To say the 2023 NFL season is right around the corner would be an understatement. It's actually closer than that. Opening night is less than two months away at this writing, which means we're overdue to deliver some 2023 NFL betting picks for the leaders in the most important statistical categories.
We consider these wagers to be sleeper doo-dads. They are not the most popular 2023 NFL futures, but the early lines give bettors the chance to earn muuuch better than even money on individual lines.
With that in mind, let's begin with which player will have the most passing touchdowns this season. Here are the latest online NFL betting odds for this category:
| Most Passing TDs |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +300 | +300 | +300 |
| Josh Allen | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Justin Herbert | +550 | +550 | +550 |
| Joe Burrow | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Kirk Cousins | +1100 | +1100 | +1100 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +1400 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Lamar Jackson | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Geno Smith | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Dak Prescott | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Jared Goff | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Russell Wilson | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Deshuan Watson | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 |
| Derek Carr | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Matthew Stafford | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Mac Jones | +5000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Kenny Pickett | +6000 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Jordan Love | +6000 | +6000 | +6000 |
| C.J. Stroud | +6000 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Bryce Young | +6000 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Baker Mayfield | +6000 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Daniel Jones | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Justin Fields | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Desmond Ridder | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 |
Please remember to continue checking these lines until you actually submit your predictions. Year-end stat leaders won't be cemented before sometime in December at the absolute earliest. That gives the best online sportsbooks in the United States plenty of time to futz and fiddle with the betting odds for who will have the most touchdown passes.
Patrick Mahomes (+300) of the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs has emerged as the odds-on favorite to win this honor for the second year in a row. Should he be your pick? And what other 2023 NFL stat leaders are worth betting on? Read on for our fresh-out-of-the-oven predictions!
Should You Invest in Patrick Mahomes' NFL Betting Odds for the Most Passing Touchdowns?
It's tough to argue against Mahomes' status as the favorite for this category. He continues to headline perhaps the NFL's most potent offense, and no one came close to touching him last season.
Mahomes finished 2022 with a league-leading 41 passing touchdowns. The next closest quarterbacks were Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals, who each threw 30 TDs. Both of them could be in the mix this year, but can they make up such a huge gap when the talent around Mahomes hasn't regressed?
If you're looking for worthwhile alternatives, Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers (+550) and Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins (+1400) are currently catching our eye.
Overall, though, we can't bring ourselves to bet against Mahomes. Especially when he pays out 3-to-1.
OSB Prediction: Patrick Mahomes (+300)
Who Will Have the Most Passing Yards in 2023?
Here are the top 10 NFL betting odds for who will have the most passing yards in 2023:
- Patrick Mahomes (+250)
- Justin Herbert (+700)
- Joe Burrow (+750)
- Kirk Cousins (+1100)
- Josh Allen (+1100)
- Tua Tagovailoa (+1400)
- Trevor Lawrence (+1600)
- Dak Prescott (+2000)
- Jared Goff (+2500)
- Aaron Rodgers (+2800)
Mahomes won this category in a landslide last year, beating out second place by nearly 1,000 yards. We could easily see him taking home first place again this season.
And yet, we're drawn to Tua Tagovailoa. He averages more yards per passing attempt, and the volume should be there in Miami this season. If he can stay healthy, he ends up being fantastic value at 14-to-1.
OSB Prediction: Tua Tagovailoa (+1400)
2023 NFL Betting Odds for the Most Rushing Touchdowns During the Regular Season
Here are the top NFL betting odds for who will lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns during the 2023 regular season:
- Jalen Hurts (+750)
- Nick Chubb (+750)
- Derrick Henry (+900)
- Jonathan Taylor (+1000)
- Josh Jacobs (+1200)
- Austin Ekeler (+1400)
- Saquon Barkley (+1400)
- Bijan Robinson (+14000)
- Tony Pollard (+1800)
- Joe Mixon (+1800)
Color us surprised that Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles (+750) checks in as a co-favorite alongside Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns (+750). Philadelphia figures to have Hurts working through the air more this season. Meanwhile, Chubb may see his volume drop in Cleveland's offense now that QB1 Deshaun Watson will go through a training camp.
Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans (+900) is never a bad bet in this spot. We could see Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants (+1400) juicing up his TDs, as well.
In the end, we like the idea of going with Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers (+1400). He finished second in this category last year, and his share of the Chargers' offense isn't expected to drop.
OSB Prediction: Austin Ekeler (+1400)
Who Will Lead the NFL in Receiving Touchdowns This Year?
Buckle up for this category. It's going to be a wild ride. Here are the latest betting odds for who will lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns during the 2023 season:
- Ja'Marr Chase (+600)
- Cooper Kupp (+850)
- Travis Kelce (+850)
- Davante Adams (+850)
- A.J. Brown (+1200)
- Justin Jefferson (+1200)
- Tyreek Hill (+1200)
- Stefon Diggs (+1400)
- CeeDee Lamb (+1600)
- Garrett Wilson (+1800)
We would be inclined to bet on Davante Adams of the Las Vegas Raiders (+850) to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns for the second consecutive year. However, we don't trust the passing offense to work as well with Jimmy Garoppolo now under center.
Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs (+850) came in second last year during his first season without Tyreek Hill. He remains intriguing. So does Tyreek Hill himself (+1200); he's now the headliner of Miami's pass-heavy offense.
Ultimately, we think Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills (+1400) is being undervalued by most of the best online NFL betting sites. The Bills throw the ball in bunches, and he is, by far, Josh Allen's favorite target.
If you can't bring yourself to go with Diggs, consider taking a long-shot look at Jaylen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins (+2500). He ranks outside the top 10 names shown above, mostly because he and Tyreek Hill may cannibalize looks in Miami's offense. But the Dolphins throw the ball often and extremely deep. We wouldn't be surprised if Waddle winds up usurping Hill in the pecking order.
OSB Prediction: Stefon Diggs (+1400)
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