The first of the MLB League Championship Series starts on Tuesday, and I think itâs fair to say that not many people predicted it would be the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies who would be competing in the NLCS. Here we look at their upcoming series and name our NLCS betting picks.
The matches start on Tuesday, and it is a best of seven series. The series criteria sees the first two games taking place in San Diego. Then the third, fourth, and fifth matches are in Philadelphia, with the series heading back to San Diego for matches six and seven, if required.
You probably donât need me to tell you this (unless youâre new to MLB), the winners of this series will go into the 2022 World Series final.
The best MLB betting sites have the series betting close. BetOnline makes the Padres the slight favorites to win at -125, while the same sportsbook has the Phillies at +105.
The odds for this market are provided by BetOnline. Why not check out their latest betting offers in our BetOnline sportsbook review.
Padres also hold the advantage in 2022 World Series betting
As well as being favorites to win the NLCS, the Padres are also favored above the Phillies in the betting to win the 2022 World Series. The overall favorites tag goes to the Houston Astros at +150, with the Padres at +325, and the Phillies not far behind at +350.
Such odds were unthinkable recently. At the start of the 2022 MLB postseason playoffs both sides were +1200, and earlier in the season you would easily have picked up +1800 on the Phillies. Thatâs all changed now, and below we look in more detail at why.
Wide open NLCS after shock Division Seriesâ results
In the NLDS, the Padres were up against the Dodgers, and the Phillies were up against the Braves.
The Dodgers won 111 regular season matches. Five more than the team with the second best record (Houston Astros 106), and 22 wins more than the Padres. They also had a 14-5 regular season record over the Padres.
The Atlanta Braves were defending the World Series title they won against the Astros last year. They had an outstanding second half of the season, catching the New York Mets to win the NL East, having been over ten wins behind earlier in the year.
There could only be two winners from these matches, surely?
Not a bit of it, both the Padres and the Phillies won, and with a game to spare as both completed 3-1 winning score lines.
Padres win three on the spin to end Dodgers hopes
When the Dodgers won the opening match of the series 5-3 at Dodgers Stadium, not many would have expected what came next. Yes, the Padres had looked on song when beating the Mets in the wild card match, but surely the Dodgers would be a step too far?
You must be joking! The Padres stormed back, winning 5-3 in the second match at the Dodgers Stadium, and then they won a close third match 2-1 to take the series lead. That felt like the crucial match in the series. Another 5-3 win in match four sealed the win.
Goose-night San Diego, see ya in the NLCS. #CaptureTheMoment pic.twitter.com/DpB3CQSw20
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) October 17, 2022
Rampant Phillies to hot too handle for the Braves
The Phillies came out of the blocks fast in their opening match against the Braves, racing into a 6-1 lead at the end of the fourth innings. They only won that match 7-6 in the end. But when the Braves won the second match 3-0, it looked like the resumption of normal service.
The Phillies had other ideas though, and when they got the defending champions to Citizens Bank Park, they simply destroyed them. Wins of 9-1 in match three, and 8-3 in match four finished the series off with a match to spare.
Reliving this moment all. day. long. pic.twitter.com/a1Zv1ACeS2
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) October 16, 2022
Padres v Phillies; NLCS Betting Picks
Wouldnât it just be like the Padres to do the hard work by knocking out the Dodgers, and then go and lose to the Phillies?
The Padres are the favorites, and they have the advantage of having four home ties, to the Phillies three. San Diego also won three on the spin against the Dodgers having lost the opening match 5-3. Surely, that makes them the form team?
But then look at the form of Philadelphia, and would it be a shock to see the Phillies win? No, it wouldnât.
They won their last two matches to make it to the NLCS, but look at the scorelines. Wins of 9-1 and 8-3 over the Braves is outstanding form, and itâs highly unlikely that the Padres can live with that if the Phillies can revive that form when the series goes to Citizens Bank Park for matches three, four and five.
If the Phillies can find one win at Petco Park in the opening two matches, they will really be in pole position to win the series. I can see them doing it, and at +105 they are better value, so Iâm making the Philadelphia Phillies my betting pick to win the NLCS.
