At 4-1 entering Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs are lording over the AFC West Division, just like everyone expected. But while you wouldn’t necessarily know it from looking at their record or point differential (plus-48), they are grappling with existential questions as they ready to face the Denver Broncos on Thursday, October 12, at 8:15 p.m. eastern standard time on the gridiron at GEHA Field inside Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.
The prevailing question they encounter: Are they as good as they’re supposed to be? Or is there much left to be desired?
For what it’s worth, the latest NFL online betting odds for Kansas City vs. Denver currently show zero doubt in the Chiefs. The public, as you can see below, has pounced on their moneyline:
Please remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds prior to submitting your wager. Our Chiefs vs. Broncos betting odds are accurate entering Wednesday, October 11. That gives the best NFL online betting sites more than enough time to make adjustments based on the market ahead of opening kick-off on Thursday night.
As the Kansas City Chiefs betting line implies, though, there’s not supposed to be anything groundbreaking to tackle leading into this matchup. Respectfully, however, we disagree. And with that, it’s time to dig into our Chiefs vs. Broncos predictions.
The Kansas City Chiefs Seem a Little More Vulnerable Than Their Record Might Imply
Far be it from us to doubt the merit of a premiere NFL Super Bowl betting option like Kansas City. They are, after all, fresh off a Week 5 victory over the rock-solid Minnesota Vikings. Still, the Chiefs’ schedule has not exactly been gangbusters. They played the Detroit Lions and their explosive offense in Week 1, but that’s a matchup they lost. And while their point differential is approaching plus-50 on the year, that number is inflated by the 31-point drubbing they handed to the NFL-worst Chicago Bears. Indeed, Kansas City’s other three victories have come by a combined 21 points—an average margin of seven points per win. That’s not exactly ultra-lethal stuff.
Furthermore, the Chiefs defense has not generated turnovers at an especially high rate. They are 29th in interceptions forced, and they also rank 23rd in net yards allowed per rushing attempt. The decline in defensive playmaking could come back to bite them against the Broncos offense that has been frisky on the ground and, at times, through the air as well.
Of course, perhaps we’re making much ado about nothing. The Chiefs did not have star tight end Travis Kelce for their lone loss of the season, and the defense has managed to get stops in the aggregate, allowing just 16 points per game—the NFL’s fifth stingiest mark so far.
Playing on a short week could throw off Kansas City’s rhythm. But their second best offensive player this season has been the young wideout Rashee Rice, who leads everybody in catches, targets and touchdowns. This is all to say, the offense neither old nor slow. Bake in home-field advantage, and this should be a caps-lock WIN for Kansas City.
OSB Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs (-590)
Should the Chiefs be Favored by Double Digits to Beat the Broncos?
Analyzing this game gets a little more interesting when you look at the Chiefs vs. Broncos point spread betting odds, which you can see below:
- Kansas City Chiefs, +10.5 (-110)
- Denver Broncos, -10.5 (-110)
Clearly, the public is split on this action, hence why both lines still payout at -110. Though the Chiefs are obviously the better team, just one of their victories this season has come by more than 10 points. Now, that win came at home, which is where the Chiefs will be. But it also came against the Bears. And despite their 1-4 record to start, the Broncos are not the Bears.
Denver is presently 12th in points scored per game, with a balanced mix of passing (12th in net yards per passing attempt) and running (fourth in net yards per rushing attempt). What’s more, undrafted rookie running back Jaleel McLaughlin has been so good, the Broncos have essentially promised him more touches. That’s not great news for a Chiefs front seven that has let a couple of holds open up at times this year.
In the end, we don’t really expect Denver to threaten a victory. But we also think they’ll be able to remain within striking distance.
OSB Prediction: Denver Broncos, +10.5 (-110)
Linemakers are Not Expecting Denver’s Offense to Hold Up Against Kansas City’s Defense
With the way Denver has been scoring the ball, topping 30 points on two separate occasions, we expected the Chiefs vs. Broncos over/under to clear 50 points. As you can tell here, we were wrong:
- Over 47.5 (-110)
- Under 47.5 (-110)
This point total seems to be accounting for Kansas City’s defensive returns through Week 5 as well as the topsy-turvy production by Denver. The Broncos have two games of 30-plus points under their belt, but they’ve failed to eclipse 21 points in each of the other three.
That isn’t going to scare us away from the “over.” If nothing else, Denver’s No. 32 defense might invite a 35-plus-point detonation from the Chiefs. That would pave the way for an easy “over” cover.
OSB Prediction: Over 47.5 (-110)
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