- When: Wednesday, August 16 at 6:40 PM ET
- Who: Houston Astros at Miami Marlins
- Starting Pitchers: Justin Verlander and Jesus Luzardo
- Where: loanDepot Park in Miami, FL
If you've been following the MLB scene, you know that last night's game between the Miami Marlins and the Houston Astros was a close shave. Astros took the game 6-5, but the final scoreline only tells part of the story.
Before continuing, please check out our MLB Betting Guide, which will help you prepare for any MLB props you may be interested in.
Game Preview
After seven innings, it was still a nail-biter at 2-1. The Marlins gave as good as they got, and that's why we're backing them to bounce back big time in tonight's matchup.
First off, let's talk about the Astros' recent win. Sure, they had a good game. But let's be real here; they were pretty lucky. Plenty of balls hit with exit velocities over 100 mph resulted in outs.
Baseball can be brutal, and the Astros' win was more about the Marlins' unfortunate fielding than their own prowess. So, we're not buying the hype here.
Now, taking a look at the upcoming game, things are shaping up nicely for Miami. The Astros are handing the ball to Justin Verlander. He's consistent, but he's only giving the team around six innings and two or three runs. That's not enough to scare the Marlins, especially with Jesus Luzardo taking the mound.
Justin Verlander, Wicked Sliders. 🤢
5Ks thru 4 pic.twitter.com/BJiWjXJFGy
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 12, 2023
Verlander has been solid in his return with the Astros; this matchup is two teams peaking at the right time. The Marlins tally up some runs on Verlander early and force the Astros bullpen to deal with them.
On the Marlins end, they are sending out Jesus Luzardo, while his record is only 8-7, Luzardo has delivered 12 quality starts this season for the Marlins. He has been dominating hitters to the tune of 157 strikeouts this season.
Plus, the Marlins have been hitting the ball well. They've kept the Astros on their toes with some hard hits and are about to start finding the gaps in the field. The Astros might have one of the best bullpens in baseball, but they're not invincible.
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Total Runs
Let's take a look at another interesting market in this game, the total runs. One would often assume, with two quality pitchers on the mound that we are in for a low-scoring game.
I am not so convinced, these teams offenses are too talented. Regardless of the pitchers on the mound, we're going to see some runs. The total is currently set at 7.5 runs and I love the over in this one.
Last night was legendary!
First time since 1998 we hit back to back to back homers. @budweiserusa x #MakeItMiami pic.twitter.com/wgiWoEtkNh
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) August 15, 2023
I would recommend betting over 7.5 runs in this game at -120 odds. The implied probability of those odds is 54% so more often than not, this will go over the total.
We're calling it for the Marlins. They've been outperforming their results, and tonight's the night they're going to get their reward.
The Astros had their day, but the Marlins are ready to write their own comeback story. It'll be a thrilling game, and we're eager to see the Marlins prove their mettle.
Remember, in sports, as in life; it's not about how you start but how you finish. The Marlins are down but not out. They're ready to fight back, and we're here for it. So, sit back, relax, and prepare for a game that promises to be as exciting as we're predicting. Buckle up, folks. It's gonna be a wild ride.
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