Can SMU upset Penn State in College Football Playoff Matchup?

Tony Reyes
By , Updated on: Dec 11, 2024 12:00 AM
Can SMU upset Penn State in College Football Playoff Matchup?
  • What: College Football Playoff Game
  • When: December 21, 2024
  • Who:Ā  SMU vs. Penn State
  • Time:Ā  12:00 p.m. ET
  • Where: Beaver Stadium (Happy Valley, PA)

As the College Football Playoff kicks off, all eyes will be on the first-round matchup between the SMU Mustangs and the Penn State Nittany Lions.

With the spread set at 8.5 points in favor of Penn State, many might be quick to dismiss the Mustangs.

There will be no shortage ofĀ Online college football bettingĀ as the college football season continues, and every game becomes a high-stakes chess match.

However, a closer look at the stats and the current form of both teams suggests that SMU is more than capable of keeping this game competitive if not outright winning it.

First off, letā€™s talk about the Mustangsā€™ quarterback, Kevin Jennings. Since taking over as the starter, Jennings has been a revelation for SMU.

Heā€™s not just a passer; heā€™s a dual-threat quarterback who can make plays with his legs, adding a dynamic element to the Mustangsā€™ offense.

Jennings has racked up 379 rushing yards and five touchdowns this season, showcasing his ability to extend plays and keep defenses on their toes.

This versatility will be crucial against a Penn State defense that, while strong, has shown vulnerabilities when facing mobile quarterbacks.

Now, letā€™s dive into the numbers. SMU has been a scoring machine this season, averaging 38.5 points per game, which ranks them sixth nationally.

Theyā€™ve also demonstrated a knack for keeping games close, with both of their losses coming by just three points.

Game Preview (SMU vs. Penn State)

SpreadBetOnlineBetUSBovada
SMU +8.5 Points-107-110-110
Penn State -8.5 Points-113-110-110

This trend of tight games is significant, especially when considering the playoff atmosphere where every possession counts.

The Mustangs have proven they can hang with top-tier teams, and their ability to score quickly could put pressure on Penn Stateā€™s defense.

On the flip side, Penn Stateā€™s defense, while statistically impressive, has faced its share of challenges.

They rank eighth in scoring defense, but theyā€™ve allowed more than 30 points in a game only once this season, which was against Oregon.

However, the Nittany Lions have also shown they can be vulnerable against teams that can stretch the field and exploit mismatches.

Penn State -8.5 Points SMU vs. Penn State
Bovada
-110

SMUā€™s offensive line, despite some struggles, has been effective enough to give Jennings time to make plays, and if they can establish a run game, it could open up the passing attack.

While Penn State may be favored, the SMU Mustangs have all the tools to cover the 8.5-point spread in this first-round playoff game.

With a dynamic quarterback in Kevin Jennings, a high-scoring offense, and a defense that can create turnovers, SMU is set to keep this game close.

Expect a battle that could come down to the wire, and donā€™t be surprised if the Mustangs pull off the upset or at least keep it within a touchdown.

I would take the points and back SMU at -110 odds in this one.Ā 

SMU +8.5 Points SMU vs. Penn State
Bovada
-107

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Total Points (Mustangs vs. Nittany Lions)

Total PointsBetOnlineBetUSBovada
Over 53.5-110-110-110
Under 53.5-110-110-110

Moreover, the weather in State College could play a role in this matchup. If conditions are less than ideal, it could lead to a more conservative game plan from both teams, favoring the Mustangs who thrive in low-scoring affairs.

While not elite, SMUā€™s defense has been opportunistic, forcing 15 interceptions this season, ranking them 13th nationally. If they can create turnovers, it could swing the momentum in their favor and keep the game within reach.

The Nittany Lions are giving up an average of 16.4 points per game, placing them 8th in Division 1. This season, they have allowed a total of 1,347 rushing yards, averaging 103.6 yards per game, along with 7 rushing touchdowns.

Overall, they have surrendered 213 points. In the passing game, they have given up 16 touchdowns and 178.5 yards per game, ranking them 16th in the nation. They have recorded 5 fumbles and 12 interceptions throughout the season.

Letā€™s not forget about the psychological aspect of this game. SMU is riding high after a strong season, and their coach, Rhett Lashlee, has done an incredible job turning this program around.

The Mustangs are not just happy to be here; they believe they can compete with the best.

This confidence can be a game-changer, especially in a playoff setting where nerves can get the best of even the most seasoned teams.

I would bet the over in this one, I am expecting a high-scoring shootout in the 30s. Over 53.5 points at -110 odds is tremendous value.Ā 

Over 53.5 Points SMU vs. Penn State
BetUS
-110

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Meet the author

Tony Reyes

With years of experience as an analyst, Tony brings an expert voice to picks and predictions. His passion for sports betting is evident in his coverage, which not only informs and entertains but also shares his love for the game. When he's not watching or covering t...

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