Wurth 400 Picks: Kyle Larson Clear-Cut Favorite at Dover

What: Wurth 400
When: Sunday, April 28th
Where: Dover International Speedway

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover International Speedway on Sunday afternoon for the yearly Wurth 400. After a slew of races on superspeedways, this event on an intermediate track should be less hectic. Tyler Reddick came out victorious last weekend at the Geico 500 in thrilling fashion, but he isn't the favorite here. Kyle Larson (+400) is. Larson has been solid on intermediate tracks for years and the points leader is expected to produce the goods this weekend. Other contenders include Martin Truex Jr (+675), Denny Hamlin (+800), William Byron (+800), Ross Chastain (+900), Ty Gibbs (+1000), and Christopher Bell (+1200). Continue reading for the Wurth 400 picks.

Before we get into the analysis, odds, and predictions for this race, check out our how-to bet on NASCAR page.

Wurth 400 Odds

Driver
Kyle Larson	+400	+550	+450
Martin Truex Jr	+675	+650	+650
Denny Hamlin	+800	+800	+750
Ross Chastain	+900	+700	+700
Ty Gibbs	+1000	+1400	+1300
Christopher Bell	+1200	+1200	+1100
Chase Elliott	+1200	+1200	+1200
Ryan Blaney	+1400	+1600	+1500
Alex Bowman	+1800	+1400	+1600
Tyler Reddick	+1800	+1800	+1600

The Wurth 400 is a 400-mile race in Dover, Delaware. There are 120 laps in stages one and two and 160 in the final stage. Truex Jr has won this race three times and is the defending champion. Joe Gibbs Racing or Hendrick Motorsports has won nine of the last 10 events.

Kyle Larson (+400)

As previously mentioned, Larson performs well on short tracks. This season, he's finished second at Martinsville, third at Richmond, fifth at Bristol, and 13th at Phoenix. The Cup Series leader has one win, four top-fives, and four top-10s in 2024 and has led for the most laps on the circuit with 531. Larson also has five stage wins. He won this race in 2019 and has had numerous top-10 finishes since, but Larson did come in 32nd a year ago. He was 21st last weekend at Talladega and definitely needs a bounce-back performance.

Martin Truex Jr (+675)

Overall, Truex Jr has four wins at Dover in his career and three at this race. It's honestly rare for him to not finish in the top-10 at the absolute minimum at Dover. Truex Jr is only 15 points behind Larson at the moment and just finished 11th at the Geico 500. He's yet to actually win a race this season but he's got two top-fives and five top-10s. Truex Jr is due for a victory and there's no better time for it than Sunday at a place where he's enjoyed success before.

Denny Hamlin (+800)

Hamlin is another driver who tends to thrive at Dover. He's finished in the top-seven here in six of his last nine appearances and even won in 2020. Short tracks are a strong suit for Hamlin too, with both of his victories in 24' coming at Bristol and Richmond. He's sixth in the standings at the moment. However, Hamlin's recent form isn't exactly anything to write home about. He finished 30th in Fort Worth and then 37th at Talladega. Is that a trend or will he turn things around? Only time will tell. But based on his Dover track record, he'll likely be in the mix on Sunday.

William Byron (+800)

Byron is another one to keep an eye on. He was fourth in three of his last four Dover appearances and has the most wins this season with three. Byron isn't far off first place, currently sitting in fourth. He's on quite the heater right now, too. Byron is seventh, third, first, seventh, and first in his last five outings. There's something to be said for someone who is driving this well. In fact, no one in the Cup Series is this consistent over the last month. For that reason alone, Byron must be considered a contender at Dover.

Ross Chastain (+900)

It's been a downright brutal year thus far for Chastain, who is typically one of the better drivers on the Cup Series circuit. He's way down in ninth with just one top-five finish and four top 10s while failing to win a single race. Chastain hasn't finished better than 13th place in his last four outings. However, Chastain was a runner-up in this exact race in 2023.

Chase Elliott (+1200)

Elliott may be a dark horse. With five top-fives in his last eight Dover appearances, Elliott is one to monitor. He's climbing the standings, now sitting in third place. Elliott has one victory to go along with three top-fives and four top-10s. He's slowly finding his best again after a brutal 23' campaign that was disrupted by injuries and suspensions.