- What: 2025 Capital One Orange Bowl
- When: January 9, 2025
- Who: Notre Dame vs. Penn State
- Time:Ā 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Orange Bowl Stadium (Miami, FL)
As the College Football Playoff heats up, all eyes are on the Orange Bowl showdown between the No. 6 seed Penn State Nittany Lions and the No. 7 seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
With both teams boasting impressive recordsāPenn State at 13-2 and Notre Dame at 13-1āthis matchup promises to be a nail-biter.
However, when you break down the stats and consider the current circumstances, it's clear that the Nittany Lions have the edge to pull off the upset.
There will be no shortage of Online college football bettingĀ as the college football season continues, and every game becomes a high-stakes chess match.
The betting lines reflect this sentiment, with Notre Dame currently favored by just 1 point. However, the analytics tell a different story.
A computer model that simulates the game 20,000 times gives Notre Dame a slim 58.7% chance of winning. However, that's hardly a commanding lead.
With the Nittany Lions' recent form and the Irish's injury concerns, it's not hard to see why many bettors are leaning toward Penn State.
Game Preview (Notre Dame vs. Penn State)
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The Nittany Lions' defensive leader, Abdul Carter, has been a force, racking up 22 tackles for loss and 11 sacks this season.
His presence on the field is a game-changer. If he can disrupt Notre Dame's offensive rhythm, it could spell trouble for the Irish.
On the other side of the ball, Penn State's rushing attack, led by the dynamic duo of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, has been spectacular.
They've combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns this season.
This potent ground game will be crucial against a Notre Dame defense that, while strong, has shown vulnerabilities, especially with the recent injury concerns surrounding their star players.
The Irish's top defensive lineman, Rylie Mills, is out, which could open up lanes for the Nittany Lions to exploit.
Let's address the elephant in the room: Notre Dame's injury issues.
Jeremiyah Love, the Irish's standout running back, has been hampered by a knee injury. The injury limited his effectiveness in the quarterfinals against Georgia.
He's been wearing a brace and has struggled to find his rhythm. This uncertainty raises serious questions about his ability to contribute effectively in this high-stakes game.
Miami, this is where we hustle āļø #GoIrish | Game 15 pic.twitter.com/clWFgZ7xYu
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) January 8, 2025
If Love can't perform at his best, Notre Dame's offense could become one-dimensional. Penn State will focus on shutting down their passing game.
Both teams have the talent to win.
However, Penn State's elite defense and potent rushing attack, combined with Notre Dame's injury issues, make the Nittany Lions the smart pick to advance to the national championship game.
With the stakes this high, expect Penn State to rise to the occasion and deliver a performance that will leave fans buzzing.
Take the point and back the Nittany Lions and prepare for a thrilling Orange Bowl showdown.
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Total Points (Fighting Irish vs. Nittany Lions)
Let's talk about Penn State's defense. Ranked seventh in the nation, they've been a brick wall, allowing just 15.8 points per game.
Their ability to stifle opposing offenses has been on full display, especially in their recent playoff victories over SMU and Boise State, where they held both teams to a combined 24 points.
Moreover, while impressive, Notre Dame's recent performance against Georgia showcased their reliance on turnovers to secure victory.
They lead the nation with 31 forced turnovers, but relying on this trend against a disciplined Penn State team that has only committed 14 turnovers all season could be a risky strategy.
White Out Energy šāŖļø#WeAre x #CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/iYZOyOaaVD
— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) January 7, 2025
The Nittany Lions have shown they can protect the ball, and if they can avoid mistakes, they'll have a significant advantage.
While 45 points is a low total, I'm expecting a slugfest in this matchup. The Nittany Lions red zone defense is elite and I could see Notre Dame leaving some points on the board.
Notre Dame doesn't kick many field goals and has been very aggressive in the red zone. It seems very likely they turn the ball over on downs in the red zone and keep the total low.
I would bet Under 45 points at -108 odds in this defensive showdown.
Check ourĀ top sportsbook reviewsĀ for the best odds on your favorite NCAA Football games before placing your bets.
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