Penn State to shock favored Michigan in defensive struggle

What: #3 Michigan vs #10 Penn State
When: Saturday, November 11th, 12:00 PM ET
Where: Beaver Stadium - Happy Valley, PA

There will be no shortage of Online college football betting as the college football season enters its crucial stage, and every game becomes a high-stakes chess match.

Buckle up for an epic Big Ten showdown, as the underdog Penn State Nittany Lions are primed to pull off a shocker against the mighty Michigan Wolverines.

Sure, Michigan is 9-0, but let's not forget that Penn State is sitting pretty at 8-1, with their only loss coming against the formidable Ohio State Buckeyes.

Game Preview (Moneyline)

In the world of college football, matchups matter. Big time. And in this gritty gridiron clash, Penn State's defense has the potential to turn this game into a slugfest.

Let's break down these moneyline odds before we get to why we're backing the Nittany Lions to pull the upset.


Michigan	-190	-200	-198
Penn State	+165	+170	+168

As you can see at Bovada, they've placed a +170 price on the Penn State moneyline. The implied probability of a +170 underdog winning is 37%.

This weekend, all eyes will be on Happy Valley, the battlefield where the #10 Penn State Nittany Lions will square off against the unbeaten #3 Michigan Wolverines.

Saturday. #107kStrong pic.twitter.com/GMrOvZ0ets

— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) November 9, 2023

Contrary to popular belief and the CFP rankings, this sports scribe is backing the Lions to roar louder and seize the day. Here's why:

Let's talk numbers, which don't lie. Penn State boasts a top-six FBS ranking in scoring offense (40.2 PPG) and defense (11.9 PPG). They're not just a bunch of scrappy underdogs - they're a well-oiled machine primed to give Michigan a run for its money.

The Nittany Lions' quarterback, Drew Aller, has been exceptional this season. With a whopping 20:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, Aller has been dealing dimes all season.

Then there's the Lions' defense, featuring stars like defensive end Adisa Isaac (6.5 sacks) and linebacker Curtis Jacobs (5 TFL). They're the brick wall determined to keep Michigan's tailback, Blake Corum, from finding the end zone.

Penn State Nittany Lions To win game

+170

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We know that Michigan's capabilities are formidable, yet their true prowess still needs to be tested as they play a ranked opponent for the first time since their defeat against TCU in the College Football Playoff last year.

My inclination suggests that despite their relatively unchallenging schedule, the Wolverines display considerable skill, showcasing dominance on both the offensive and defensive fronts throughout the season.

Meanwhile, the narrative surrounding the Nittany Lions provides us with ample insight.

While James Franklin's struggles against Ohio State, Michigan, and other top-10 teams at Penn State are widely acknowledged, their performance against the spread has been notably more resilient.

Although their record stands at 4-15 in these games, they boast a 9-10 overall performance (including 5-4 at home) against the spread.

It's understandable why the Wolverines are favored to the tune of -200 on the moneyline, but I would not bet on them this weekend.

Michigan Wolverines To win game

-200

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Total Points


Over 45 Points	-110	-105	-110
Under 45 Points	-110	-115	-110

And then we have the weather. Ah, yes, the great equalizer. It will be chilly in State College, with temperatures hovering around 40 degrees at kickoff.

The ball becomes a slippery beast in such conditions, and games often turn into defensive masterclasses.

It's in these low-scoring, gritty games that Penn State could thrive. If they win the turnover battle, they could well turn the tide of the game in their favor.

Now, let's address the elephant in the room - Michigan's defense. Yes, they've been excellent, allowing just 6.7 PPG. But Penn State's offense has shown they can put up numbers against strong defenses.

Plus, Michigan's been embroiled in an alleged sign-stealing investigation. Could this controversy throw them off their game? Only time will tell.

Will Big Ten punish Jim Harbaugh and/or Michigan football?

⁦@byAustinMeek⁩ and I explore Tony Petitti’s dilemma: https://t.co/ZuILYP9vkj

— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) November 5, 2023

Lastly, history is on Penn State's side.

The Nittany Lions have a habit of playing some of their best football when they have their backs against the wall. They've been here before, they're battle-tested, and they've got the home-field advantage.

So, to all you sports betting enthusiasts, here's the bottom line: This game feels like a low-scoring, slow-burning affair where the ball bounces the Nittany Lions' way.

Don't be surprised if Penn State pulls off the upset. Wolverines beware, the Lions are ready to pounce.

Under 45 Points Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

-115

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