Who’s ready for another weekend chock full of betting on 2023 NFL props? In Week 5, we decided to focus on the highest and lowest scoring teams and games. We might return to that well soon. This time, however, we’re looking at the best NFL prop betting picks for QBs in Week 6, with most of the games taking place on Sunday, October 15.
For this exercise, we’ll keep things straight forward. Linemakers have cobbled together for odds on how many passing yards NFL quarterbacks will stack up in Week 6. These online NFL prop odds will take the form of over/under betting lines. Our mission is to pick the most intriguing ones, and determine whether the signal-caller in questions rises above the projected threshold or falls below it.
Before we go any further, here are the latest NFL online betting odds Week 6 quarterback passing lines. Please note that only about half of the QBs on the schedule currently have prop betting lines available:
Remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds right up until you place your wager. Our NFL week 6 prop betting odds are accurate entering Thursday, October 12. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments prior to opening kick-off.
Patrick Mahomes obviously catches our attention, because, well, he’s Patrick Mahomes. And with the Kansas City Chiefs facing off against the Denver Broncos on Thursday, October 12, at 8:15 p.m. eastern standard time, we will begin with him (and Russell Wilson!) and then move on to the rest of our NFL Week 6 prop betting predictions.
Will Patrick Mahomes Turn in One of His Best Passing Performances of the NFL Season in Week 6?
At first glance, Patrick Mahomes’ passing-yard total of 268.5 feels like a no-brainer “over” selection. But he has only eclipsed that mark twice so far this season. Can we be sure he’ll do so for a third time against the Broncos?
Apparently, yes. The public has pounded the “over” on this number. To be honest, it’s a little hard to see why. Yes, he’s freaking Patrick Mahomes. And the Chiefs are playing at home. And the Broncos are 1-4, with the worst defense in the NFL. But Denver is also 11th in net yards allowed per passing attempt, and Mahomes hasn’t topped 266 yards since Week 3.
Still, we’re giving Kansas City’s flamethrower the benefit of the doubt. Wideout Rashee Rice has given the Chiefs a surprise downfield threat, and Mahomes has spit out fewer than 270 passing yards in three consecutive games just twice over the past two years.
OSB Prediction: Patrick Mahomes, over 268.5 passing yards (-115)
Be Wary of Russell Wilson Going Up Against the Chiefs Defense
Bettors have so far favored Russell Wilson going over 218.5 passing yards (-115), but we’re a little more skeptical. Though the Broncos are 10th in points per game, he isn’t lighting it up behind the offensive line. Wilson is averaging just 7.4 yards gained per completion, and he has cleared 225 yards just twice this season.
Granted, Wilson can throw for under 225 yards and still technically clear this line. But the Chiefs aren’t fifth in points allowed per game by accident. Their pass prevention has punted on interceptions in favor of limiting options. So far, it’s working. Kansas City is seventh in both net yards surrendered per passing attempt and total passing yards allowed. Wilson will have his work cut out for him.
OSB Prediction: Russell Wilson, under 218.5 passing yards (-105)
Is Lamar Jackson Overdue for a Big Game?
Clearing 223.5 passing yards seems like it should be a breeze for someone as talented as Lamar Jackson. But the Baltimore Ravens depend on him so much in their ground game that it cannibalizes what he does through the air.
Case in point: Last year, Jackson eclipsed 225 passing yards just twice. And he cleared 300 passing on only one occasion.
This year, Jackson has already topped 225 passing yards twice. The catch? Jackson’s season-high passing yards peter out at 236. This is to say, the over/under here feels right.
With all of this in mind, we’re tilting toward the “over.” The Ravens face the Titans on Sunday, October 15, at 9:30 a.m. eastern standard time, and Tennessee currently ranks 20th in passing yards allowed per completion as well as 28th in total passing yards surrendered.
OSB Prediction: Lamar Jackson, over 223.5 passing yards (-105)
Is Joe Burrow Once Again One of the Most Dependable Quarterbacks in the NFL?
A calf injury severely limited Joe Burrow to start the Cincinnati Bengals’ season. Their passing attack shows it. The Bengals are 29th in net yards gained per completion.
However, Burrow has looked a lot healthier and more mobile over the past two weeks. In Week 5, specifically, he lit up the Arizona Cardinals for 317 yards through the air. The week before that, against the Los Angeles Rams, he finished with 259 passing yards.
Linemakers have set his passing yards total at 271.5, which feels incredibly ambitious. On the flip side, the Bengals are pulling the Seattle Seahawks in Week 6 on Sunday, October 15, at 1 p.m. eastern standard time. The Seahawks still have one of the league’s shakiest defenses.
Then again, Seattle is working on a “buy” and has actually displayed some promise when it comes to pass prevention. They are 11th in net yards allowed per completion and a rock-solid 16th in total passing yards allowed for the entire season.
Burrow may be “back,” but that doesn’t mean we should expect him to start cycling through 275–plus-yard performances every week.
OSB Prediction: Joe Burrow, under 271.5 passing yards (-115)
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