Jokic poised to win third MVP in close race over Luka

Before we get into the leading candidates for the award let's discuss how the award is voted on.

The NBA's Most Valuable Player (MVP) award is determined by a panel of 100 media members consisting of both national and local analysts.

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Solely regular-season games are considered, with ballots due shortly after the season concludes.

The absence of specific criteria for voters has led to a broad interpretation of "value," sparking debates and discussions in media cycles and podcasts every March-April.

While there's no defined rubric, voters typically lean towards awarding the MVP to a player leading a dominant team campaign, often summarized as the "best player on the best team."

Statistics remain a crucial factor, but the landscape has evolved with the rise of analytic models.

Traditional stats like points, rebounds, and assists carry less raw weight, with advanced metrics such as win shares, plus-minus, and VORP (value over replacement player) taking precedence in discussions.

MVP moments throughout the season also sway voters, such as impressive performances in significant games, outshining rivals in head-to-head matchups, and delivering clutch plays.

In the era of load management, a player's availability becomes increasingly important.

The league's new 65-game minimum for award contenders aims to address this, emphasizing the inherent value of a player who consistently suits up.

Voter fatigue plays a role in the MVP selection process, with media members sometimes opting for a different player out of boredom or contrarianism, even if a player has won multiple awards.

This trend has been observed in the cases of Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and Nikola Jokic, indicating that voter fatigue is an enduring aspect of the MVP discussion that is likely to recur.


Nikola Jokic	+175	+175	+175
Luka Doncic	+425	+425	+425
Joel Embiid	+650	+650	+650
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+900	+900	+900
Jayson Tatum	+1200	+1200	+1200
Giannis Antetokounmpo	+1300	+1300	+1300
Tyrese Haliburton	+1500	+1500	+1500
Kevin Durant	+2500	+2500	+2500
Anthony Edwards	+3000	+3000	+3000
Devin Booker	+3500	+3500	+3500

Nikola Jokic

Heading into the summer, Nikola Jokic was a front-runner for the MVP across major sportsbooks, despite dedicating more time to his stables than the basketball court.

Anticipating a potential championship hangover for the Nuggets, especially given Jokic's history of slow starts, some pundits speculated about the team's early-season performance.

December 8th, 2023
Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic Highlights:

23 Pts, 16 Reb, 5 Asst, 2 Stl
.346 FG%, +3 https://t.co/CuHfRi91sG pic.twitter.com/W8pf339bpi

— Joe Sakic Fan (@Devilito02) December 12, 2023

However, Jokic has swiftly dispelled those concerns, delivering the kind of superhero-like statistics (28 points, 13 rebounds, 10 assists on .607 true shooting) that have become synonymous with his play.

Despite Denver's recent challenges, the prevailing sentiment in NBA media circles is that Jokic stands unparalleled, with discussions even suggesting that he might have deserved the MVP from the previous season.

Nikola Jokic To win 2024 NBA MVP

+175

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Luka Doncic

Despite being the preseason favorite for the third consecutive year, Luka Doncic has experienced a decline in his MVP prospects.

The concerns are due to the lack of support from his team in Dallas, especially after last season's playoff disappointment.

While Doncic's individual brilliance is universally acknowledged, their inconsistent performance has hindered the Mavericks' ability to contend, crucial for MVP consideration.

The MVP award tends to favor players from teams within the Top-3 seed in their conference, and this has been a challenge for Doncic.

This pass from Luka 🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/DpGdIn7aRJ

— Dallas Texas TV (@DallasTexasTV) December 13, 2023

In a highly competitive Western Conference, where many teams are vying for playoff spots, the Mavericks may find themselves in another Play-In situation.

However, Doncic is doing everything in his power to elevate Dallas to a higher level. In the season's first quarter, he is averaging an impressive 32 points, 8 rebounds, and 9 assists.

Those strong numbers are contributing to the Mavericks' 14-8 record and securing a spot in the coveted Top-3 seed, significantly strengthening his MVP candidacy.

Luka Doncic To win 2024 NBA MVP

+425

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Joel Embiid

The reigning MVP, Joel Embiid, among the initial front-runners, demands recognition.

Despite the Sixers' disappointing postseason elimination, Embiid's regular-season performance was exceptional, leading in scoring and delivering exceptional rim protection.

"I want to win a championship, [a lot of MVPs, a lot of Defensive Player of the Year]... If I get voted or not, I can't control that... I'm gonna do whatever is necessary that helps [the Sixers] win."

—Joel Embiid

(via "Maxey On The Mic", @NBA) pic.twitter.com/QIGMmMoJ94

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) December 12, 2023

Although, if feels like Tyrese Maxey's rise to stardom has taken away some of the shine from Embiid, he's still been a great player this season.

Assuming he stays healthy, anticipate Embiid to mount a strong defense of his MVP title, ideally benefiting from an even more supportive environment.

Joel Embiid To win 2024 NBA MVP

+650

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