Just over one year after North Carolina sports betting went live, stakeholders from The Tar Heel State believe it continues to be a rousing success.
“It’s been a universally good thing for the state,” says Pat Ryan, a spokesperson for the Sports Betting Alliance, according to WECT News 6.
This is a strong portrayal of the impact of sports betting in North Carolina. It is also somewhat inaccurate. At the very least, it exaggerates the upside.
The term “universally” implies infallibility. We know enough about online sports betting in the United States to understand that gambling is not without its negatives. Bad consequences of any industry this size are unavoidable. Sure, the downsides might be unintended. But they do exist.
As an example, data shows that calls to the North Carolina problem gambling hotline have soared over the past year. The number of bankruptcies declare in the state are also expected to rise.So while sports betting creates financial relief through tax revenue for state universities and departmental budgets, it takes a toll on subsets of the population.
This is why it’s important to consider the source. Ryan works for the Sports Betting Alliance, a coalition that is aligned with major sportsbooks in the United States. He is not about to paint an unflattering picture of North Carolina sports betting legalization.
Still, this doesn’t mean he’s entirely wrong. In all likelihood, he’s simply framing the narrative through a singular lens: financial benefits for both The Tar Heel State and North Carolina online sportsbooks. And if we view his comments from this angle, we can see that he is right. The launch of sports betting in The Tar Heel State is already a rousing success.
North Carolina Sports Betting Doubled Projected Tax Revenue in Year 1
As it turns out, the amount of total bets in North Carolina over the past year has obliterated expectations. By extension, the state has easily outstripped initial tax-revenue projections. Here is Connor Smith of WECT 6 News with more:
“Over $6 billion has been wagered in North Carolina since March 11, 2024 – the date it became legalized – and the state has brought in roughly double the tax revenue initially projected, bringing in around $130 million over the last 12 months. This March should fuel another hot month for betting numbers, experts say, especially with multiple North Carolina schools -- including UNCW -- playing in March Madness. ‘Initially, projections from the [state] legislators' economists were that sports wagering would take until year four to generate something like $120 million a year,’ Ryan said. ‘The industry has already eclipsed that – just in year one.’”
Exceeding original sports betting forecasts is not that novel. States tend to skew toward conservative projections to protect themselves against any unforeseen issues following sports gambling launches. Most of the time, you will see Year 1 outperform the initial expectations.
This is especially true when it comes to sports betting volume. Revenue in Year 1 can often fluctuate due to the aggressive bonuses and promotions offered by online sportsbooks as part of the launch. These offers drive plenty of volume. They can, however, have adverse impacts on the total profits. It all depends on how states tax sportsbooks on promotions—and, of course, how well bettors fare on their wagers.
Even when accounting for those caveats, the opening performance of North Carolina sports betting is jaw-dropping. More than doubling expected output is not just a big deal. It is patently absurd. The question is: Will this signal a macro trend? Or is this perhaps a new-to-the-party blip?
Will Sports Betting in The Tar Heel State be as Successful in Year 2?
Experts will continue to declare legal sports betting in North Carolina as a major financial success. They are not incorrect to do so. But everyone may want to wait and see how things play out during Year 2 before recategorizing expectations and revenue potential.
Then again, maybe not.
As Smith alludes to in his Year 1 synopsis, betting on March Madness in 2025 can be the springboard into a massively successful second go-round. Indeed, North Carolina sports betting was live in time for the state to capitalize on last season’s March Madness tournament. That was the entire point of the state’s launch date. Tailoring operational debuts to tentpole events—such as Super Bowl betting, MLB playoffs betting, NBA Finals betting, etc.—is standard practice.
At the same time, a mid-March launch also gave North Carolina bettors less runway to bet on March Madness. Early-round betting, in particular, may have suffered.
Remember, not everyone is pouncing on the opportunity to create online sports betting accounts right off the bat. Enthusiastic bettors fall under that bucket. More casual wagerers may take a few weeks—or months—before dipping their toes into the water.
That is not an obstacle this year. Put simply, the number of active North Carolina sports betting accounts was no doubt much higher by the start of March Madness this year than it was last year. This, in turn, sets the stage for an even more lucrative round of betting. And it gives The Tar Heel State a relatively strong chance of furthering year-over-year growth in 2025.
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