- When: Thursday, July 11th at 1:05 PM ET
- Who: Washington Nationals vs New York Mets
- Starting Pitchers: MacKenzie Gore and David Petersen
- Where: Citi Field in Queens, NY
The Washington Nationals will conclude their three-game series against the New York Mets on Thursday at Citi Field. Here's our Nationals-Mets prediction.
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Game Preview
| Moneyline |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | +124 | +125 | +117 |
| New York Mets | -135 | -135 | -140 |
Despite the recent setbacks, the Nationals are determined to stay in the playoff race.
They have gone 3-7 in their last 10 games. They now trail the San Diego Padres by 5.5 games for the final wildcard spot in the National League.
The Nationals' offense has been lackluster, ranking 19th in batting average and on-base percentage, 18th in runs, 29th in home runs, and 26th in slugging percentage.
Despite these struggles, they have a few hitters who can make an impact.
CJ Abrams, the Nationals' top performer, believes the team is on the right track. Leading the team in hits and home runs, he is a key player.
However, he needs support from teammates like Jesse Winker, Keibert Ruiz, and Luis Garcia Jr., who all have the potential to make a significant impact.
Abrams struggled in the series opener, but Ruiz has shown power potential by hitting a home run.
The Nationals' pitching has been a major issue, with MacKenzie Gore failing to record a quality start in his last four outings. Gore has a 1-2 record with a 3.96 ERA in five starts against the Mets.
Yep sirrrrrrr 🫡 pic.twitter.com/MLAjzU42GK
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) July 10, 2024
When Gore exits, the Nationals will rely on an inconsistent bullpen that ranks 16th in team ERA.
The Nationals need to build an early lead and have Gore pitch effectively to cover the spread.
This is because a strong start and effective pitching can put pressure on the Mets, potentially leading to a victory for the Nationals.
The Mets, on the other hand, are in a good position, still in the playoff race and just 1.5 games behind the Padres for the final wildcard spot.
Their recent success is impressive and shows their determination.
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Total Runs
They have bounced back from a poor season, ranking 10th in batting average and runs, 11th in on-base percentage, fourth in home runs, and eighth in slugging percentage.
Francisco Lindor leads the Mets in hits, and Pete Alonso is a power threat with a chance to hit 35 home runs by season's end.
Starling Marte and JD Martinez must contribute to support Lindor and Alonso.
The Mets covered the spread on Tuesday by scoring four runs in the second inning and adding two more in the sixth, with home runs from Brandon Nimmo and Lindor.
This offensive support was crucial for their pitching staff.
David Peterson must provide stability for a struggling pitching staff and relieve pressure on a bullpen that ranks 20th in team ERA.
How 'bout another W? #MetsWin #LGM pic.twitter.com/dA5aIapALL
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 11, 2024
The Mets will cover the spread if their offense continues to produce and Peterson pitches effectively, turning the game over to the bullpen with a lead.
Despite being a mediocre team, the Nationals excel at covering the spread.
Given the Mets' 20-26 record against the spread at home, expect the Nationals to keep the game close and cover the odds on the road.
I'd also expect this to be a high-scoring affair and would bet this over all the way to 9.5 runs.
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