Thunder overpower Mavs to take 1-0 series lead

When: Tuesday, May 7th at 10:00 PM ET
Who: Dallas Mavericks at OKC Thunder
Where: Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK
What: NBA Western Conference Semifinals Playoffs game 1

After an impressive closeout of the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs, the Mavericks now face the top-seeded Thunder in the Western Conference Semifinals, surprising many with their status as narrow underdogs.

Bolstered by the dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks boast a potent offense that propelled them to a 50-32 record and the fifth seed in the West.

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With both teams coming off strong performances in the previous round, this series promises to be an intriguing battle. Let's delve into our Mavericks-Thunder prediction and picks.

However, their offensive prowess didn't fully translate in the first round. They ranked 8th in field goal percentage and 7th in offensive rating among playoff teams.

Moneyline
Dallas Mavericks	+140	+135	+130
Oklahoma City Thunder	-160	-155	-150

While the Mavericks displayed glimpses of their formidable defense during the regular season, their performance against the Clippers didn't fully match their potential.

Despite this, they still managed a respectable defensive rating of 109.5 in the series.

Yet, it's essential to acknowledge that the Mavericks faced a Clippers team missing Kawhi Leonard for much of the series, and they still dropped two games.

Therefore, facing a well-rounded Thunder team that boasted top-4 rankings in offensive and defensive rating during the regular season presents a significant challenge.

OKC Thunder To win game

-155

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OKC also enjoys a rest advantage and homecourt advantage after sweeping New Orleans in the first round, so I'm inclined to favor them in Game 1.

The Mavericks have relied heavily on the dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but they'll need contributions from their supporting cast to succeed against the Thunder's depth.

LuKai things 🪄♾️ @luka7doncic and @KyrieIrving combined for 3️⃣3️⃣8️⃣ points in Round 1. That’s the most by a duo in their first playoff series together in NBA history. #OneForDallas // #MFFL pic.twitter.com/1sp1FgYNxF

— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) May 6, 2024

Although Dallas boasts more experience, the youthful Thunder have showcased an exciting brand of basketball led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren.

Offensively, the Mavericks have been potent all season, ranking among the top teams in scoring and shooting efficiency.

However, their defense could have been more consistent, posing a challenge against the Thunder's high-powered offense.

Dallas Mavericks To win game

+135

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Total Points

Let's go ahead and discuss the total points prop in this game.

Total Points
Over 217.5 Points	-110	-110	-110
Under 217.5 Points	-110	-110	-110

The total seems low, but oddsmakers have put a 217.5 number out as of this writing.

While I understand that the game slows down in the playoffs, the pace that both teams played during the regular season doesn't add up to 217 points.

The Mavericks and Thunder were in the top 8 teams regarding the pace of play. In addition to playing quickly, both teams had outstanding offenses. The Thunder averaged 120 points per game, while the Mavericks averaged 117.9 points.

Dallas Mavericks F/C Maxi Kleber has suffered a full dislocation of the AC joint in his right shoulder, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium. Kleber is out for a significant period of time, if not the entire postseason. Tough loss for Mavs' frontcourt. pic.twitter.com/PlqcA8uylt

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) May 4, 2024

I can't figure out why oddsmakers have set this total so low. The Mavericks recently announced that Maxi Kleber will be out with a separated shoulder for the series.

Kleber isn't a starting player for the Mavs, but he is a supporting role player, so I don't think his absence is why the total is so low.

I recommend betting Over 217.5 points in this one at -110 odds at BetUS.

Over 217.5 points Dallas Mavericks vs. OKC Thunder

-110

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