With the Denver Broncos on a five-game winning streak entering Week 13, you’d probably expect them to be favored over the Houston Texans for their Sunday, December 3 showdown at 1 p.m. eastern standard time on the field at NRG Stadium in Houston Texas. Don’t be shy about admitting it. We thought they’d be favored, too.
But as the latest NFL online betting odds show, we were wrong:
As always, please remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you actually submit your wager. Our Broncos vs. Texans Week 13 betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, November 28. That gives the best NFL online betting sites plenty of time to make adjustments leading into opening kick-off on Sunday afternoon.
We can’t quite explain why the Texans are relatively comfortable favorites to beat the Broncos. Houston has been on its own tear, going 6-3 since starting 0-2. They also have the same record as Denver. And then there’s always the rising stock of ascending star quarterback CJ Stroud. He continues to make incredible plays with his arm and his legs.
There is likewise a school of thought that insists the Broncos are about to run out of steam. Their defense is supposed to be vulnerable. Quarterback play is supposed to be inconsistent. Their odds to make the NFL playoffs are modest, if not unimpressive. The Texans are the more explosive team, and therefore the better team.
Or so some think. But is this actually the case? Or are the Broncos being undervalued here and in the bigger picture?
Oddsmakers are Sleeping on the Denver Broncos Entering Week 13
The betting lines on Texans vs. Broncos feels like a classic case of reading too much into analytics without proper context. Yes, Denver technically has the worst defense in the NFL. But their standing is skewed by the 70 points they allowed to the Miami Dolphins earlier this season. Anyone who has been paying attention, though, knows their defense is on the come-up.
Over their past six games, the Broncos are allowing just 17.3 points. They’re not fattening up their stats on low-level offenses, either. This stretch has included two games against the Kansas City Chiefs as well as a meeting with the Buffalo Bills. Denver never allowed either squad to top 22 points. They actually held the Chiefs to under 20 points in both meetings, including an eight-point egg in Week 8.
Indeed, the Broncos’ passing offense can run hot and cold with Russell Wilson under center. But the overall offense still finds ways to score. Denver is averaging a rock-solid 23.4 points during their five-game winning streak. During this stretch, they have cleared 120 rushing yards on four occasions. So, even if Wilson isn’t moving the chains with his arm, he can get the ball downfield with his legs. The combination of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin has been sound, as well.
Frankly, we’re kind of shocked the Broncos aren’t favored overall. The Texans are good. And they are playing at home. Houston is also third in net yards allowed per rushing attempt. But that doesn’t account for squaring off with mobile quarterbacks like Wilson. And in the event they shut down Denver’s ground game, the Texans aren’t impenetrable through the air. They are 30th in net yards allowed per passing attempt. We’re taking the upset here.
OSB Prediction: Denver Broncos (+152)
Linemakers are at Least Projecting Broncos vs. Texans to be a Closely Contested Affair
If you’re afraid of betting on the Broncos to win outright, the latest NFL point spread betting lines offer a lower-risk opportunity:
- Houston Texans, -3.5 (-110)
- Denver Broncos, +3.5 (-110)
Granted, a 3.5-point spread doesn’t afford you much margin for error. But the Broncos are no strangers to close calls. Three of their victories during the five-gaming winning streak have come by fewer than five points.
For our money, we’d prefer to take the Denver Broncos moneyline. But if you’re more risk-averse, investing in the Broncos point spread is a reasonable way to go.
OSB Prediction: Denver Broncos, +3.5 (-110)
The Final Score of Houston vs. Denver Might End Up Surprising Us
It seems that linemakers and NFL bettors alike are done underestimating both the Broncos and Texans offenses. You can see why by looking at the latest NFL Week 13 over/under betting odds:
- Over 46.5 (-110)
- Under 46.5 (-110)
This is probably the right line looking at the past four games for both squads. The Broncos are averaging around 25 points during this stretch. The Texans, meanwhile, are clearing nearly 28 points per game in this span. If both teams hit their regular point totals, the final score will easily spill into 50s.
Denver’s defense feels like the wild card here. CJ Stroud is a menace through the air, and he has three rushing touchdowns on the season. But the Texans don’t lean on him to create with his legs too often. Plus, the Broncos have started to settle into third down and red zone situations.
Tack on Denver’s own up-and-down passing game, and this game is primed to be more of a grit-it-out defensive affair than linemakers and analysts expect. Believe us when we say that we’ve gone back-and-forth. But the “under” is our pick in the end.
OSB Prediction: Under 46.5 (-110)
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