Can Tennessee upset visiting Alabama in rivalry game?

What: NCAA Football Regular Season Game
When: October 19, 2024
Who: Alabama vs. Tennessee
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
Where: Neyland Stadium (Knoxville, TN)

On Saturday, the Tennesse Volunteers host the Alabama Crimson Tide at Neyland Stadium in one of college football's best rivalries. The annual “Third Saturday in October” sees Alabama and Tennessee renew their rivalry.

Alabama has won 16 of the last 17 matchups against Tennessee. After narrowly defeating South Carolina 27-25, the Crimson Tide, currently standing at 5-1, are favored by 3 points in this upcoming SEC clash.

There will be no shortage of Online college football betting as the college football season continues, and every game becomes a high-stakes chess match.

Tennessee's recent performance against a struggling Florida team, which required overtime and could have ended in a loss, has raised some questions about their form.

Coming off a 23-17 victory over Florida, Tennessee dropped three spots in the AP poll.

Game Preview

This is a massive game in the SEC, with the winner being much closer to a College Football Playoff birth. The path gets much more difficult with a loss on Saturday despite the talent both teams have.

Spread
Alabama -3	-115	-115	-120
Tennessee +3	-105	-105	+100

The Vols offense started the season hot, scoring 69 against Chattanooga, 71 against Kent State, and 51 against NC State.

However, as we've seen, Chattanooga and Kent State are among the weakest teams in college football, and NC State has struggled in the ACC.

Tennessee's offense has struggled against tougher opponents. It scored 25 points against Oklahoma, 14 at Arkansas, and 23 in overtime against Florida.

Excluding overtime, the Vols have averaged just 18.6 points per game in their last three games.

🔴🟠🏟️🔜

📅 Sat. Oct. 19
⌚️ 2:45 PM
📺 ABC #RollTide pic.twitter.com/4aniPx4J93

— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) October 17, 2024

Freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has faced challenges, with an average of only 174 passing yards in the past three games.

He has thrown just one touchdown pass and has been sacked 10 times. His struggles can be attributed to his decision-making under pressure.

He has been indecisive in the pocket, which has resulted in sacks, turnovers, delayed throws, and missed opportunities.

Tennessee +3 Points Alabama vs. Tennessee

-105

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Alabama's defense seems to have a significant advantage in this matchup. Unless Iamaleava's decision-making and composure under pressure show significant improvement, the Tide will likely be able to control this game.

However, the Crimson Tide's defense does seem to have a vulnerability, ranking 39th in defensive success rate against the rush.

The Vols likely lean on Dylan Sampson heavily at the start of the game to help ease Iamaleava into this tough matchup.

Alabama -3 Points Alabama vs. Tennessee

-115

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Total Points

Let's examine the total points prop in this one.

Total Points
Over 57	-112	-110	-115
Under 57	-108	-110	-105

Alabama has certainly been exposed on defense recently. Perhaps it's due to losing defensive-minded coach Nick Saban. New Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer is more of an offensive mind.

Alabama's defense has allowed a combined 60 points to Vanderbilt and South Carolina in its last two games.

On the other side of the field, Tennessee's defense has been exceptional in 2024, mainly due to the leadership of defensive coordinator Tim Banks. They currently rank second nationally in total defense, allowing only 249.8 yards per game.

Additionally, they are performing well in other key defensive metrics, such as yards per play (4), yards per rush (2.2), and third-down conversions allowed (23.8 percent).

While the Vols defense has been performing well this season, they haven't faced any player as talented as Alabama's Jalen Milroe.

defense flying around 💥#GBO 🍊 pic.twitter.com/VDpK9x8sd9

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) October 16, 2024

Milroe leads an Alabama offense that ranks 35th in total offense, averaging 442.3 yards per game and 10th in scoring with 41.7 points per game.

He has contributed 23 touchdowns and over 300 yards of offense, with a remarkable 73% completion rate.

Additionally, they have not faced a receiver of freshman Ryan Williams' caliber. Williams leads the team in receptions, receiving yards (96 per game) and touchdown catches (6), making him a standout player.

Oddsmakers have set the total at 57 points in this one and it feels like they've overestimated the offenses in this one.

I'd bet Under 57 points at -105 odds at Bovada.

Under 57 Points Alabama vs. Tennessee

-105

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