Can LSU Bounce Back Against Florida in SEC Showdown at The Swamp?

What: NCAA Football Regular Season Game
When: November 16, 2024
Who: LSU vs. Florida
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, FL)

No. 21 LSU (6-3) is set to travel to The Swamp in Week 12 for a Southeastern Conference clash with Billy Napier and the Florida Gators (4-5). This will be the 71st meeting between these two SEC Rivals.

LSU has won five straight games against Florida, including 52-35 last year. It has also won three of its last four in Gainesville.

The Tigers enter the matchup with a record of 6-3 overall and 3-2 in conference play, having suffered two consecutive losses.

Their most recent game resulted in a blowout loss against Alabama, 42-13.

On the other hand, Florida is 4-5 this season and 2-4 in conference competition. They are also on a two-game losing streak, with their latest game ending in a lopsided 49-17 loss to Texas.

There will be no shortage of Online college football betting as the college football season continues, and every game becomes a high-stakes chess match.

Game Preview (LSU vs. Florida)

LSU's offense, led by quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, has seen him throw for 2,866 yards with 21 touchdowns despite 11 interceptions and six sacks.

Spread
LSU -4.5	-105	-110	-110
Florida +4.5	-115	-110	-110

Kyren Lacy is the top receiver, with 46 catches for 697 yards and seven touchdowns, while Aaron Anderson and CJ Daniels provide additional support.

Caden Durham leads the SEC in rushing with 460 yards and six touchdowns. Although the team's defensive performance improved from last season, it still allows the most explosive plays.

Florida quarterback DJ Lagway has completed 56 out of 92 passes for 1,071 yards and throwing six touchdowns, though he has also thrown five interceptions.

Unfortunately, he has recently been sidelined due to an injury. With Graham Mertz out for the season, third-string quarterback Aidan Warner has struggled, having completed 21 of 50 passes this season for 228 yards and three interceptions.

In terms of receiving, Elijah Badger has been the standout performer, recording 24 receptions for 560 yards and two touchdowns. Chimere Dike is close behind with 28 catches totaling 523 yards and two touchdowns.

LSU -4.5 Points LSU vs. Florida

-105

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Eugene Wilson III has contributed as well, making 19 catches for 266 yards and one touchdown. On the ground, Jadan Baugh has been the leading rusher with 89 carries for 411 yards and six touchdowns.

If Lagway can play, his knack for seeking out big plays could pose a challenge for an LSU defense that tends to surrender them.

Offensively, the Tigers had to push hard to stay in the game against Alabama, but I believe they can find some balance against the Gators and manage to put together longer drives.

If Garrett Nussmeier has the protection he needs, he should be able to exploit this struggling secondary. The crucial matchup will be whether the Tigers can stop Florida from making big plays.

If Lagway is sidelined (or even if he isn't), Florida struggles to maintain drives. Hamstring issues are always a difficult injury to return from.

LSU Week. 🐊 pic.twitter.com/KPcl4fkeGc

— Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) November 11, 2024

Florida has faced some challenges recently, yet they've managed to cover the spread in five of their last six games, with four of those being as underdogs.

However, the fact that the spread is just 4.5 points suggests Lagway might still be in the game. I don't see the Gators being able to cover that line without him.

With the uncertainty regarding Lagway's health, I'd lay the 4.5 points and back LSU in this one.

Florida +4.5 Points LSU vs. Florida

-110

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Total Points

This year, Florida ranks 95th nationally in opponent points allowed per game and 105th in opponent yards allowed per game. They are 98th against the run and 90th against the pass.

Total Points
Over 55	-110	-110	-110
Under 55	-110	-110	-110

Trikweze Bridges is the team leader in tackles, and he has also recorded a pass breakup, an interception, and two forced fumbles. Jordan Castell contributes with a sack and five pass breakups.

Devin Moore has added two pass breakups and two interceptions to his stats this season. Lastly, Tyreak Sapp has notched 3.5 sacks and one forced fumble this year.

However, their defense has shown signs of decline. In their last four games, they've maintained a scoring average of 25.5 points, but the opposing teams have taken advantage, allowing 31.5 points per game, resulting in the over hitting in three of those contests.

LSU at Florida by the numbers pic.twitter.com/y0HOlAUsqk

— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) November 12, 2024

On the other side of the field, LSU ranks 64th in the country for opponent points allowed per game and 65th in opponent yards allowed per game. The squad is positioned 71st against the run and 69th against the pass.

LSU has experienced the under hitting in their last two games, although the over has been successful in three of their past five overall.

Considering Florida's struggling defense and LSU's offensive capabilities, it seems wise to go with the over for this matchup. I would bet Over 55 points at -110 odds in this one.

Over 55 Points LSU vs. Florida

-110

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