At first glance, the Buffalo Bills didn't get the most favorable pull for NFL Wild Card Weekend. They are squaring off against the Miami Dolphins, a team piloted by Tua Tagovailoa under center that has churned out more big-time offensive plays this season than any team other than the Kansas City Chiefs.
Dig a little deeper, though, and you start to see that this matchup may pan out in the Bills' favor. Most experts do not expect Tagovailoa to play against Buffalo. If they are correct, this torpedoes Miami's chances while guaranteeing a Buffalo victory.
The latest NFL online betting odds for Bills vs. Dolphins suggest this game is already over. You can see them below, courtesy of the folks over at Bovada:
Double-check these online NFL betting odds until you submit your NFL Wild Card prediction. Our odds for Bills vs. Dolphins are accurate entering Wednesday, January 11. That gives linemakers plenty of time to adjust their odds based on the action before kick-off, which is scheduled for Sunday, January 15, at 1 p.m. EST.
However, you don't have to worry about missing out on the most accurate NFL playoff betting lines if you sign up with the right odds provider. That's why we compiled reviews of all the top online sportsbooks. These in-depth guides are designed to help you spot the best NFL betting sites in the industry.
So are the Bills a lock to beat the Dolphins? Or are linemakers perhaps getting ahead of themselves, not just because they have Buffalo steamrolling Miami, but because they're giving the Bills NFL-best odds to win the 2023 Super Bowl even though they failed to secure a first-round buy? It's our mission to answer these questions while providing moneyline, points spread, and over/under predictions for the Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins matchup. Let's get to it.
The Buffalo Bills Moneyline is Steep, But It's Nevertheless the Smart Bet
A Bills vs. Dolphins Wild Card game should have all the makings of an epic showdown. After all, it pits a high-powered offense against a high-powered offense. So few teams are as talented at getting the ball downfield. If both squads are at full strength, we could be looking at a game filled with eight total touchdowns—or more.
Unfortunately, both squads are not at full strength. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is expected to miss yet another contest while in the league's concussion protocols. Some have speculated he might try to play, but we're betting that he won't. Tagovailoa has suffered three concussions this season, so having him take the field would open up the Dolphins and the NFL to a lot of negative scrutinies—especially if he ends up playing poorly or re-injuring himself.
This, of course, comes as a huge blow to the Dolphin's offense. They are averaging fewer than 17 points in games that Tagovailoa doesn't play. Worse, their primary backup, Teddy Bridgewater, isn't expected to be ready for Sunday's matchup as he recovers from a hand injury. That leaves Skylar Thompson to take a majority of the snaps, and he has not looked great in limited action this season.
Compare Miami's situation to Buffalo's, and you only grow even more certain the Bills will emerge victorious. Though quarterback Josh Allen is playing through his own injury, it hasn't hampered him the past few weeks. The Bills still have one of the most potent passing offenses to go along with one of the NFL's stingiest defenses.
We don't say this lightly, but all signs point to Buffalo positively obliterating Miami in the Wild Card round.
OSB Prediction: Buffalo Bills (-480)
Do the Miami Dolphins Have a Prayer of Covering the Point Spread vs. Buffalo?
Here is the latest NFL point spread betting odds for the Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins matchup this Sunday:
- Buffalo Bills, -9 (-110)
- Miami Dolphins, +9 (-110)
Do you know how we're all conditioned to hesitate before investing in teams favored by more than a touchdown? Well, we're not experiencing any second-guessing here.
Buffalo is sixth in net yards per passing attempt and second in total passing touchdowns, and they're going up against one of the league's weakest passing defenses. Allen and star wideout Stefon Diggs are going to have a field day.
With Tagovailoa under center, the Dolphins might have the firepower to go punch-for-punch with the Bills. But with a third-stringer calling the shots? Not so much. Miami will be lucky to lose by fewer than two touchdowns.
OSB Prediction: Buffalo Bills, -9 (-110)
How Does the Tua Tagovailoa Injury Impact the Over/Under for Bills vs. Dolphins?
Below you can see the latest NFL over/under betting odds for the Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills:
- Over 46.5 (-105)
- Under 46.5 (-115)
Betting the "over" in a game featuring the Tua-less Dolphins might seem counterintuitive. Rest assured, though, and this has nothing to do with Miami and everything to do with Buffalo.
The Bills are averaging 34 points over their past three games, a stretch that includes a victory over Miami in which they tallied 32 points. Buffalo knows how to pick apart this feebly constructed defense and will be able to do the lion's share of the heavy lifting to clear this over.
All the Dolphins need to do is score around 13 to 17 points. Even without Tua, we think they'll be good for that much.
OSB Prediction: Over 46.5 (-105)
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