Some people don't like betting on NFL props after the season is already underway. We are not among those people. Big-picture NFL prop bets absolutely offer great opportunities, even when games are already kicking off. If anything, they're even more enticing, because you have an actual sample size off which to base your predictions.
That's why we love investing in NFL prop bets during the early part of the schedule—like entering Week 3, which is where we're at during this writing. For this edition of our best NFL prop bets, we're focusing on wide receivers. Specifically, which wideout will lead the league in total reception yards for the entire season? Will it be Stefon Diggs of the Buffalo Bills? How about Jaylen Waddle or Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins? Should A.J. Brown of the Philadelphia Eagles be slotted into this discussion?
Options abound for this particular NFL prop bet. But before we get to our predictions, here's a look at the latest betting odds on the NFL, courtesy of BetOnline:
| Favorite |  |
|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | +600 |
| Cooper Kupp | +650 |
| Tyreek Hill | +850 |
| Stefon Diggs | +850 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | +1300 |
| Davante Adams | +1300 |
| Jaylen Waddle | +1400 |
| Courtland Sutton | +1900 |
| Mike Williams | +1900 |
| Christian Kirk | +2800 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | +2800 |
| Travis Kelce | +2800 |
| AJ Brown | +2800 |
| Mark Andrews | +4000 |
| Amari Cooper | +4000 |
| Mike Evans | +5000 |
| Brandin Cooks | +5000 |
| Marquise Brown | +5000 |
| Tee Higgins | +5000 |
| Tyler Lockett | +6000 |
| Michael Thomas | +6000 |
| Ceedee Lamb | +6000 |
| Gabriel Davis | +6000 |
| Diontae Johnson | +6000 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | +7500 |
| Garrett Wilson | +7500 |
| Rashod Bateman | +7500 |
| DJ Moore | +7500 |
| Darren Waller | +7500 |
| Terry McLaurin | +7500 |
| MIchael Pittman Jr. | +7500 |
| Keenan Allen | +7500 |
| Elijah Moore | +7500 |
| DK Metcalf | +7500 |
| Jerry Jeudy | +7500 |
| Drake London | +7500 |
Remember to double-check these NFL prop betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Since we won't know which receiver leads the league in total reception yards until the end of the year, sportsbooks will continue shifting their lines over the course of the season. Our odds for this NFL prop bet are accurate entering Week 3, so if you're making a selection anytime thereafter, you'll want to circle back.
Finally, anyone in need of a home for all of their NFL prop betting should consider checking out our reviews of the top online sportsbooks. The information we've compiled aims to help you find the best online NFL betting sites in 2022, all of which do a great job of servicing prop wagers.
Should Justin Jefferson Headline the Best NFL Prop Bets for Wide Receivers?
There is no way anyone had Justin Jefferson this high on the board entering the regular season. Sure, Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins likes to air it out, but the team also favors a more conservative play-calling approach.
Lo and behold, though, Jefferson enters Week 3 at No. 5 in total receiving yards while averaging a ridiculous 15.5 yards per catch.
Whether his long-range game can sustain remains to be seen, but the volume is going to be there for him, perhaps even more so than it already has. That renders him a good bet.
Bet on Stefon Diggs Instead of Cooper Kupp
Cooper Kupp (+650) currently has the edge over Stefon Diggs (+850) for this NFL prop bet. And for the life of us, we're not sure why.
Yes, Kupp is currently fourth in total yards. And yes, his volume—12 catches per game—isn't going anywhere. But frankly, we don't trust the Los Angeles Rams' offense enough to view him as a quasi-favorite.
Heck, even if you trust the Rams' offense, Kupp still isn't the most sensible bet. We already saw Los Angeles struggle against one elite defense this year, and they have a handful of others coming up on their schedule. Kupp may not see his volume drop, but he could suffer from facing a slew of gritty coverages.
Diggs, on the other hand, is the best downfield threat for a Buffalo Bills offense that loves slinging it as far as possible. His No. 2 ranking in total receiving yards is not some fluke. He may see his reception rate fall a bit from its current point of 87 percent, but this is someone who traffics almost exclusively in plays that rack up more than 13 yards.
Has Jaylen Waddle Leapfrogged Tyreek Hill Among the Best NFL Prop Bets?
This question seems ridiculous on its face. Tyreek Hill (+850) currently leads all receivers in total reception yards through two weeks, with a jaw-dropping 284. There is nio way his teammate—and a sophomore, no less—in Jaylen Waddle (+1400) has surpassed him. Right?
Wrong.
Hill is already seeing more aggressive coverages thrown his way. His average yards per catch is still up there (14.9), but it is trending downward. The extra bodies on top of him have also started to impact his reception rate, which has slipped to 76 percent.
Waddle is the primary benefactor of this additional focus on Hill. Not only is he third in total reception yards, with a ridiculous average of 16 yards per catch, but he's actually left money on the table. His 62.5 percent reception rate is lower than it should be when you consider how many of those throws were catchable. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he emerges as the most efficient and highly targeted wideout in the Miami Dolphins offense by season's end.
Who's the Best Dark Horse Bet to Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards?
Intriguing dark horses abound in this batch of NFL prop bets.
Travis Kelce (+2800) has seen his volume spike in the Kansas City Chiefs offense following the departure of Tyreek Hill. Christian Kirk (+2800) is flourishing—and seventh overall in total reception yards—in a Jacksonville Jaguars offense that suddenly looks competent. Courtland Sutton (+1900) is going to see his number climb as the Denver Broncos get used top playing with Russell Wilson.
And yet, we're most drawn to A.J. Brown. The Eagles offense has exploded out of the gate with Jalen Hurts under center, and Brown is both the primary target and longest-distance option in the system.
Better NFL Prop Bet: Davante Adams or Ja'Marr Chase?
Default to Davante Adams (+1300) at your own risk. The Las Vegas Raiders need him to rack up numbers, but Derek Carr is a notoriously unreliable quarterback.
Rookie Ja'Marr Chase (+1300) catches our eye more than Adams. It doesn't matter to us that the Bengals as a team have struggles.
Chase already has enviable chemistry with Joe Burrow, and if his reception rate ever climbs above the 60 percent mark it is at now, he'll have a real chance to lead the entire league in yards after the catch.
PREDICTION: Who will lead the NFL in Total Receiving Yards?
Can NFL prop bets also be used to offer an apology? Because that's what we're about to do.
Entering this season, we thought the Bills offense was wildly overrated. Well, we were wrong, and we're sorry. And Stefon Diggs is our pick to lead the NFL in receiving yards as a result.
This isn't some ceremonial prediction, either. It's the correct one. Diggs is averaging 135 receiving yards per game, fewer than 30 of which have come after the catch. The latter number is eventually going to climb, which safeguards him against a volume or reception rate drop-off.
And with the way Diggs' quarterback, Josh Allen, has been firing it downfield, it wouldn't shock us if the star wideout winds up having a 2,000-yard season.
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