Short-priced Denny Hamlin worth avoiding at the Brickyard 400 from Indianapolis

Race 22 of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series is the Brickyard 400 from the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The Green Flag drops at 2.30 pm ET, and when it does, Denny Hamlin is expected to win by the best NASCAR betting sites. The No.11 Toyota driver is just +350 to win the race. Have the bookies got it right? We tell you the answer in our latest NASCAR betting picks.

What: Brickyard 400
Where: Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Indianapolis, Indiana
When: Sunday, July 21st, 2024
Green Flag Drop: 2.30 p.m ET
Laps: 160
Distance: 400 Miles

The iconic Indianapolis Motor Speedway circuit is a 2.5-mile-long rectangular-shaped oval track. Constructed in 1909, it has a banking of 9.2 degrees on the turns and zero degrees on the two 1,000-meter straights.

The winner of this race in 2023 was Michael McDowell, with Chase Elliott in second, and Daniel Suarez in third. Don’t let that race influence this year’s picks.

The 2023 edition was run on the inner road circuit at Indianapolis. So it was basically a completely different race to what we are going to see this Sunday, as the race returns to the 2.5-mile traditional circuit.

Who is the favorite to win the 2024 Brickyard 400?

The betting favorite to win the 2024 Brickyard 400 is Denny Hamlin at +350.

Why is Denny Hamlin so short in the betting? He is 0-15 on the Indianapolis Oval. But he has five top-six finishes at the oval in his last seven starts on this circuit.

Furthermore, with no recent history of this race (the race was held on the inner-road circuit since 2021), there is nothing to go on from a betting perspective, the most recent form is all we have to call on.

Interestingly, this race could be run on a similar strategy to last weekend in Pocono, where Hamlin finished second to Ryan Blaney.

Does this make Hamlin a good value betting favorite at +350? I’m not so sure.

Second in the betting is Kyle Larson at +600, while last Sunday’s winner in the HighPoint.com 400, Ryan Blaney is +750 to win back-to-back races. The only other driver starting race week under +1000 is Brad Keselowski at +800.

More NASCAR Brickyard 400 betting is on our NASCAR betting table. For more information on the sportsbooks we use, please check out our NASCAR betting online apps page. And to bag yourself a great new customer offer for NASCAR betting check out our betting bonuses and promotions page.

Driver
Denny Hamlin	+350	+350	+350
Kyle Larson	+600	+600	+600
Ryan Blaney	+750	+750	+750
Brad Keselowski	+800	+800	+800
Chase Elliott	+1100	+1100	+1100
William Byron	+1100	+1100	+1100
Martin Truex Jr.	+1200	+1200	+1200
Christopher Bell	+1200	+1200	+1200
Tyler Reddick	+1200	+1200	+1200
Joey Logano	+1400	+1400	+1400
Ty Gibbs	+1600	+1600	+1600
Chris Buescher	+1600	+1600	+1600
Alex Bowman	+2800	+2800	+2800
Bubba Wallace	+3000	+3000	+3000
Ross Chastain	+3000	+3000	+3000
Kyle Busch	+3500	+3500	+3500

2024 NASCAR Cup Series Winner Betting

Chase Elliott is back at the top of the 2024 Cup Series points table. Elliott regained the top spot from Kyle Larson following his ninth-place finish at Pocono last Sunday. Kyle Larson could only manage a 13th-place finish.

With yesterday’s P9 finish, Chase Elliott is now the Cup Series point leader. pic.twitter.com/VXenjT7y2y

— Hendrick Motorsports (@TeamHendrick) July 15, 2024

Despite losing the top spot in the points table, Larson is still at the top of the betting to win the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series. Along with Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson is a joint-favorite at +450. The trio has led the betting for some weeks now.

Behind the market leaders is William Byron at +600 and Ryan Blaney at +800. Points table leader Chase Elliott is +1000. Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, and Martin Truex Jr. are all +1400 to win the Cup Series title this year.

Kyle Larson To win 2024 NASCAR Cup Series

+450

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Picks to win the 2024 Brickyard 400

First up, we are not backing Denny Hamlin to win at +350. Yes, he is well able to win the race, but so are Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, and a whole host of other drivers. We just don’t feel that Hamlin is a good value pick at those odds.

Kyle Larson to win +600

We believe that Kyle Larson has been the best driver on the circuit in 2024. He has his moments and a disappointing 13th-place finish at Pocono last Sunday doesn’t do anything to inspire confidence this week.

But we also know Larson is one of these guys who has a strong desire to do something spectacular. He lost the top spot to Chase Elliott in the points table last week, and his last two showings have been poor.

With the race returning to the iconic IMS oval this year it would be just like Larson to go and win it. Kyle Larson to win the Brickyard 400 is our race winner betting pick.

Kyle Larson To win Brickyard 400

+600

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Ryan Blaney to finish in the top five +100

Ryan Blaney won at Pocono last Sunday. He managed a respectable tenth on the streets of Chicago, and at Nashville, he finished sixth. Okay, differing tracks, but I think we can all agree he is in good form.
We expect the IMS oval to suit Blaney’s style. Blaney to finish in the top five at +100 is our second race pick.

Ryan Blaney Top Five Finish at the Brickyard 400

+100

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Alex Bowman to finish in the top ten +100

Alex Bowman is another driver on a roll.

Last Sunday he finished third at Pocono, and the week before he won on the Chicago Street Circuit. Yes, we know the win in Chicago will have little comparison to the circuit he will be racing on this weekend, but the performance at Pocono does.

Bowman is +400 for a top-five finish and +100 for a top-ten finish. Don’t be shy about backing him to break the top five for a third successive race. But we’re playing it safe for our pick and backing Bowman to finish in the top ten for our final betting pick.

Alex Bowman Top Ten Finish at the Brickyard 400

+100

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