The Los Angeles Chargers continue to ride yet another season-long roller coaster. But nine games into their season, and coming off a Week 10 loss to the Detroit Lions, they badly need to string together some victories if they’re going to improve their odds of making the 2023 NFL playoffs.
Knowing their track record, this is a tall order. And their Week 11 matchup isn’t doing them many favors. The Chargers will travel to Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, on Sunday, November 19, at 1 p.m. eastern standard time, to take on the Packers. Though the latest NFL online betting odds have them billed as favorites, they’re far from a sure thing:
Like usual, please remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Chargers vs. Packers Week 11 betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, November 14. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on Sunday afternoon.
Despite entering Week 11 at 3-6, the Packers have proven to be a tough out for many of their opponents. They rank 11th in points allowed per game, and they have one of the eight highest conversion rates on both third and fourth downs.
Does that give them enough juice to pull off the upset? Would it even be considered an upset if they won? What do the Chargers have going for them in this matchup? And who should you pick to win this matchup? Let’s get to some Packers vs. Chargers predictions!
The Green Bay Packers’ Home Struggles Should be a Concern Heading into Matchup with Los Angeles Chargers
Playing in Green Bay has not been especially kind to the Packers this season. While they are 2-2 on their own turf, they actually have a minus-10 point differential at Lambeau Field. To their credit, some of their not-as-close losses came at the hands of quality opponents, including the Lions in Week 4 and a healthier Minnesota Vikings team in Week 8. This version of the Chargers is inferior to both those squads.
Still, Green Bay’s offense is in the process of cratering. The Packers are averaging under 16 points over their past five games and have not topped 21 points since Week 2. Playing Los Angeles’ defense is often a cure-all for ailing offenses, so there’s that. The Chargers rank 30th in net yards allowed per passing attempt.
But that means only so much to the Packers when their quarterback, Jordan Love, is completing under 53 percent of his passes. And this is with the offensive line playing relatively well. Love has been pressured on just 18.4 percent of his drop-backs this season, one of the lowest marks in the league. Defenses are unconcerned with giving him time to make decisions. They prefer to try containing his passing targets.
Despite their defensive struggles, the Chargers are built to follow that muddle. They have one of the eight highest sack percentages among NFL defenses. If they scale that back, they can devote resources to reining in plays made down the field. And with the exception of their stands against the run, Los Angeles has actually been relatively solid preventing scores in the red zone. They also rank third in opponent conversion rate on third down.
This is ultimately the difference for us. Green Bay doesn’t have the talent to exploit the Chargers’ greatest weaknesses. Los Angeles might be thrown by the cold weather, but they should be able to pull this out.
OSB Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers (-164)
Can Green Bay Keep It Close Against Los Angeles?
If you buy into the accuracy of the Chargers vs. Packers point spread betting lines, we could be in for a closely contested outcome:
- Los Angeles Chargers, -3 (-115)
- Green Bay packers, +3 (-105)
A Packers cover is not outside the realm of possibility. They have cobbled together a stingy defense by focusing on containment. Green Bay does not force a lot of interceptions (24th), but they are eighth in net yards allowed per pass attempt, and their base 3-4 defense gave Kansas City fits earlier this season.
However, when the Chargers win, they tend to win decidedly. Their average margin of victory in wins is 12.3 points. We’d expect them to win this one by fewer than double digits, but we’re also not opposed to the idea of drumming up the spread to six or seven points if you’re looking to juice your potential returns.
OSB Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers, -3 (-115)
Which Version of the Chargers Defense will Show Up vs the Packers in Week 11?
True to form, the Chargers’ defense has been up and down all season. While the numbers paint them as a pushover, they’ve turned in some stingy performances, most notably holding the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Giants to 17 points apiece in back-to-back weeks earlier this year. However, the latest NFL over/under betting lines for Los Angeles vs. Green Bay don’t seem convinced that this could be a lower-scoring matchup:
- Over 43.5 (-115)
- Under 43.5 (-105)
In our humble opinion, we feel like the “under” is being undervalued here. This line rests on the Packers turning in at least a half-competent performance on the more glamorous side of the field. If recent weeks have taught us anything, that’s simply not in the cards.
Getting to play at home could make a difference, but it’ll probably be negligible. The Packers are averaging fewer than 20 points per game at Lambeau Field and have scored a combined 30 points over their last two appearances in Green Bay.
Ask yourself this: What’s more likely to happen, the Packers offense explodes or the Chargers’ offense fails to go kaboom? The latter is the clear answer. And that’s why we’re going with the “under.”
OSB Prediction: Over 43.5 (-105)
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