Tuesday night starts what is known as March Madness. Now, it is win or go home. North Carolina and San Diego State square in the opening play-in game. Tar Heels vs Aztecs bets examine some betting options in what is a very unexpected matchup from Dayton, Ohio.
- WHAT: North Carolina Tar Heels versus San Diego State Aztecs
- WHEN: Tuesday, March 18th, 2025, 9:10 pm ET on truTV, MAX
- WHERE: UD Arena, Dayton, Ohio
- WHY: Who advances to the first round to face Ole Miss on Friday afternoon?
Fans and pundits expect to notice an uptick of intensity at OSB. We heard the message and the goal is to bring the heat. Hey, March Madness Betting Odds 2025 are now here. It is a nice thing to say. The Tar Heels vs Aztecs bets examine at some wagers for the Tuesday night "First Four" or play-in game.
San Diego State vs North Carolina By The Numbers
Tar Heels vs Aztecs Bets Were Very Much Unexpected
Tar Heels vs Aztecs bets were very much unexpected. Bluntly, this goes way beyond ethics. However, North Carolina made it into the NCAA Tournament but now have a play-in game. It is a first in there school history and probably not the way the Tar Heels wanted to get into the dance. Then, there lies San Diego State. Yes, the Aztecs went 14-7 in the Mountain West and got rewarded with playing one of the most storied colleges in college basketball.
Currently, the selection committee has two controversies on its hands (see 19-15 Texas). Anyway, North Carolina went 1-12 in Quad 1 games. This is commonly known as higher-tiered competition. Granted, they lost to Duke in a very close affair but that was without star player Cooper Flagg. Yes, 15 conference wins (two postseason) mean little when a team does not beat much in the quality department.
San Diego State is one of those tournament teams no one truly wants to play. Brian Dutcher's team plays defense and rather well too. The Aztecs rank 14th in points allowed (63.6). San Diego State's defensive rating hovered in the Top 10 or 15 all season. For a team like North Carolina, this is probably the worst-case scenario. Playing a team that has a tournament mentality, being favored, and in a First Four contest are all not optimal.
Now, can San Diego State pull off what would not truly be an upset? Will North Carolina find a way to advance?
Can San Diego State Get To Friday?
Tar Heels vs Aztecs bets ask can San Diego State get to Friday? This game levies more pressure on North Carolina. Some believe that San Diego State should be a favorite of sorts. Now, the early movement suggests a few interesting theories. For one, the bettors are a little apprehensive. Keep an eye on that 3.5 point spread. It could move at any time between now and tip-off on Tuesday night.
The Tar Heels have a 60-70% chance of winning according to most predictive websites and models. ESPN and The Athletic, among others, weighed in on the matchup. Certainly, North Carolina expects to be the favorite when action starts but will San Diego State be the ones heading to face Ole Miss on Friday afternoon in a South Regional contest?
Anyway, Dutcher gets the most out of his teams. San Diego State reached the Sweet 16 last year and the National Championship game the year before that. North Carolina's results are far less glorious. Again, the Aztecs use guard play and defensive intensity to stifle opponents. North Carolina hopes to shoot better from the field but have not shown that much versus quality opposition. Defensively, the Tar Heels allow 75 points per game. Do not expect them to score 80 on Tuesday night either.
Now, the wildcard might be Magoon Gwath. Gwath is a 7-footer who can run the floor on occasion. Combine him with Jared-Coleman Jones and that is a dynamic front court. Jones is the muscle here at 240 and the Tar Heels do not have the players to contain both. This is what allows San Diego State to assert tempo. It is also why we like San Diego State on the moneyline here on Tuesday night.
Tar Heels vs Aztecs Bets Offer More Options
So, Tar Heels vs Red Raiders bets offer up more options. The two teams play in such a contrasting way that the game could go one of two ways. Either this is way off and the tempo ticks much higher or indeed this trends towards more sloppy play and less scoring. Opting for the latter is a safer wager. North Carolina tried to play his way at the ACC Tournament. They allowed 56, 59, and 74 points in three contests.
Okay, projected numbers started at 144.5 for the opening. Would anyone be surprised by a score in the 65-70 range for each team in this tilt? Nerves could play a role in this one. The second play-in games often produce surprising results. Most want to trend higher but the prevailing numbers suggest otherwise. How low does one go?
Are there other choices for us to ponder? That under 69.5 points for North Carolina rolls in at +175 on BetUS. Among a few other wagers might be those popular Race To 10 and Race To 15 scenario. The Aztecs are Even and +115 respectively. Currently the Game Total dipped from 144.5 to 142.5. Expect potentially another dip and then some possible pushback. One can go a little conservative like we are here and opt for the 142.5 and Under.
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