Entering Week 4, no team in the NFL has thrown a splashier curveball into early-season betting on the Super Bowl than the 2023 Miami Dolphins. This week, they take their perfect record into a matchup with the Buffalo Bills, on Sunday, October 1, at 1 p.m. eastern standard time, on the field at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York.
Without question, AFC East Division rival Buffalo presents Miami’s toughest test yet. Can the Dolphins emerge from this showdown sporting a 4-0 record and, most critically, a chokehold on winning the 2023 AFC East title? It’s definitely a possibility. But the latest online NFL betting odds aren’t predicting it:
Please remember to double-check these NFL online betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Bills vs. Dolphins betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, September 26. That gives the best NFL online betting sites more than enough time to make changes ahead of opening kickoff on Sunday afternoon.
This Dolphins vs. Bills moneyline is primed for movement, too. The margin separating the two is razor thin. All it takes is a couple of huge bets in Miami’s direction to shift the market. Ditto for any lineup or injury updates we might receive during the middle of the week.
So, who wins this matchup between two Super Bowl hopefuls? Let’s hop to your Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Week 4 predictions!
Why Aren’t the Miami Dolphins Favored to Come in and Beat the Buffalo Bills?
A moneyline favoring the Bills wouldn’t typically be surprising. Even now, it’s far from shocking. Buffalo is playing at home, and despite collapsing against the New York Jets in Week 1, they have rebounded nicely, winning their past two games by a combined 62 points. And no, that is not a typo.
Still, the Dolphins have the better record while holding up against superior competition. They edged out the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1 and fended off the New England Patriots in Week 2. Both of those wins came on the road. Then, this past week, the Dolphins debuted at home by hanging 70 points—again, that’s not a typo—on the Denver Broncos and winning by 50 points. The amount of damage Miami is inflicting on offense is beyond description. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa looks unstoppable. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill is emerging as an MVP candidate. Miami has so far looked the part of not just a Super Bowl contender, but a championship favorite. As Pro Football Network’s Dalton Miller wrote of their Week 4 annihilation of the Broncos:
“The Dolphins gained 726 yards on offense against the Broncos, which is the most all-time. They scored 70 points, just three shy of the 73 points that Chicago scored in 1940. For a modern-day game in a salary cap league, it’s embarrassing to allow a day like that. But boy, does this Dolphins offense look special. They did that to Denver without Jaylen Waddle! For a while, it appeared Tua Tagovailoa wouldn’t have an incompletion all game. Rookie De’Von Achane ran for 200 yards. Raheem Mostert picked up 82 himself.”
Buffalo, of course, is a different beast altogether. Even with their loss to the Jets on the docket, they still rank second in both points scored and points allowed per game. Miami’s defense has proven shaky at times, which paves the way for the Bills to win a potential shootout.
We nevertheless question whether Buffalo has the defensive weaponry to slow every aspect of this offense. The Bills are sixth in net yards allowed per passing attempt and will put more pressure on Tagovailoa than he’s seen all season. But they’re also dead last in net yards allowed per rushing attempt and going against a Miami backfield that, it seems, now stretches two top-tier playmakers deep. We recommend jumping on the Dolphins while they’re still paying out better than even money.
OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins (+120)
Don’t Be Surprised if Miami vs. Buffalo Comes Down to the Final Possession
The latest NFL point spread betting odds on Bills vs. Dolphins seem spot-on to us. Sort of. Check them out below:
- Buffalo Bills, -2.5 (-118)
- Miami Dolphins, +2.5 (+104)
Obviously, we don’t agree with who’s favored. We also don’t understand why the markets are inflating the Bills’ end of the spectrum. Perhaps it’s a reaction to Jaylen Waddle’s injury in Miami.
Even so, getting better than even money for betting on Miami to cover an underdog spread feels like a good opportunity if you don’t want to work the moneyline.
OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins, +2.5 (+104)
Not Surprisingly, NFL Oddsmakers are Expecting the Bills and Dolphins to Put on an Offensive Show
No game on the NFL Week 4 schedule is laying a higher over/under this one. See for yourself how high the line is coming in:
- Over 53.5 (-105)
- Under 53.5 (-115)
Two of Miami’s first three games would have (easily) cleared this “over.” However, the Bills defense has allowed no more 16 points to an opponent through their first trio of outings. That makes this a rather aggressive line.
The time of year renders it even more difficult to parse. If it were later in the year, the cold weather could play a big role in repressing the final score.
Since we’re feeling bold, and we are also incredibly high on the Dolphins, we’re going to swing for the fences and roll with the “over.” Miami’s offense is something we haven’t seen before. We can’t be afraid to believe in them.
OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins (-105)
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