How Popular Would Sports Betting in Oklahoma Be?

How popular would sports betting in Oklahoma be if it gets legalized?

One FanDuel executive believes The Sooner State may be a half-billion-dollars-per-year market.

Jonathan Edson, a senior vice president at FanDuel sportsbook, commented on the potential of Oklahoma online sports betting at a recent seminar in Oklahoma City. More than 2,000 tribal leaders were in attendance for the forum. Edson’s sentiments came during a roundtable discussion that featured major players from online sports betting in the United States. The list included executives from not only FanDuel, but also BetMGM and Playtech, a gambling software development company founded all the way back in 1999.

“Ultimately, it’s going to take a willing state government and a willing set of tribes to make it happen,” Edson explained. “Our estimates put it at half a billion dollars’ worth of gross gaming revenue here once you start to get to maturity.”

The wording here is important. Edson is not talking about the handle for sports betting in Oklahoma. That refers to the total amount of money spent on wagers. Gross gaming revenue instead nods to the prospective profit for online sportsbooks in the USA once they pay out winning wagers. The Sooner State would then receive a percentage of this money in taxes. That rate would likely range anywhere from 10 percent ($50 million) to maybe even 20 percent ($100 million).

This is the kind of money that moves the needle. We are not just talking about state budgets, either. It is enough of a bankroll to potentially shift entire views on policies. Is sports betting in Oklahoma on such policy, though?

Where Do Projections for Sports Betting in Oklahoma Rank Relative to the Rest of the United States?

Many may wonder whether $500 million in gross gaming revenue is actually a lot when evaluated against the rest of the country. Fortunately for us, we can provide a rough estimate to this inquiry. All but 12 states have now legalized some form of sports betting. That means we have plenty of data off which to work.

Most immediately compare revenue forecasts to sports betting in New York. The Empire State has become the gold standard for wagering markets. And it will remain that way until sports betting in California or sports betting in Texas get legalized.

Since going live in January 2022, New York has averaged around $97.5 million in gross gaming revenue per month. That comes out to about $1.2 billion per year. This, of course, isn’t in the neighborhood of projections for sports betting in Oklahoma. The Sooner State would generate less than half of the money being made in The Empire State.

However, this isn’t the fairest comparison. New York has nearly 19.6 million residents, according to StatsAmerica.org. Oklahoma, on the other hand, has a population of under 4.1 million people. That’s less than a quarter of what you see in The Empire State. Bake in a smaller collection of pro sports teams, and the Oklahoma sports betting market is supposed to be smaller than that in New York. If anything, it’s impressive that The Sooner State could mature into a percentage of The Empire State’s business.

A better analog for sports betting in Oklahoma is sports betting in Massachusetts. Since launching in January 2023, they have averaged what amounts to almost $600 million per year in gross gaming revenue. And The Bay State is considered a fairly prominent market relative to the country at large.

So, What’s Standing in the Way of Sports Wagering in Oklahoma?

If online sports betting in Oklahoma is worth 80 percent or so of that revenue stream, experts and state officials are bound to count that as a monstrous win. You’d think that support among lawmakers would be close to unanimous.

Here’s the thing: It might be.

The legalization of sports betting in Oklahoma has not failed due to a lack of support among state officials or tribes. On the contrary, we know for a fact plenty of lawmakers and tribal officials want to see The Sooner State green light sports betting. The method of legalization looms as the primary issue.

Governor Kevin Stitt has taken it upon himself to propose different forms of approval. Years ago, he attempted to renegotiate gaming compacts with a select number of tribes. Most recently, he mapped out an Oklahoma sports betting bill that would have okayed entry for online sportsbooks.

Each time, though, tribal leaders have taken exception to a lack of collaboration. As such, the relationship between the governor and the state’s tribes is on rocky footing. And that may be putting it kindly.

Is There a Realistic Timeline for Sports Betting in Oklahoma?

The answer to this question can be found in the complicated nature of what we outlined above.

As FanDuels’ Edson noted, this process is going to take a “willing state government and willing set of tribes.” But where many might think he’s talking about the matter of sports betting itself, his comments are actually aimed at the relationship between the parties.

Frankly, without collaboration among tribes and the state government, there will be no sports betting in Oklahoma. So before we can project how much money Oklahoma online sports betting will generate and what legalization will look like, we must first find the answer to a different question.

That question: Can the governor’s office and the state’s tribes ever get on the same page? For now, the answer is unclear. But maybe both parties will deliver some long-awaited clarity ahead of next year’s legislative meetings.

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