donald Trump Sr. is now -200 to win, and Kamala Harris has slipped to +170. Just a few weeks ago, the two candidates were level, but Trump is now a clear favorite.
In the Electoral College winning margin betting, the Republicans to win by 65-104 votes is +200. To win by 35-64 and 105-154, the GOP is +500.
The shortest odds on Democrats is +800 on them winning by 65-104. They are also +900 to win by 35-64, and +1000 to win by 15-34 and 0-4.
| Winning Margin |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans 215+ | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Republicans 155 - 214 | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
| Republicans 105 - 154 | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Republicans 65 - 104 | +200 | +200 | +200 |
| Republicans 35 - 64 | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Republicans 15 - 34 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Republicans 5 - 14 | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Republicans 1 - 4 | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 |
| Democrats 0 - 4 | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Democrats 5 - 14 | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Democrats 15 - 34 | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Democrats 35 - 64 | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Democrats 65 - 104 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Democrats 105 - 154 | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Democrats 155 - 214 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Democrats 215+ | +3500 | +3500 | +3500 |
Does Pennsylvania hold the key?
Pennsylvania is widely regarded as the key state. In the betting to win the Electoral College votes, the Republicans are -165, with the Democrats at +120.
The state not only has the highest number of Electoral College votes (19) of the swing states, but it is also demographically similar to nearby Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10).
Therefore, if you are in a position to win the Battleground State, you are also in with a great chance of winning Michigan and Wisconsin.
Winning all three would put Harris within one Electoral College vote of winning (Nebraska’s 2nd district vote would be enough) the election. For Trump, winning all three would leave him needing any other swing state (other than Nebraska’s 2nd district) to claim election victory.
The betting to win Michigan and Wisconsin is also close. In Michigan, Harris is -125 and Trump is -115. And in Wisconsin, Trump is -135 and Harris is -105.
Trump is favorite in two of the three states, but the betting is far closer in the three northeast states than it is in the south of the country.
Is Trump set to sweep the South?
Further south in Georgia, Trump is -260, with Harris at +170, and it’s the exact same odds in favor of Trump for North Carolina.
Further west, it’s a similar picture with Trump -280 to win in Arizona and -190 to take Nevada. Of those four seats, Trump only won North Carolina in 2020.
If Trump takes all four this time, he will gain 49 votes.
Add them to his 219 safe state votes and he has 268 Electoral College votes, leaving him needing to take just one of the three northeast states, of which Trump is the favorite to win in two.
Best bets
If we follow the betting and Trump wins Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the former President will have another 29 Electoral College votes, giving him 297. This would leave Harris with only 241 available votes, and Trump with a winning margin of 56 (+500).
The key question is do we think Trump will do better than the polls suggest? The common consensus is that he will, which explains why the 65-104 margin is the betting favorite.
So is it worth backing Trump to win by 105-154 at +500?
Well, George W. Bush won by margins of five in 2000 and 35 in 2004. Barack Obama won by 192 in 2008 and by 126 in 2012. Trump won by 77 in 2016, and Biden by 74 in 2020.
By recent Republican standards, Trump's win in 2016 was huge. But it’s hard to see an Obama-style win for Trump in 2024. So it could be that the online politics betting sites have called it correctly and the margin is set to be 65-104.
It certainly makes more sense to back this outcome than Trump to win at -200.
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