Well, it’s happening again: The Los Angeles Chargers are disappointing relative to loftier expectations. On the bright side, the 2023 NFL season is still young. Los Angeles has time to get it right. But not too much time. This is to say, their match up with the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, October 1, at 4:05 p.m. eastern standard time, on the field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California is a big one.
Playing at home is typically a boon for the Chargers offense. But after opening the season 0-2, before picking up a win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3, the latest online NFL betting odds barely give Los Angeles the benefit of the doubt:
Like always, please remember to double-check these NFL online betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Chargers vs. Raiders betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, September 26. That gives the best NFL online betting sites more than enough time to make changes ahead of opening kickoff on Sunday afternoon.
Everyone monitoring this game will want to brace themselves for some movement. Raiders starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a concussion in the team’s Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. His status for this showdown with the Chargers remains up in the air.
Of course, many will point out the Raiders offense has been awful under Jimmy G. So, could a shakeup at quarterback do Las Vegas some good? We’ll get into that—and more. Let’s dive into our Raiders vs. Chargers picks!
The Los Angeles Chargers May Not be a Bona Fide Contender, But They’ve Perhaps Turned a Corner
Despite a couple of key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, the Chargers still rank sixth in points scored per game. What’s more, they have not scored fewer than 24 points in any single contest. That’s an impressive feat under the circumstances. Wide receiver Mike Williams just suffered an injury, and running back Austin Ekeler remains on the sidelines. Quarterback Justin Herbert is completing an NFL-best 74.4 percent of his passes and would probably be an early NFL MVP candidate if the Chargers had a winning record.
Yet, Los Angeles has a 1-2 record. Their issues are twofold. Firstly, they are extremely one dimensional on offense. The running game does not have a lot of flair without Ekeler in the fold. Secondly, and most critically, the Chargers struggle to get stops–in every way imaginable. Los Angeles is 21st in net yards allowed per rushing attempt and a mind-meltingly detrimental 30th in net yards allowed per passing play. The secondary has forced a handful of turnovers; they are 10 in interceptions. But those plays are high-risk and not always successful. Overly aggressive coverage has contributed to the Chargers ranking dead last in total passing yards allowed on the season.
With that said, a match up with the Raiders may be just what the doctor ordered. They have thrown more interceptions this season than any other team. And while Las Vegas does rank eighth in net yards per passing attempt, Jimmy G’s likely absence throws a wrench into that performance. His backup is Brian Hoyer, a 37-year-old who doesn’t have the same arm strength as his fellow QB.
Make no mistake, there is some risk here. The Chargers will be uncomfortably reliant on the Justin Herbert-Keenan Allen dynamic if Mike Williams is, as expected, out of action. But the Raiders have been so unimpressive this season, on both offense and defense, that we have little issue predicting a Chargers victory.
OSB Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers (-205)
Will Los Angeles Be Able to Pick up a Comfortable Victory?
Below you can see the latest NFL odds on the point spread for Chargers vs. Raiders:
- Los Angeles Chargers, -6 (-105)
- Las Vegas Raiders, +6 (-115)
Confidence in the Chargers winning by almost a touchdown clearly isn’t all that high, otherwise they’d be paying out -115 rather than -105. We understand the skepticism. Mike Williams’ injury looms large, the running game is inconsistent, the secondary is vulnerable, and all three of their games so far have been determined by three points or fewer.
This nonetheless feels like a breakout week for the Chargers…on the defensive end. The Raiders do a terrible job of protecting the ball. Even if they complete a few big plays down the field, turnovers could prove costly against the Chargers’ secondary schemes.
Plus, for all of Los Angeles’ defensive issues, they rank in the top half of the league at stopping opponents on third and fourth downs. Bake in the Raiders’ potential change at quarterback, and this could be a game the Chargers win by double digits. It wouldn’t surprise us if they wind up being favored by more than a touchdown should Jimmy G eventually get ruled out while in concussion protocol.
OSB Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers, -6 (-105)
Jimmy G’s Absence Looms Large When Betting the Chargers vs. Raiders Point Total
If linemakers are worried about the Raiders offense regressing with or without Jimmy G, they’re not showing it with the latest NFL point spread betting odds:
- Over 47.5 (-115)
- Under 47.5 (-105)
The market has so far flocked toward the “under.” Does that say more about their faith in Raiders backup QB Brian Hoyer? Or is it more about a lack of faith in the Chargers defense, which has surrendered at least 24 points in each of their first three games?
Perhaps it’s a little of both. Either way, we can’t bring ourselves to work the “over.” Even if Hoyer proves to be an upgrade at QB, the Raiders passing offense is working from a relatively low baseline. And on top of that, there’s a chance the Chargers’ own offense loses a little bit of punch without two of their three best non-QB weapons in Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler.
OSB Prediction: Under 47.5 (-105)
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