Many were wondering whether we’d get to see the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins square against each other during the 2024 NFL playoffs. And though most were hoping they’d face off in the 2024 AFC Championship, football heads are mostly getting their wish heading into 2024 Wild Card Weekend.
- What: Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins
- Date: Saturday, January 13, 2024
- Time: 8:15 p.m. eastern standard time
- Where: GEHA Filed at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
- Point Spread: Chiefs (-3.5), Dolphins (+3.5)
Reigning Super Bowl Champions will always get the benefit of the doubt when looking at the next year’s playoff matchups. The Chiefs are no exception here. Especially because they’re playing at home. But it might interest you to know that the latest NFL online betting odds leading into Saturday night do not paint Kansas City as a decided favorite:
Remember to keep double-checking these online NFL playoff betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Chiefs vs. Dolphins betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, January 9. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on January 13.
Two questions are being asked more frequently than others heading into this battle of NFL AFC heavyweights. The first: Is the Chiefs offense up to the task of not only keeping up with the Dolphins’ attack, but repeating as Super Bowl champs? The second: Can Miami buck the season-long trend of wilting in the spotlight when pitted against opponents with winning records? One way or another, both of these questions will get answers during 2024 NFL Wild Card Weekend. But we’re here to shed some clarity well in advance of the final outcome.
The Kansas City Chiefs Should be Heavier Favorites to Take Down the Miami Dolphins
Rolling with the Dolphins is tempting in any given matchup. It’s hard not to fall in love with their offense when they’re operating at their absolute peak. Miami finished the regular season ranking second in points per game with 29.2, and no team racked up more total passing yards. The chemistry between quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and superstar wideout Tyreek Hill remains as dangerous as ever, a dynamic that is capable of carving up even the stingiest secondaries.
On top of all that, the Dolphins have started to show positive signs on the defensive side of the ball. Though they rank 22nd in points allowed per game on the year, they have been surrendering just 20.4 points over their past 10 contests. That number would be even lower if you filter out the 56 points they forfeited to the NFL-best Baltimore Ravens in Week 17.
Still, despite the rosy harbingers, Miami has struggled immensely to keep up with teams they should consider peers. The Dolphins finished the season 1-5 against opponents over .500, with that lone victory coming over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16—and by only two points. In their first meeting with the Chiefs this season, Miami mustered just 14 points and wound up losing by seven.
Expecting a different outcome here is, frankly, tough. The Dolphins’ improved defense should allow them to keep things close. They almost beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 18 to clinch the AFC East title and avoid this very matchup. But Miami’s own offense has not stood up well to elite defenses. And make no mistake, Kansas City’s defense is elite. Not only did they finish second in points allowed per game, but their passing prevention is out of this world. They are fourth in total passing touchdowns allowed, and only three teams forfeit fewer net yards per passing attempt.
Facing the Dolphins’ downfield attack is, of course, a different type of matchup altogether. But Kansas has already survived it, and they didn’t need to rely on force turnovers to do it. This game should be close. Ultimately, though, it’s difficult for us to imagine Miami emerging victorious given its regular season track record in these situations.
OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-120)
Is the Chiefs’ Offense Good Enough to Create Real Separation from the Dolphins
Okay, so we have the Chiefs beating the Dolphins. But will they also be able to cover their latest NFL playoff point spread betting odds? The lines are in, and after looking at them, we’re not so sure:
- Kansas City Chiefs, -3.5 (-110)
- Miami Dolphins, +3.5 (-110)
Razor-thin point spreads aren’t typically our thing. When it’s four or five points or fewer, we typically default to the favorite—provided we expect them to win. That logic should apply here.
And yet, we find ourselves prepared to deviate from it.
Yes, the Dolphins defense is part of the equation. Mostly, however, the Chiefs offense has been absurdly rickety. Kansas City finished 15th in points scored per game, which is a wild thing to say about an attack piloted by Patrick Mahomes. Over their last 10 games, in fact, they scored more than 25 points just twice. Given how much the Chiefs embrace 60-minute slogs these days, we have a feeling their margin of victory will be under four points.
OSB Prediction: Miami Dolphins, +3.5 (-110)
Be Wary of the Point Total for Kansas City vs. Miami
Linemakers are showing some restraint with the latest Chiefs vs. Dolphins over/under betting odds, but not much:
- Over 44 (-110)
- Under 44 (-110)
The first time around, these two teams combined for 35 points—a total miles below this 44-point threshold. We have a hard time believing Kansas City’s defensive play will let the score increase by more than a touchdown in the Wild Card showdown.
Miami’s defensive improvement is another thing to consider here. The Chiefs haven’t moved the ball at will for most of the year. So, unless the Dolphins get out to a big lead and turn this thing into a shootout, we expect the final total to land somewhere between 38 and 42 points.
OSB Prediction: Under 44 (-110)
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