Rockets to upset Warriors in Game 4 to even up Western Conference playoff series

What: NBA Picks
Who: Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets
When: Monday, April 28, 10:00 p.m.

Steph Curry delivered a vintage playoff performance in Saturday night's 104-93 victory over Houston, finishing with 36 points, nine assists and seven rebounds to give his Warriors a 2-1 series lead.

When a NBA Playoff series is tied at one win apiece, the winner of a Game 3 has gone on to win almost 75% of the time. Can the Rockets buck the trend and even the best-of-seven series up in Golden State on Monday?

Let's look at the latest betting lines for Game 4. Odds are subject to change.

	Spread	Money Line	Total Points
Houston Rockets	+3.5 (-110)	+140	Ov 203.0 (-110)
Golden State Warriors	-3.5 (-110)	-165	Un 203.0 (110)

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Warriors vs Rockets Betting Trends

Golden State is a 3.5-point favorite at Chase Center, where they finished the year with a 24-17 record.

The No. 7 seed Warriors were only 19-23-1 against the spread at home during the regular season with a 14-18-1 mark as home favorites. However, they easily covered in Game 3 against Houston, winning by 11 points.

The No. 2 seed Rockets were 23-17 record away from home during the regular season with a 10-9-1 mark as road underdogs.

The over/under for Monday's game is set at only 203 points. Both Game 1 (180 points) and Game 3 (197 points) went UNDER that total while Game 2 barely hit the over (205). The OVER went 24-17 in Houston road games this season and 21-22 in Golden State home contests.

Steph Curry is the oldest player in NBA history to have a playoff game with:

30+ PTS
5+ REB
5+ AST
5+ 3PM pic.twitter.com/u4BI1nLZDE

— Polymarket Hoops (@StatMamba) April 27, 2025

Will Jimmy Butler be back?

Jimmy Butler missed Game 3 with a deep glute muscle contusion. The Warriors are reportedly hopeful he’ll suit up in Game 4, but Steve Kerr also struck an optimistic tone before Saturday's contest. With a 2-1 series lead, don't be surprised in Playoff Jimmy is out of the lineup once again.

Steph Curry stepped up in Butler's absence on Saturday, sparking a 9-0 run to end the 1st half that cut the Rockets lead from 12 to 3. The four-time NBA champion stayed hot throughout the 2nd half, finishing with 36 points on 12-of-23 shooting.

Can Rockets rebound in Game 4?

Jalen Green scored 38 points in Houston's 109-94 Game 2 win with eight 3-pointers, but was held to just nine points in Saturday's loss. He also struggled in Game 1, putting up only 7 points on 3-15 shooting in the 95-85 defeat.

While Alperen Sengun has been solid throughout the series, Green is the Rockets only outside shooting threat. Ime Udoka's club will need their star guard to be much more efficient and on target on Monday night.

Jalen Green talks about the exchange between him and Draymond at the end of the game. pic.twitter.com/7TfxJ42FAx

— ESPN (@espn) April 27, 2025

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets NBA Picks

Keep an eye on Jimmy Butler's playing status. If he misses Game 4, we like Houston (+140) to win straight up and even the best-of-seven series at 2 with the OVER (203).

Houston Rockets To win vs Warriors