We saw a dramatic shift in the Minnesota Vikings odds to win the Super Bowl after they got trucked by the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11. This skepticism seems to have ever so slightly carried over to their 2022 Thanksgiving Day matchup with the New England Patriots.
Oddsmakers have rendered the 8-2 Vikings only slight favorites, even though they're at home, where they have dominated virtually all season. This marks the second consecutive week in which they aren't a heavy favorite on their own turf. And while that proved to be the right call last Sunday against Dallas, will it be the case this Thursday, November 24, at 8:20 p.m. EST? Let's investigate.
Of course, before we do that, we need to take a look at the latest NFL online betting odds for Vikings vs. Patriots, courtesy of our friends over at BetUS:
Like always, please remember to double-check these online NFL betting odds until you have actually submitted your wager. Our Patriots vs. Vikings betting odds are accurate entering Tuesday, November 22. That gives linemakers plenty of time to make changes ahead of the NFL Thanksgiving Day extravaganza on Thursday.
And by the way: Did you also know that Thanksgiving Day is one of the biggest betting days of the year for NFL football? It's true. And if you wish to join the festivities, we highly recommend you check out our reviews of the top online sportsbooks. All of the information we've pieced together is designed to help you spot the best online NFL betting sites in 2022.
Anyway, as you can tell, the Vikings are not considered locks to win vs. the Patriots. Maybe that's the smart move. Or maybe it's not. Luckily, we're about to predict every inch of this game—including the point spread and over/under.
The Minnesota Vikings Should Fear the New England Patriots Defense, But They Won't Crumble Beneath It
Perhaps some of you are worried about the Vikings' offense after they mustered just three points—at home, no less—against the Cowboys last week. We are mostly unconcerned.
Though many metrics paint Minnesota as a mediocre team that has gotten lucky to this point, there's no denying the offensive magic they've flashed in recent weeks. Prior to their loss at the hands of Dallas, the Vikings were averaging around 28 points over their past seven games.
Of course, the Patriots enter this Thanksgiving Day matchup with the second-ranked defense in the entire league. Impressive still, they have surrendered just six points over their past two games...combined.
That is somewhat terrifying if you're the Vikings. New England is fourth in net yards allowed per passing attempt, and that's where Minnesota has struggled most. They are 22nd in net yards gained per passing attempt.
To be absolutely honest, we'd be clamoring for an upset if the Patriots had a more trustworthy offense. But they rank 28th in passing touchdowns and 28th in interceptions thrown. While Mac Jones has shown plenty of promise, including a knack for completing deep throws, he remains an inexperienced steward who should get outplayed by Minnesota's Kirk Cousins.
OSB Prediction: Minnesota Vikings (-148)
Should You Hedge Your Point Spread Bets for Minnesota vs. New England?
Here are the latest NFL point spread betting odds for Vikings vs. Patriots in Week 12:
- Minnesota Vikings, -2.5 (-118)
- New England Patriots, +2.5 (-104)
Given that we can see this game turning into a grind-it-out defensive affair, we're tempted to pick the Patriots to cover the spread. Except, when they lose, they tend to lose big. Three of their four losses on the season have come by double-digits.
More than anything, we have to account for the chance that the Vikings offense really does go kaboom. They have carved up a couple of stingy defenses over the past two months. New England's is by far the best they've faced, but so long as they can piece together 21 or more points, we think they're fairly likely to cover here.
OSB Prediction: Minnesota Vikings, -2.5 (-118)
This Over/Under for Vikings vs. Patriots is Much Too Low
Below you can find the latest NFL over/under betting odds for Patriots vs. Vikings in Week 12:
- Over 41.5 (-118)
- Under 41.5 (-104)
Once again, we find ourselves tempted to side with the Patriots defense. They have forfeited 17 or fewer points in each of their past three contests. If that trend holds against Minnesota, taking the under at 41.5 is almost a no-brainer.
But we can't see the Vikings getting clowned for a second straight week in front of their home crowd. They were averaging nearly 30 points per game in Minnesota before they got gobsmacked by the Cowboys.
Forced to choose, we'd say it's more likely the Vikings top four touchdowns than it is that they'd score 17 or fewer points. And if they can break the 25-point marker, you have to imagine the Patriots will hold up their end of the bargain. For all of their own struggles on offense, they are 12th in net yards per passing attempt, and Minnesota has struggled all year to shut down long-range passes.
OSB Prediction: Over 41.5 (-118)
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