Donald Trump, the cult of personality, is almost a lay-up to win the Republican nominee for President. So much that top-used betting sites for politics have odds out on how much of the popular vote Trump will win during the 2024 US Presidential election. We have betting predictions of our own so stay with us.
First thing is first though, letâs take a look at these Trump popular vote odds. Mind you, this bet is only on if Trump indeed wins the Republican ticket. But if he does, here are the betting options for what percentage of the popular vote Trump earns:
| Popular Vote Percentage |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40.1 to 545 | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| 45.1 to 50 | +145 | +145 | +145 |
| 50.1 to 55 | +550 | +550 | +550 |
| 55.1 to 60 | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| More than 60 | +400 | +400 | +400 |
Trump Surging In 2024 Polls
Weâre 10 months away from the election. Itâs early, but by all accounts, Trump is gaining on the 2024 polls. This trend is playing out across states, ages, ethnicities, and even news sources â the liberal paper New York Times has reported Trumpâs gains too.
Last November, NYT led with the following headline: âTrump leads in five critical states as voters blast Biden.â The article went further, saying Trump is leading Biden in key battleground states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. All leads were by at least four percentage points too. Bidenâs only battleground lead came in Wisconsin. Across the six battlegrounds, Trump led the current president on average 48-4.
Elsewhere, Trump is polling better with Hispanic and youth voters â demographics that historically lean liberal in a big way. Days ago, the USA Today reported that 39 percent of Hispanic voters said theyâre favoring Mr Trump compared to 34 percent for Biden. To put the numbers in perspective, Biden polled 65 percent with Hispanics in 2020. The same thing played out with young voters. The same report said they would vote Trump to the tune of 37 percent versus 33 for Biden. If true, these are both major flips.
Inevitably, the question becomes can these polls even be trusted? Well, itâs been a rough go for polling as a whole since 2016 â the same year almost every poll had Hilary Clinton beating Trump comfortably. Of course, we all know what happened next. Similarly, 2022 polls predicted a âred waveâ in midterms which never happened. All this is to say you just never really know until you know.
Trump 2024 Predictions
Before we can truly predict how Trump will fare in the 2024 US election popular vote, we need to answer one massive question: will he even be on the voting ballot?
Will Trump Be On The Ballot?
Trumpâs biggest obstacle to the Republican nominee isnât any candidate like Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley. His biggest obstacle is the U.S. Constitution.
You may have read that both the state of Colorado and Maine want to remove Trump from the ballot â for the Republican primaries and possibly the general election. Both are arguing Trump violated the 14th amendmentâs âinsurrection clauseâ during the January 6 riots on Capitol Hill. Of course, Trump is fighting back against it.
This will likely be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. While itâs a good story, itâs probably a nothing burger like prior impeachment and Russiagate distractions. Weâre quite confident the Supreme Court will side with Trump and pave his path for 2024.
What Percentage Of Popular Vote Will Trump Win?
All right, hereâs what we came for. When predicting Trumpâs popular vote performance, we first have to level-set things using 2016 and 2020 data.
In 2016, Trump actually lost the popular vote against Clinton but did win the electoral college. Trump got 46.1 percent of the vote to Clintonâs 48.2 percent.
Trump performed eerily similar in 2020. He earned 46.8 percent to Bidenâs 51.3. Of course, Trump contested those results but this article isnât the place to open up that can of worms.
The point is clear: Trump has never gotten 47 percent of the vote or better. Therefore, we strongly, strongly doubt Trump would be able to grab 50 percent or above. We donât care what people think of Biden, thatâs a huge jump for any candidate to make, little less for one as polarizing as Trump.
Our bet is squarely going on the 45 to 50 percent range. We donât buy the polls that Trump is running away with this election. No way â itâs going down to the wire like the last two involving Trump. Who won, we donât know yet as so much can happen from now until November.
How To Bet On US Politics?
This Trump special bet is just one of many available at online sportsbooks. To get a complete list of US political bets, we recommend visiting one of the underneath betting sites. They already have a bunch of betting lines up, but more will be added as we go along, including primaries in individual states.
Reference the table if youâre not sure where to bet. Weâve included links to our unbiased sportsbook reviews and details on current promotional bonuses. Compare sites using both pieces of information. Once you have a site, you realistically have a one-stop shop for all political betting.
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